California is a battleground state (if you know where to look)

Good morning. Here’s what you need to know to start your day.

• California could be key to control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
• As California farms use less Colorado River water, worry is growing over the shrinking Salton Sea.
• At the busy LAFD Station 11, there are far more overdose emergencies than structure fires.
• And here’s today’s e-newspaper.

California is a battleground state (if you know where to look)

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before from a fellow Californian:

It doesn’t really matter if I vote because the state is so deeply blue that my ballot won’t make a difference one way or the other.

I’d argue that every vote matters because it’s yours to cast — yet the sentiment is understandable given California’s overall Democrat-to-Republican registration ratio.

Yes, Vice President Kamala Harris has a strong lead over former President Trump in state polls and is almost certain to take California in the presidential race. But the Golden State is a key battleground that could decide control of the U.S. House of Representatives, which is why national party leaders have focused campaigning efforts here in recent days.

Times political reporter Laura J. Nelson broke down the numbers game fueling the campaigning surge:

“Democrats need to pick up four seats nationwide to regain control of the House next year. Republicans currently hold a razor-thin majority in the House and are defending 15 seats considered toss-ups. Five of those races are in California, where Republican House members are fighting costly and acrimonious reelection battles.”

Derek Tran, who is running against GOP Rep. Michelle Steel in the 45th Congressional District, with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries at an Anaheim campaign event Saturday.

(Michael Blackshire / Los Angeles Times)

Pairs of close races are happening in Orange County (the 45th and 47th districts) and the Central Valley (the 13th and 22nd districts), along with one in the Antelope Valley and another in Riverside County.

“California matters more than any other state in terms of determining who’s going to control the House next year,” Erin Covey, the House editor for Cook Political Report, told Laura. Covey added that Republicans performed better than expected in 2022, thanks in part to voters’ dissatisfaction with how the state’s Democratic leaders had handled crime.

Donald Trump played into that dissatisfaction at his Coachella Valley rally Saturday.

Speaking on a polo field just outside the city of Coachella, the former president “painted California as a lawless, dystopian state, and at times correctly touched on the economic struggles faced by many residents,” my colleagues Faith E. Pinho and Seema Mehta reported over the weekend. “But his comments also were peppered with distortions and falsehoods, including his claim that California has brownouts and blackouts ‘every day,’ presumably because of power shortages.”

A Trump supporter pops open an umbrella at a rally in Coachella on Saturday.

(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times)

The GOP nominee stuck to the familiar California bashing, including calling it a “sanctuary state” for immigrants and blaming Gov. Gavin Newsom and Harris for inflation, crime, homelessness and more.

Trump also threatened to withhold federal disaster aid to the state for future wildfire relief efforts if he wins in November — unless Newsom changes state water policy to allow more to flow to farmers and homeowners. California’s water supplies are projected to shrink by up to 23% within 20 years because of climate change.

“We’re going to take care of your water situation, force it down his throat, and we’ll say: Gavin, if you don’t do it, we’re not giving any of that fire money that we send you all the time for all the fire, forest fires that you have,” Trump told the crowd.

Republican Rep. Ken Calvert, who is running against Democrat Will Rollins in the contested 41st Congressional District, also spoke at the rally, where Trump endorsed his campaign. The district is in Riverside County, where Biden received more than 79,000 more votes than Trump did in 2020.

Seema and Faith note that Calvert voted against certifying the 2020 election results in Arizona and Pennsylvania. However, he has said he believes President Biden legitimately won that election — a bold stance to take in his party, since its figurehead continues to deny that fact.

Today’s top stories

An aerial view of the shrinking Salton Sea.

(Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)

Climate and environment

• As California farms use less Colorado River water, worry is growing over the shrinking Salton Sea.
• The Chumash Heritage National Marine Sanctuary is set to be designated today, marking the first California marine sanctuary managed by Indigenous peoples.
• After that early October heat wave, cooler weather is forecast for Southern California over the next few days.
• Nearly 10 years after an oil spill in Santa Barbara County, a plan to reactivate a pipeline has sparked anger.

Policing, crime and public safety

• A man arrested near Trump’s Coachella rally Saturday had a shotgun and handgun, authorities say.
• Former members of the L.A. County sheriff’s alleged “secret police” testify to oversight commission
• One man was killed and two women wounded in a shooting at a sports bar in El Monte early Saturday.
• A top detective alleges the LAPD is toxic toward women. Will her lawsuit bring change?

October baseball in L.A.

• Bus rides, watch parties and a new mindset: the edge fueling the Dodgers’ playoff run.
• Why the Dodgers will beat the Mets in the NLCS, according to The Times’ Houston Mitchell.
• Dodgers reliever Blake Treinen removes the stress from pressure-packed moments.

Get unlimited access to the Los Angeles Times. Subscribe here.

Commentary and opinions

• Jackie Calmes: The GOP assault on election integrity has already begun.
• George Skelton: The Newsom administration’s confounding actions on gas prices.
• Robin Abcarian: Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court confirmation looked bad at the time. It was even worse.
• Gustavo Arellano: Kevin de León takes a page from Trump’s playbook at Boyle Heights debate.
• LZ Granderson: Disasters like Helene and Milton test leaders. Trump fails every time.
• Guest opinion: Does California stand a chance of preserving our precious groundwater?

This morning’s must reads

(Genaro Molina / Los Angeles Times)

At LAFD Station 11, one of the busiest in the nation, there are far more overdose emergencies than structure fires. Times columnist Steve Lopez spent a day with station staff as they responded to overdoses in and around MacArthur Park. “When you first set eyes on the depths of social collapse and public distress, it’s shocking,” he writes. “But it’s all there again the next day, and the next, and although the shock endures, a bit of numbness takes hold, along with doubts that anyone in power is up to the task of restoring any semblance of order.”

How can we make this newsletter more useful? Send comments to [email protected].

For your downtime

Justin Levine looks through the stacks of records at the Licorice Pizza store in L.A. on Oct. 4.

(Carlin Stiehl / For The Times)

Going out

• 🎶 Grab a slice of vinyl nostalgia at L.A.’s revived Licorice Pizza record store.
• 🎸 The musical “American Idiot,” based on the Green Day album, has been extended at the Mark Taper Forum.
• 🌮 Since Dodger Stadium is still humming this month, here’s where to eat and drink nearby.
  

Staying in

• 🍲 Here’s a recipe for a beef bulgogi bowl with kimchi.
• 📖 Al Pacino’s memoir “Sonny Boy” goes all in with swagger, sorrow and why he skipped the ’73 Oscars.
• ✏️ Get our free daily crossword puzzle, sudoku, word search and arcade games.

And finally ... what’s your favorite restaurant in California?

Turkish eggs paired with a latte at Lokl Haus, one of The Times’ best places to eat and drink this month in Los Angeles.

(Christina House/Los Angeles Times)

What local restaurants do you hold dear, ones where you could be called a regular? Feel free to email us at [email protected], and your response might be included in the newsletter this week.

Have a great day, from the Essential California team

Ryan Fonseca, reporter
Amy Hubbard, deputy editor, Fast Break

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