Impeachment? Insurrection charges? A look at what’s next for South Korea’s president
SEOUL — The morning after South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol declared martial law — then stood down — his political future was swiftly unraveling.
Opposition lawmakers have filed insurrection charges against Yoon and are also moving to impeach him. Some in his own conservative People Power Party have called for his expulsion from the party.
The Korean Confederation of Trade Unions, a key force in the mass protests that ousted corrupt conservative President Park Geun-hye in 2017, has called on its 1.1 million members to strike until Yoon resigns.
“Considering what happened yesterday, I don’t think he’s going to voluntarily step down,” said Ha Sang-eung, a political scientist at Sogang University in Seoul. “But it’s also going to be very difficult for him to dig in his heels and wait it out.”
Here’s what may come next for the South Korean president.
Impeachment
On Wednesday afternoon — less than 17 hours after Yoon’s short-lived declaration of martial law — opposition lawmakers proposed a motion to impeach him.
They argued that his order violated the constitution, which says that the president can only declare martial law during wartime or a crisis of equivalent gravity. Yoon had tried to justify his decree with accusations that lawmakers were paralyzing his government, sympathizing with North Korea and refusing to pass his budget.
Impeachment requires the support of at least two-thirds of the 300-member National Assembly — or 200 votes. The opposition coalition holds 192.
It’s not out of the question that at least eight members of Yoon’s own party could turn against him to pass the impeachment motion.
The party officially declined to support the ousting attempt late Wednesday night. That may be because removing Yoon from office would effectively hand the presidency to liberal party leader Lee Jae-myung, whom conservatives have also accused of being corrupt.
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On the other hand, until the impeachment debacle, the party’s legislators had stood by Yoon amid intensifying calls by the opposition to oust him for a variety of scandals and corruption allegations that have dogged his presidency. But 18 of them joined the opposition to overturn his martial law decree, and several have since said his actions may warrant impeachment proceedings.
If the impeachment motion passes, Yoon’s presidential powers will be suspended while the constitutional court considers it — a process that can take up to 180 days and may be complicated by the fact that the nine-member court currently has three empty seats.
Ousting Yoon requires at least six votes, so unless the legislature quickly fills those seats, the decision would have to be unanimous.
If the court ultimately confirms the motion, the country will have 60 days to elect a new president.
Criminal insurrection charges
Three progressive parties that are part of the opposition coalition have filed a criminal complaint against Yoon alleging that his declaration of martial law was an act of insurrection.
Insurrection is one of the few crimes that is not covered by the president’s ex officio immunity. The punishment for insurrection includes the death penalty or life imprisonment.
If indicted, Yoon would be the first sitting South Korean president to be tried in criminal court while still in office.
Legal experts are split on whether Yoon’s actions meet the criteria for insurrection, which is defined as a deliberate attempt to subvert the country’s constitution.
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In a social media post on Wednesday, Han In-sup, a criminal law professor at Seoul National University, argued that trying to prevent legislators from entering the National Assembly was a clear instance of such intentional subversion.
“Anyone, police or military, who followed the president’s orders to incapacitate the function of the National Assembly can be considered an accomplice to insurrection,” he wrote.
On the other hand, Kim Sang-kyum, a law professor at Dongguk University in Seoul, said that argument is undermined by the fact that legislators ultimately managed to hold a vote to overrule Yoon.
It is unclear which law enforcement body will investigate the case. The Supreme Prosecutors’ Office has reportedly concluded that insurrection falls outside its jurisdiction, making it likely the police will take over.
An unlikely turn
Many ordinary South Koreans have been calling on Yoon to resign. But that appears unlikely — at least for now.
In a short address to announce the lifting of martial law, Yoon repeated his original charge against the legislature. He has issued no other public statements nor expressed any sign of regret.
Lee, the liberal party leader, has taken that lack of remorse as a sign that Yoon is gearing up for a second declaration of martial law.
“President Yoon seems to be in a state in which he is incapable of normal and rational judgment,” he said at a rally in front of the National Assembly building on Wednesday.
“I think they are going to improve on their shortcomings and try again.”
Lee’s claims can easily be read as bluster to drum up support for impeachment. But experts said that the possibility can’t be completely discounted.
“It is still a very remote possibility, yes, but after what happened last night, I am also wondering whether it’s as totally remote as we are tempted to think,” said Ha, the political scientist.
For a second attempt to work, Yoon would need much more cooperation from the military — and a more plausible pretext, such as conflict with North Korea.
“This would take us into the realm of novels,” Ha said. “But it’s worth mentioning because, again, yesterday’s incident was nothing less than a novel, too.”
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