Poll Analysis: New Hampshire, Where Underdogs Have a Chance

     If New Hampshire is famous for one thing, it is its primaries: A win in New Hampshire inevitably generates momentum for the ensuing primaries. This election season, however, New Hampshire voters are not sending a clear message on whom they foresee battling out the race for president. In fact, New Hampshire voters are voicing some mixed messages; while they predict a Bush win in November, they are polarized on their choice for their nominee in their Republican primary. They are also conflicted on which candidate in either party is best qualified to handle a variety of issues facing the country.

     Primary matchups
     According to the latest Los Angeles Times poll among voters likely to vote in the upcoming New Hampshire primaries on February 1st, Al Gore beats Bill Bradley in the Democratic primary with 50% of the vote to Bradley's 41%.
     With a wider selection of candidates to choose from, the Republicans are more divided in their vote, and give equal support to George W. Bush and John McCain, both of whom receive 36% of likely Republican voters. Steve Forbes comes in third, with 12%, Alan Keyes gets 7% of the vote, and Orrin Hatch gets 2% of the vote. Gary Bauer receives less than 1% of the Republican vote in New Hampshire.
     Seven percent of Republican and 8% of Democratic primary voters were undecided.

     The Republican primary
     Though they believe Bush will win in November, New Hampshire Republicans are torn between Bush and McCain in their upcoming primary. However, Bush's strong support is significantly higher than McCain's, with 45% of voters saying they strongly support Bush, and with 37% saying they strongly support McCain. Similarly, 66% of Bush voters say they are certain to vote for him on February 1st, while 62% of McCain voters are certain in their vote.
     There were no real demographic differences among each candidate's vote. Bush does slightly better with those who are less educated, and McCain fares slightly better among those with college degrees. Bush also does better with conservatives, who make up 65% of likely Republican voters, while McCain does better with liberal and moderate Republicans.
     More importantly, however, is that 26% of New Hampshire likely voters are currently undeclared and can therefore vote in either primary. This group leans heavily toward McCain (45% to Bush's 20%). Additionally, these undeclared voters are much less conservative than the Republican primary voters, with about a third falling into each ideological group, meaning that two thirds of these undeclared voters consist of the two ideological groups with whom McCain does best. Given that these voters currently make up about a quarter of the electorate, they have the capacity to swing the New Hampshire primary race to a McCain victory.
     Also in McCain's favor is that one of his principal platform issues--campaign finance reform--is resonating with New Hampshire primary voters. Nearly three quarters of Republican primary voters say that campaign finance reform is an important issue, and 42% would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports it (only 9% were less likely to vote for a candidate who supports campaign finance reform).

     The Democratic primary
     Gore does beat Bradley in New Hampshire, but with a bare majority of the vote. The quarter of voters who are presently undeclared voters are evenly divided between both candidates (46% for Bradley, 44% for Gore).
     However, Gore's vote is more solidly locked in than Bradley's:
     *42% of Gore voters are supporting him strongly (35% of Bradley's)
     *69% of Gore voters say they are absolutely certain that they will vote for him (62% of Bradley's)
     Additionally, Gore fares better among core Democratic groups such as women and those who are less well-off and less educated:
     *51% of likely Democratic primary voter women plan to vote for Gore (39% for Bradley)
     *59% of those with less than a college education plan to vote for Gore (31% for Bradley)
     *61% of those making less than $40,000 a year plan to vote for Gore (28% for Bradley)
     Bradley's core voters, on the other hand, are those with college degrees or more--53% of those with college degrees or more plan to vote for Bradley (38% for Gore)

     What New Hampshire voters want
     Both Democratic and Republican primary voters in New Hampshire value honesty and integrity in a candidate. Democrats who are likely to vote in the primary are choosing their candidate because of his honesty (27%) and his experience (26%), while Republicans overwhelmingly want a candidate who is honest (39%) and who displays leadership (23%).
     There are striking differences between the front-runners and the runners-up on the „honesty‰ perception, helping explain why the underdogs have a chance in this unpredictable state:
     *41% of Bradley voters say they are voting for him because of his honesty and integrity; just 14% of Gore voters support him for this reason
     *44% of McCain voters support him because of his honesty (37% of Bush voters)
     In stark contrast, 43% of Gore voters say they are voting for him because of his experience, while only 6% of Bradley voters are voting for him for this reason.
     McCain fares slightly better than Bush on leadership, with 27% of voters saying this is the reason they are voting for him compared to Bush's 23%.
     While Republicans and Democrats agree on the top four issues they would like to see discussed, the premium they give to each issue varies. Republicans who are likely to vote in the primary see the most important issues being taxes (33%), education (19%), Social Security (18%) and health care (14%). Democrats, on the other hand, say health care is what they would like to see addressed (34%) followed by education (24%), taxes (18%), and Social Security (17%).
     Not surprisingly, each party's candidates are addressing the issue its voters are most interested in, with Bush and McCain offering their own tax plans, and with Gore and Bradley dueling over their varying health care proposals.

     Candidate impressions andtheir handling of issues
     New Hampshire primary voters are generally satisfied with their selection of candidates in this election, with Republicans slightly more satisfied than Democrats:
     *78% of Republican primary voters are satisfied with the field of candidates
     *70% of Democratic primary voters are satisfied
     Despite satisfaction with their selection, the favorability ratings they give to the top candidates are much higher for the underdogs than for the mainstays of each party:
     *80% are favorable toward McCain
     *69% are favorable toward Bradley
     *52% toward Gore
     *50% toward Bush
     But what is more striking is that both McCain and Bradley do well even with the opposition party. Just over three-quarters of likely Democratic primary voters give McCain favorable ratings, and 57% of Republican primary voters give Bradley favorable ratings. In contrast:
     *25% of Republicans rate Gore favorably
     *22% of Democrats rate Bush favorably
     Continuing with the mixed messages New Hampshire primary voters are sending is their prediction as to who will win in November, which shows a far more sweeping margin than their intended primary vote. When asked to pick the candidate they believe will win in November, New Hampshire primary voters pick Bush by more than 2:1 over McCain (64% to 30%) and Gore by 18 points over Bradley (56% to 38%). And within each party, the differences are even wider. Likely Republican primary voters pick Bush 70% to McCain's 22%; likely Democratic primary voters choose Gore 70% to Bradley at 26%.
     Additionally, despite wavering on his favorability ratings, voters choose Gore as the candidate best suited to lead the country in the new millennium and as the candidate they think would do the best job handling education, health care and foreign affairs. Handling the budget surplus is the only issue where voters stray from Gore, with 22% saying McCain would do the best job in this area.

     Interest in the race
     More than nine out of ten voters say they are interested in following this year's presidential campaigns, with nearly half (47%) saying they are very interested. Republicans show more interest in the race than Democrats, exemplified by their following of the debates:
     *53% of likely Republican primary voters are very interested in following the campaign, and 74% have been watching the debates closely
     *42% of Democratic primary voters are very interested in following the presidential campaign, and 61% have been watching the debates closely
     At the same time, virtually no one in either party was persuaded enough by the debates to change their vote.

     Other issues
     Though gays in the military has been a hot-button issue during this race, voters are not particularly interested in the issue. Though few would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supported allowing gays to serve openly in the military, especially among Republicans and conservatives, most voters say a candidate's position on gays in the military would have no effect on their vote. While 40% of Republicans would in fact be less likely to vote for a candidate who supported allowing gays to serve openly in the military, a majority (50%) say that this position would have no effect on their vote. Additionally, three out of ten Democratic primary voters say that they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supported letting gays serve openly.
     New Hampshire primary voters are more opposed to requiring members of the Joint Chiefs of staff mirror a candidate's views than on the issue of allowing gays to serve openly, with a full third saying they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who supported this position. However, a majority of voters are not moved in their vote by this issue, and say that this stance would have no effect on their vote.Campaign finance reform is another much-discussed issue that is of interest and importance to voters, but it is certainly not deciding the race. While nearly eight out of ten likely primary voters see the issue as important, only 5% say it should be the most important issue of the race. Additionally, more than four out of ten voters say a candidate's position on campaign finance reform would have no effect on their vote, with Democrats more likely to be supportive of candidates who want to enact campaign finance reform than Republicans.
     In fact, gun control--and specifically handgun registration--was the only issue tested that generated a majority of voters saying they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supported that issue.

     How the Poll Was Conducted
     The Times Poll contacted 943 New Hampshire primary voters likely to vote in their primary on February 1st. Four hundred twenty-seven of these primary voters are likely to vote in the Democratic primary and 516 are likely to vote in the Republican primary. The poll was conducted by telephone January 16 through 20. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all possible exchanges. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and registration. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample of likely voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for likely Republican primary voters it is 4 points; for likely Democratic primary voters it is 5 points. For certain other subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.