Oregon and Washington join Big Ten, putting Pac-12 in peril

1

Turns out, USC and UCLA will have Pac-12 brethren joining them in the Big Ten after all.

Oregon and Washington announced Friday afternoon that they are also headed to the Big Ten, bringing the conference to 18 schools for the 2024-25 academic year.

Yahoo Sports reported Friday morning that Oregon and Washington officials told the Pac-12 of the impending move in a meeting, which was supposed to be commissioner George Kliavkoff‘s last chance to convince his members to stay together after the exits of USC and UCLA last summer and Colorado last week.

Kliavkoff reportedly presented his schools with the details of a potential media rights agreement with Apple on Tuesday. The deal would put the Pac-12 games mostly on streaming and offer minimal linear cable and broadcast options. For the Western schools that have already struggled with exposure over the last decade, that idea apparently did not sit well.

Oregon and Washington were followed out the door by Arizona, Arizona State and Utah, with the Big 12 announcing the new members Friday night.

It’s less clear what will happen to Stanford, California, Washington State and Oregon State. Even if the Pac-12 does stay alive, the 108-year-old league won’t feel like a power conference any longer.

After a wild week, there’s a lot to sort out. Here are five things to know about this latest wave of realignment:

2

What does this mean for USC and UCLA?

Pasadena, California November 19, 2022- USC running back Darwin Barlow breaks free.

The Trojans and Bruins may have been picked first — and they may have more money coming in from the Big Ten’s media rights distributions for the next six to seven years due to Washington and Oregon joining at a reduced share — but they are not special anymore.

USC and UCLA will no longer be able to tell Southern California recruits who are being pursued by the ever-persistent Ducks that going to Oregon means you won’t be playing in marquee games on Fox, NBC and CBS. From a competitive standpoint, the Ducks and Huskies are now on equal footing and can venture back into the Southland with a renewed swagger.

USC coach Lincoln Riley said his recruiting strategy won’t be impacted by Big Ten expansion.

“We came here to win national championships,” he said. “To win national championships, you’re competing against everybody. So in my mind, nothing has changed. It doesn’t matter what conference you’re in. most schools in the country are going to recruit in Southern California. There’s a lot of good players out here. Very confident in our brand. Very confident in our approach. Our goals are completely unaffected by anything today.”

While the Trojans and Bruins lost that potential recruiting advantage, they did gain some positives on a practical level. Being able to play conference games against two other West Coast rivals will help ease the travel burden.

Plus, while USC and UCLA preferred that Oregon in particular be left behind in the Pac-12, it’s always fun to see the Ducks and Huskies on the opposite sideline, and quick getaways to Eugene and Seattle can remain a staple of the fall for fans.

UCLA coach Chip Kelly and Riley praised their respective university leaders for getting the programs into the Big Ten last year, putting them in position to focus on preseason camp rather than the conference realignment saga that played out this week.

“My reaction today is I have no reaction,” Riley said when asked about Oregon and Washington joining the Big Ten. “We’re trying to win the Pac-12 and then we’ll deal with the Big Ten when that time comes.”

3

Why didn’t the Big Ten take Oregon and Washington originally? What changed?

Washington coach Kalen DeBoer, center, stands on the sideline.

In the year leading up to the Big Ten’s move to grab USC and UCLA, the conference was trying to answer the SEC’s move of adding Texas and Oklahoma — and strategically trying to make itself as attractive as possible to potential TV partners as its media rights negotiations approached.

Once the Big Ten had the L.A. schools in tow, the needle already pointed up for Fox — its primary partner — and, presumably, others.

Washington and Oregon certainly had their appeal as the lone Pac-12 brands to appear in the College Football Playoff semifinals. But they wouldn’t bring an obvious monetary jump to the rest of the league members like USC and UCLA did. Plus, there were the optics to consider. Some presidents and chancellors did not want it to appear like the Big Ten was actively trying to kill the Pac-12, its longtime ally in the Rose Bowl.

So the Big Ten tabled Oregon and Washington, knowing they would come at any point in the future if invited.

Here’s what changed: Thanks in part to the addition of USC and UCLA, the Big Ten struck a massive, historic TV deal worth $8 billion over seven years. As part of it, the league would have to present each of Fox, NBC and CBS with a desirable national game every week that is worthy of their investment.

Those who follow TV ratings point to 4 million in viewership as the magic number for the networks. Would the Big Ten, with 16 teams, be able to hit that number three times per Saturday, especially when factoring in bye weeks?

The Big Ten eventually would need to add teams again, whether it was from the West or from the ACC or both, to please the networks.

When the Pac-12’s media rights negotiations dragged on and on without a grant of rights being signed, and after Colorado bolted for the Big 12 last week, the Big Ten saw an opening to strike and did not hesitate.

4

What happens to Stanford, Cal, Oregon State and Washington State?

Stanford football coach David Shaw speaks at Pac-12 media day in July 2022.

As of Friday afternoon, Arizona, Arizona State and Utah had each reportedly applied for membership to the Big 12. The Irving, Texas-based league is expected to approve them and become the country’s third 16-team conference.

That leaves four still-proud institutions remaining in the once-proud Pac-12.

It’s crazy to think that Stanford — the most successful athletic department in the country when it comes to winning championships, having won 26 of the 29 Directors’ Cups honoring the most titles across all NCAA sanctioned sports — would not find a home in one of the four power conferences.

Maybe down the line the Big Ten won’t be able to resist adding the academic prestige of Stanford and Cal, along with the connection to the Bay Area, where tens of thousands of Big Ten alumni reside. But now, it appears, is not that moment.

Stanford’s football program lost its momentum in the last few years under David Shaw, and now it is rebuilding under new coach Troy Taylor. One can easily imagine a lot of quiet afternoons in Stanford Stadium coming up.

The Cardinal could decide to join Notre Dame as an independent, but Stanford doesn’t have the ability to fund athletics on its own like the Fighting Irish can thanks to its TV deal with NBC. And to be able to compete in all sports at the level it is accustomed, Stanford is going to need help from a conference distribution.

Cal is in much worse shape than Stanford, and it will need to lean on that historic relationship going forward to position itself for whatever is to come.

As for Oregon State and Washington State, it’s hard not to feel bad for these institutions and their fans. The Beavers and Cougars have lost their in-state big brothers to the Big Ten, and there is no clear path forward that will keep them in a power conference.

The totality of this day will be felt most in Corvallis and Pullman.

“We are disappointed with the recent decisions by some of our Pac-12 peers,” Washington State president Kirk Schulz and athletic director Pat Chun said in a statement. “While we had hoped that our membership would remain together, this outcome was always a possibility, and we have been working diligently to determine what is next for Washington State athletics.”

The Big 12 could have the option, once the dust settles from adding four Pac-12 schools, to go after any of the remaining four at reduced shares.

5

Is the Pac-12 actually dead?

Pac-12 Commissioner George Kliavkoff speaks during a news conference in 2021.

The West Coast’s premier conference can still exist, sure. It just won’t be powerful enough to have a seat at the table when the decisions that will shape the top of Division I are made.

Kliavkoff will undoubtedly be trying to protect the four remaining schools and deliver them to safety through either expanding with “Group of Five” schools or merging with a G5 league like the Mountain West.

If he can’t pull something like that off to preserve the conference’s actual purpose for existing — you know, combining a group of like minded schools to stage athletic competitions against one another — the league won’t survive past the 2023-24 academic year.

6

What about the fans?

Oregon State fans celebrate after a win over rival Oregon in November.

Think about Oregon State and Washington State fans today. You wake up excited that it’s only three weeks until college football season, only to remember that this is your team’s last year competing at the sport’s highest level, week in and week out, with the ability to win a Civil War or an Apple Cup and at least dream of a Rose Bowl berth.

Heck, the Beavers have beaten the Ducks in two of the last three Civil Wars. Jonathan Smith is building something legitimately respectable at Oregon State, his alma mater. Stories like that are what college sports used to be about.

In the Palouse, the remote region of Eastern Washington where Washington State resides, what makes Pullman any different than the nearby college town of Moscow, Idaho, if the Cougars aren’t playing sports on some of the nation’s biggest stages?

Many of us who love college football across the country didn’t ask for any of this. We love watching the Washington States and Indianas try to take down the USCs and Ohio States. Do we enjoy the Trojans playing the Buckeyes, too? Of course. But not at the cost of losing what’s special about our sport.

The more the top leagues consolidate top brands, the more this will feel like the NFL, with the Big Ten and SEC functioning like the NFC and AFC.

Who would have ever wanted Saturdays to be like Sundays?

Staff writer Ryan Kartje contributed to this report.