Racers can expect quick conditions today

Ahoy.

The buzz around the yacht clubs is that a storm system is pushing

down from the north just in time for the sailing race today.

What race is that? you ask. The annual Tommy Bahama Newport to

Ensenada Yacht Race, which begins at noon today just outside Newport

Harbor’s entrance and finishes just outside the Port of Ensenada,

Mexico.

This race is deemed the largest international yacht race in the

world, but should I refrain from using that designation without proof

from every other race in the world, just like saying Newport Harbor

is the largest small craft harbor in the world? Who else has more

than 9,000 boats, anyway?

That is the topic of one of my future columns. Now back to the

race and the weather.

I think this race might challenge last year’s fast race, as wind

conditions are looking favorable. The winds for Friday afternoon are

predicted at 15 to 20 knots and will blow 10 to 15 knots that night.

Experienced boaters look north to the conditions at Point Conception

to determine what swell pattern is heading our way.

Point Conception is the where the coastline jogs easterly south of

Morro Bay and north of Santa Barbara. Newport is tucked easterly of

Point Conception, plus the Channel Islands help deflect the swell

pattern away from our coast. However, the swell pattern flowing south

will hit the coast just south of San Diego. Therefore, the swells can

be bigger basically from San Diego to Ensenada, except for a small

sheltered area behind the Coronado Islands.

The racers are charting their courses with the wind conditions in

mind, and thanks to the Internet, anyone can access the floating

weather buoys off the coast to read real-time data. The usual flow of

the coastal swells are from the west and northwest, which we call

“going downhill” when boating, as I have mentioned in many previous

columns.

Swells from the south are caused by storm systems and hurricanes

that would be bad for these racers, placing the seas on their nose

(nose is slang for bow of a boat). When you have the seas on your

nose, then you go slower because of more resistance and pounding

through the swells.

I mention seas from the south because there is a chance of a mixed

set on Friday with seas from the west and south. The confused seas

(confused is slang for mixed set) occur when strong swell pattern is

coming down from the north at Point Conception and a low pressure

system pushing seas up from the south.

Low pressure systems spin counterclockwise, with rising cooler air

that can cause geostrophic winds balanced by the Coriolis force and

the pressure gradient forces. Got it?

In other words, while watching the conditions to the north, the

sailors must also watch the location of the low pressure system, for

two reasons: First, you do not want to sail into the middle of the

system, as the winds will be light; and second, you want to watch the

resulting effects from the counterclockwise rotation.

This means that today, there is a chance the low pressure system

might generate 3-foot seas from the south in addition to the 3- to

6-foot seas coming from the west.

What I predict at start time is the winds will blow 5 to 10 knots

and growing that afternoon, with 3-foot seas off Newport both from

the west. As the boats get south of Dana Point and leave the

protection of Catalina Island, the seas will start increasing with

the largest seas south of the international border.

The experienced sailors will calculate whether to sail the Rhumb

line or sail out off the coast outside the Coronado Islands. I would

plan to sail one of these two courses once I could actually see the

conditions.

Remember, the smaller boats must keep safety in mind with respect

to the swells. Just because the big boys are heading out to sea does

not mean you can follow.

Have a safe and fun race. I will be skippering boats north of the

border this weekend, so I’m going to miss the party -- eh, I mean,

the awards ceremony.

Safe voyages.

* MIKE WHITEHEAD is the Daily Pilot’s boating and harbor

columnist. Send him your harbor and marine-related thoughts and story

suggestions by e-mail to [email protected] or visit

boathousetv.com.