Where’s the rain? What to know about SoCal’s dry, windy weather forecast

Good morning. Here’s what you need to know to start your day.

• What to know about SoCal’s dry, windy weather forecast.
• The family of an Eaton fire victim sues Southern California Edison, claiming wrongful death.
• At these free shops in L.A., fire victims can pick up new clothes and ‘a bit of happiness.’
• And here’s today’s e-newspaper.

Some rain would be nice (but bring new risks)

When will fire-ravaged, wind-pummeled, dried-out Los Angeles County get some relief?

A reprieve from dangerous fire weather is on tap for the weekend, but forecasters warn that another round of punishing winds may hit the region next week, re-upping the risks.

“Exacerbating the fire weather situation is that January is the peak month for Santa Ana winds — powerful winds that develop when high pressure over Nevada and Utah sends cold air screaming toward lower pressure areas along the California coast,” Times reporter Rong-Gong Lin II wrote this week.

National Weather Service officials report increased chances that red flag warnings will be issued in L.A. and Ventura counties next Monday and Tuesday (60% and 70%, respectively). The potential for Santa Ana winds falls sharply later in the week.

Beachfront homes are devastated by the Palisades fire on Pacific Coast Highway in Malibu on Jan. 8.

(Brian van der Brug/Los Angeles Times)

“While confident that we will NOT see a repeat of last week, dangerous fire weather conditions are expected,” forecasters posted on X (Twitter).

Here’s what else to know about the weather outlook as the deadly Palisades and Eaton fires continue to burn.

Drought-plagued SoCal is projected to get even drier this month

Most of Los Angeles County and the rest of Southern California is currently in severe drought conditions, according to projections released Thursday by the U.S. Drought Monitor.

California’s drought map as of Jan. 16. On the map, yellow represents abnormally dry, tan, orange and red represent moderate, severe and extreme drought, respectively.

(U.S. Drought Monitor)

That puts us in one of the driest starts to winter on record, Ron noted.

“Downtown L.A. has received just 0.16 of an inch of rain since Oct. 1 — 3% of the average at this point in the season, which is 5.56 inches,” he wrote. “In San Diego, just 0.14 of an inch of rain has fallen between Oct. 1 and Jan. 14. That’s the driest start to the water year in 174 years of record keeping.”

While Angelenos are familiar with our trademark winter wind events, the lack of rain is most concerning to forecasters. And there’s no significant chance it will come in the near future — at least through Jan. 25.

“Even though Santa Ana winds are common and normal this time of year, it’s not normal to be this dry,” NWS meteorologist Alex Tardy told Ron. “Normally, in between Santa Anas you’ll at least get a rain and a Pacific storm in an average year, and we’re not even seeing that.”

Fires prime hills for mudslides, debris flow

Stormclouds would be a welcome sight for many Angenelos after months without them. But while rainfall would alleviate bone-dry conditions and aid the county’s firefights, it would bring a new hazard.

The thousands of hillside acres scorched by the fires are now primed for mudslides and debris flows when (or if) rain does arrive.

“Post-fire debris flows are particularly hazardous because they can occur with little warning, can exert great impulsive loads on objects in their paths, can strip vegetation, block drainage ways, damage structures, and endanger human life,” U.S. Geological Survey officials explained. “Wildfires could potentially result in the destabilization of pre-existing, deep-seated landslides over long time periods.”

That soil movement doesn’t need to wait for rain, though. Landslides are already happening in some areas of the Palisades fire burn scar, my colleague Grace Toohey reported this week, a result of “dry ravel” erosion that happens when vegetation that had helped hold dry soils and debris is destroyed.

We can blame La Niña (and climate change)

Last winter’s powerful El Niño pattern brought wet weather and deadly storms to the Golden State. NWS forecasters predicted increasing odds that a La Niña event would follow.

The Pacific weather pattern is associated with cooler, drier conditions, as winds push hot water toward Asia, causing the jet stream over North America to shift north. That means less moisture, and the moisture that does arrive hits the Pacific Northwest more than California.

Electrical towers in the aftermath of the Eaton fire in Altadena.

(Jason Armond / Los Angeles Times)

NWS scientists announced last week that La Niña conditions had officially arrived at the tail end of 2024 “and are expected to persist through February-April 2025.”

The occasional Pacific conditions, considerable dry spell and typical winter wind events are happening as human-caused climate change makes our swings between wet and dry even more volatile, according to researchers.

A recent study led by UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain found that our collective burning of fossil fuels and other planet-warming activity is contributing to “climate whiplash” that will only make wildfires, flooding, landslides and other disasters more destructive.

“California naturally experiences some of the world’s most dramatic shifts between very wet weather and dry spells,” Times reporter Ian James explained in his recent coverage. “And with more warming… scientists project the state to see these swings become even more extreme.”

Today’s top stories

An L.A. County firefighter works to douse flames at an Altadena home.

(Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles Times)

Fire victims sue Southern California Edison

• The family of an Eaton fire victim is suing the utility company on claims of wrongful death, alleging that SCE’s negligence is to blame for the blaze that killed 59-year-old Evelyn McClendon.
• Four more lawsuits were filed Monday accusing SCE of sparking the Eaton fire.
• The utility company’s CEO says Altadena winds were not strong enough to merit de-energizing a powerful electrical transmission line that is now being investigated as a possible ignition point for a fire that devastated a large swath of Altadena.
• Edison stock turns volatile as growing blame for wildfires lands on the power company.

Can fire-torn L.A. handle the World Cup, Super Bowl and Summer Olympics?

• Supporters say the World Cup, Super Bowl and Olympics will boost morale and the economy.
• Critics worry that time and resources spent on sports over next three years will detract from rebuilding.
• The lead organizer for the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics met with President-elect Donald Trump to discuss the Olympics and received what he called an “unwavering commitment” to continuing with plans for the Games.

Cedars-Sinai reaches an agreement with the government on maternal care for patients of color

• The agreement includes steps such as putting warning systems in place to ensure timely treatment of critical illness in pregnant patients.
• The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Office for Civil Rights opened an investigation in July 2023 after allegations of racism and discrimination emerged in the years after the death of Kira Dixon Johnson.

The L.A. Times is starting a climate change podcast

• Award-winning Times climate columnist Sammy Roth will dive deep with scientists, energy leaders, legislators, activists and journalists who are experts on today’s climate challenges and solutions.
• In the first edition of Boiling Point, Kelly Sanders, an engineering professor at USC and Sammy spoke about what the fires mean for the future of L.A. and how the city might adapt to a warming world.
• You can also get Sammy’s newsletter here.

What else is going on

• Does your home reek of wildfire smoke? Here’s how to get rid of it — safely.
• L.A. County courts tried to maintain business as usual during firestorm. It was anything but.
• Craft supplies retailer Joann declares bankruptcy for the second time in a year.
• Los Angeles Department of Water and Power says workers have been threatened with bodily harm and, possibly, a rifle.
• Gov. Newsom extends rental price gouging protections until early March.
• In the wake of L.A.-area fires, Congress will consider new measures. Here are some of them.
• State Farm will offer renewals to policyholders affected by L.A. County fires that it had previously planned to drop.
• Netanyahu says a ‘last-minute crisis’ with Hamas is holding up approval of Gaza truce and hostage deal.

Get unlimited access to the Los Angeles Times. Subscribe here.

Commentary and opinions

• The Oscars ‘must go forward’ — and will, says film academy CEO. Columnist Mary McNamara says he’s right.
• Trump’s unfit nominee for Defense secretary gets the benefit of an incomplete, half-baked and secret FBI report, writes columnist Jackie Calmes.
• The flames erased lives, homes and the still to be told stories of Los Angeles, guest columnist Rubén Martínez writes.

This morning’s must reads

(Jim Cooke / Los Angeles Times; Photo via Getty Images)

Even before the L.A. fires, Hollywood jobs were hard to find. Will the work ever come back? As Hollywood goes through vast technological, financial and global change, the state’s cornerstone entertainment industry and its workers face a hard reality: Lost jobs may never come back.

Other must reads

• Two giant films poke at our current society. Is it on purpose?
• Ashes to ashes: What L.A. can learn from San Francisco’s 1906 disaster.
• Zorthian Ranch, ‘a magical, deep labyrinth’ of art, suffers major damage in Eaton fire.
• The long-term health effects of L.A. County wildfire smoke.

How can we make this newsletter more useful? Send comments to [email protected].

For your downtime

Altadena Girls launched a free store in a Boyle Heights warehouse this week. While the location has closed, they will be welcoming teens and students affected by the fires to shop at their new location in Pasadena.

(Allen J. Schaben/Los Angeles Times)

Going out

• 🛍️ At these free shops in L.A., fire victims can pick up new clothes and ‘a bit of happiness.’
• 🚆Amtrak’s Pacific Surfliner offers $10 train fares to aid fire relief.

Staying in

• 📺‘Sesame Street’ returns for a new season with a focus on emotional well-being.
• 🍜 Here’s a recipe for French Onion ramen.
• ✏️ Get our free daily crossword puzzle, sudoku, word search and arcade games.

A question for you: How do you show up for your community during a time of tragedy?

Rhonda Green writes: “I went to a couple of the fire houses and they are full to the gills. I checked in with a couple of charities and drop off sites and they’ve all been getting lots of water and other donations.

What I heard today was all of these children that were evacuated, need backpacks and school supplies to go back to class. So I’ve set up a gift registry for all our neighborhood and our Park friends to participate in. I’ve purchased all the backpacks that I can find locally and most of them were for boys, so on the list you’ll see that I only show girls backpacks and that’s what’s needed.”

Email us at [email protected], and your response might appear in the newsletter this week.

And finally ... your photo of the day

Pizza of Venice owner Sean St. John stands in front of his restaurant that was burned down by the Eaton fire on Jan. 11 in Altadena.

(Jason Armond/Los Angeles Times)

Today’s great photo is from Times photographer Jason Armond. Pictured is Pizza of Venice co-owner Sean St. John who is standing in front of the remains of his Altadena restaurant that burned in the Eaton fire.

Have a great day, from the Essential California team

Ryan Fonseca, reporter
Defne Karabatur, fellow
Andrew Campa, Sunday reporter
Kevinisha Walker, multiplatform editor
Hunter Clauss, multiplatform editor
Christian Orozco, assistant editor
Stephanie Chavez, deputy metro editor
Karim Doumar, head of newsletters

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