Top 2023 Super Bowl prop bets: Who will win MVP?

1

Some of the novelty has worn off Super Bowl props because they aren’t met with the same fanfare they used to be. The age of legal sports betting in the United States has created high demand, but sportsbooks also create high supply. Prop bets, the ability to parlay props and hundreds of betting options are available any given Sunday.

Bettors used to have to sit in smoky Las Vegas books waiting for the prop packets to be passed out and the lines to be posted on the board. Nowadays, prop betting is everywhere and more popular than betting the spread or total in some respects. However, this is the single biggest betting event of the year and there are a lot more props than what we typically see, so there still are plenty of reasons to get excited.

Let’s survey some of the most popular prop bets for Super Bowl LVII.

2

Popular Prop bets for Super Bowl

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts stretches during a team practice session on Wednesday.

Super Bowl MVP: History tells us this is a quarterback-driven award, though recent history tells us there has been more variety. Cooper Kupp’s Super Bowl LVI MVP was the second one in four years to go to a wide receiver and the fourth one in the last nine Super Bowls to go to someone other than a quarterback. Two defensive players — Von Miller and Malcolm Smith — also have been victorious.

The quarterbacks who won in the last nine years have been Tom Brady (three times), Patrick Mahomes and Nick Foles. Mahomes is vying for his second one and has moved into the favorite for the award at +120, even though his team is an underdog. Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is second at +125, while all of the other players are predominantly +1000 or higher.

If you like the Chiefs to win, there aren’t a lot of scenarios in which Mahomes isn’t the MVP, especially with some easy headlines to write about his achievement. He would be the first QB since 1999 (Kurt Warner) to win regular season and Super Bowl MVP. He’s also performing at a high level while injured. You can get Mahomes around +120 or +125 instead of taking the Chiefs at +105 for more profit potential, though there is a chance Kansas City wins and Mahomes is not MVP.

Many will look at Travis Kelce at anywhere from +1000 to +1200. A tight end never has won the award. Some may look at Miles Sanders at +2200 with the run-heavy Eagles, but a running back hasn’t won the award since Terrell Davis in Super Bowl XXXII way back in 1998.

With the exception of Miller in Super Bowl 50, most of the defensive players to win the award over the last 35 years have been guys with interceptions, so consider any long-shot defensive player like a C.J. Gardner-Johnson at +20000 or a L’Jarius Sneed at +15000.

Travis Kelce: The Eagles are going to spread the ball around, but the Chiefs may not have that luxury. Kelce is going to be the focal point of the Kansas City offense and he is the most popular player in terms of “Anytime TD” and “First TD” props. His receptions prop of 6.5 is two catches higher than any other player in the game and his receiving yards prop of 78.5 is also clearly the highest.

Kelce’s two previous Super Bowl appearances could not have been more different. He had six catches for 43 yards and a touchdown when the Chiefs beat the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV and 10 catches for 95 yards and a touchdown when the Chiefs lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl LVI.

Through two games this postseason, Kelce has 21 catches on 25 targets for 176 yards and three touchdowns. He’s caught 15 touchdowns in 17 playoff games for the Chiefs and has had a touchdown in eight of his last nine playoff games, so you can see why he’s popular.

3

Favorite Prop bets for Super Bowl

Kansas City Chiefs safety Justin Reid runs onto the field during player introductions.

Justin Reid over 5.5 tackles + assists: The Chiefs spent most of the season leading their games, so the safeties would sit back in some form of soft coverage to avoid getting burned by big plays. In this game, we should see a pretty close contest, but also one in which the opposition loves to run the football. Through 19 games this season, Reid has averaged slightly more than five tackles plus assists per game, so the books have propped this up a bit, but Philadelphia’s style of play should allow him to be more involved. He’ll have to help in run support and also help against Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert, which creates a lot of opportunities to be around the ball.

Jake Elliott under 7.5 kicking points: The Eagles were an efficient red-zone offense and the Chiefs were among the worst red-zone defenses. Elliott made only 20 field goals in the regular season, with five coming in Week 18 against the New York Giants when a clearly-injured Hurts toughed it out to lead the Eagles to the NFC East title and the No. 1 seed. Otherwise, Elliott had only four games with more than one field goal. With a Chiefs defense that ranked 31st in red zone TD% against, I don’t think the Eagles will be settling for field goals.

Miles Sanders over 13.5 rushing attempts: Sanders was the bell cow for the Eagles all season, averaging 15.2 rush attempts per game, and he had 205 more than any other running back. Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott have gotten a lot of attention lately, but this is the game in which you go with your best, and the Eagles’ best is Sanders.

Sanders had snap shares of 40% or lower in the final two regular-season games and both playoff games, but the Eagles had plenty of incentive to keep him fresh and won the playoff games in blowouts. For the regular season, he played at least 51% of the snaps in every other game except the last two and more than 60% of the snaps in six of them. I’d expect him to be the featured guy and to get touches when he’s on the field.

For more sports betting content, check out www.VSiN.com. Sign up to be a subscriber at VSiN.com/subscribe.