And the election numbers are in ...

S.J. CAHN

The final results in our local elections tell us who -- and what --

won and lost, but there’s not much in the numbers yet to decipher why

or how.

First, a recap of what we know:

* In Costa Mesa, Planning Commissioners Katrina Foley and Eric

Bever and former Mayor Linda Dixon got elected, knocking off two

incumbents, Chris Steel and Mike Scheafer. People I’ve talked to

can’t remember when two incumbents lost.

* In Newport Beach, all three incumbents -- Steve Bromberg, John

Heffernan and Steve Rosansky -- were reelected. The closest race was

Heffernan’s, where he beat his challenger, Dolores Otting, 54% to

46%.

* Measure L, which would have rezoned a waterfront Balboa

Peninsula property so a hotel could be built there, was soundly

defeated, 66% to 34%.

* Newport-Mesa Unified School District incumbents all are still on

the board, as Dave Brooks, Martha Fluor and Dana Black faced no

challenge.

Angles to be looking for when the breakdown of precinct votes

appear:

* Where did Measure L do, well, the least poorly? I had expected a

stronger showing on the “yes” side because the measure was being

decided during a general election. People without strong feelings

about the change in zoning on the peninsular parts of Corona del Mar

and areas along MacArthur Boulevard (perhaps those living in Newport

Coast, which has been the least Greenlight-friendly part of town)

potentially could have swung the “yes” vote above 40%. They didn’t,

though. But still it will be interesting to know where the

controlled-growth sentiment is strongest.

* Was Bever’s support strong on the Westside? My understanding is

that precincts in that part of town were the last to come in, which

is why early showings had Bever out of the running. Also, is there

any sign of “bullet voting” -- where voters pick fewer than their

allowed number of candidates in a race -- which Costa Mesa politicos

have long speculated helped Steel win four years ago? I think that’s

a question less to do with Bever’s mandate from voters as it has to

do with judging how organized the Westside activists are these days.

* For all the winners, where was their strongest support? Did

Rosansky challenger John Buttolph, who was a vocal opponent of

Measure L, do best on the peninsula and Lido Isle? Was his support

strongest where Measure L opposition was toughest? What kind of

widespread support did Foley and Dixon get?

Answers to those questions will have to wait. Simply looking at

the results, one would have to conclude that in Costa Mesa experience

in campaigning played a big role. Foley, by all accounts I’ve heard,

ran an expert campaign in her second attempt. Dixon is a veteran of

previous campaigns and clearly learned from her defeat two years ago.

And Bever has been active in Westside campaigns at least for four

years.

That leaves Scheafer and Planning Commissioner Bruce Garlich, who

didn’t have the same recent campaigning experience.

In Newport, a late burst of activity from Heffernan -- including

touting the Pilot’s endorsement in his signs -- seems to have made

the difference. And I think Rosansky -- an appointed councilman, like

Scheafer -- benefited from Bromberg’s lack of an opponent and

resulting ability to include Rosansky in his campaigning. Rosansky

also had experience from a losing 2000 campaign to build on this

year.

The Measure L campaign came down to a combination of two factors,

I think. The No on L message about the vote being about a “giving

away of public land” was a tough one to overcome. There’s no good,

simple way to counter than simple, emotional statement. And the fact

that the man trying to sway voters’ opinions, Stephen Sutherland, had

been vilified by the time he really got campaigning made the job

nearly impossible.

It would have taken someone with the popular support of a Gov.

Arnold Schwarzenegger, in other words, to convince voters to back

Measure L.

There is one curious Measure L-related number in the results: a

major discrepancy in votes. The total votes, yes and no, on Measure L

equal 31,517. In District 2, won by Rosansky, the total votes cast

add up to 27,435. In District 5, Bromberg received 23,524. And in

District 7, the Heffernan-Otting race totaled 26,627.

That may illustrate a few thousand hard-core anti-Marinapark

voters, which would be a good sign for the Greenlight

controlled-growth group and other anti-development forces.

Still, the next great battle in Newport politics will be over how

dedicated residents are to those groups’ causes and beliefs.

The results also create the following repercussions in Costa Mesa,

where the Planning Commission is set to be overhauled with two

members moving onto the council and, possibly, one or more being

replaced as the new council settles in. It’s even possible Bill

Perkins could be the lone holdover, although I wouldn’t be at all

surprised to see Garlich appointed again.

Those changes could trickle down through other city commissions,

as well. They are ones to watch.

Finally, the dynamic of the Costa Mesa City Council will be

interesting. Leaping to conclusions, and probably too narrowly

defining blocs, Councilman Allan Mansoor and Bever likely will agree

on a number of items. Foley and Dixon, if they can put the

campaigning behind them, might be a second bloc. That leaves Mayor

Gary Monahan as a swing voter and a man who will know how to get

mileage out of that position.

* S.J. CAHN is the managing editor. He may be reached at (714)

966-4607 or by e-mail at [email protected].