Don’t count on change

S.J. CAHN

The election numbers are still coming in, thanks to all those people

-- including me -- who voted via absentee ballot.

But for all the artificial excitement of changing results, folks

I’ve talked to doubt there will be any last-minute surprises in Costa

Mesa, the only vote that has even an off-chance of changing.

Yes, there are some 100,000 ballots in Orange County left to be

counted. Yes, there have been shifts in the results for the Costa

Mesa City Council. But, no, don’t start betting against Planning

Commissioner Eric Bever yet.

The best reason to project that is, typically, there aren’t such

changes. The grand rigmarole surrounding Florida in 2000 was unusual.

Final votes tend to mirror the rest, with no huge swing one way or

another.

That said, the shifts have altered the landscape a bit. The

morning after the election, Bever was in front of incumbent Mike

Scheafer by 269 votes. As of the end of counting Wednesday, Bever was

still in front by 88 votes.

Of course, the man he’s in front of is now fellow Planning

Commissioner Bruce Garlich. Scheafer is now another 415 votes behind

Garlich.

Garlich, it would appear, is coming on strong. But between Tuesday

and Wednesday he gained just four votes on Bever.

There’s no telling how many of those 100,000 ballots are from

Costa Mesa. But given that there are about 1.5 million registered

voters throughout the county and 35,500 in Costa Mesa,

straightforward math suggests that there are perhaps 2,360 Costa Mesa

ballots to count.

Yes, it’s enough to turn the tide. But don’t count on it.

Also of note, the front runner -- Planning Commissioner Katrina

Foley -- is ahead of the fourth-place Garlich by 2,924. Second-place

Linda Dixon, a former mayor, is ahead of Garlich by 2,224. They

almost certainly can rest comfortably.

In Newport Beach, the additional ballots have pushed Measure L

over a milestone. With 26,902 “no” votes to 13,303, the anti-Measure

L faction now has more than doubled the pro-vote. That might be worth

a slogan, but it’s a fairly small shift.

The council races have changed to no meaningful extent either.

Councilman Steve Bromberg still has 100%, for example.

* S.J. CAHN is the managing editor. He may be reached at (714)

966-4607 or by e-mail at [email protected].