NFL Week 17 picks: Bengals take down Bills; Chargers beat Rams; 49ers win

The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = over/under). Last week’s record 11-5 (.688); season 148-90-2 (.622). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 7-9 (.438); season 113-121-6 (.483).

Times Pacific.

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott looks for a receiver against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the second half on Dec. 18 in Jacksonville, Fla.

(John Raoux / Associated Press)

Thursday, 5:15 p.m.

TV: Amazon Prime Video.

Line: Cowboys by 12 1/2. O/U: 39 1/2.

The Titans are reeling. Dallas is riding high after a big win over Philadelphia. Tennessee’s offense will have a tough time keeping pace, even though Dak Prescott is having issues with turnovers.

Prediction: Cowboys 28, Titans 17

New York Giants cornerback Jason Pinnock in action against the Minnesota Vikings during the first half Saturday in Minneapolis.

(Stacy Bengs / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 705.

Line: Giants by 5 1/2. O/U: 38 1/2.

The Giants have incentive to win and quarterback Daniel Jones is playing well. Despite spending all of that money on their offensive line, the Colts are having trouble moving the ball.

Prediction: Giants 21, Colts 10

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence runs with the ball against the New York Jets on Dec. 22 in East Rutherford, N.J.

(Adam Hunger / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Jaguars by 4 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

The Texans are scary. They beat the Titans last week and the two weeks before that played the Cowboys and the Chiefs close. Jacksonville should win, but this one figures to be tight.

Prediction: Jaguars 24, Texans 20

Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster celebrates against the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday in Kansas City, Mo.

(Ed Zurga / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 707.

Line: Chiefs by 12 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

Often, a team that just fired its coach has the edge. But in this case, the Chiefs have too much — and too much incentive to win, with the No. 1 seed still in play. Lots of Patrick Mahomes in this matchup.

Prediction: Chiefs 35, Broncos 17

Miami Dolphins fullback Alec Ingold runs a play against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday in Miami Gardens, Fla.

(Doug Murray / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Patriots by 3. O/U: 41 1/2.

Miami handled the Patriots pretty easily in the opener but a lot has changed since, including having lost four in a row, and it appears Teddy Bridgewater will be behind center. Yet, defense is the difference.

Prediction: Dolphins 21, Patriots 17

Chargers

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Dec. 28, 2022

Washington Commanders quarterback Taylor Heinicke gestures during the second half against the New York Giants on Dec. 18 in Landover, Md.

(Nick Wass / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 709.

Line: Commanders by 1 1/2. O/U: 40 1/2.

Washington still has a playoff pulse, and Chase Young is back for the defense. Cleveland has scored 10, 13 and 10 in its last three games with Deshaun Watson. Washington should win.

Prediction: Commanders 21, Browns 13

Atlanta Falcons cornerback Darren Hall in action during the first half against the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday in Baltimore.

(Nick Wass / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Falcons by 3. O/U: 42 1/2.

The Falcons should be able to run it a bit on Arizona if they stick with it. Atlanta will give up some yards passing, but not if it’s Trace McSorley at quarterback for the Cardinals. They need Colt McCoy.

Prediction: Falcons 24, Cardinals 20

Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff passes against the Carolina Panthers on Saturday in Charlotte, N.C.

(Jacob Kupferman / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 711.

Line: Lions by 5 1/2. O/U: 52 1/2.

The Lions are due for a bounce-back after an embarrassing performance at Carolina. The Bears have some reason for excitement with the way Justin Fields has played, but they’ve lost eight in a row.

Prediction: Lions 30, Bears 20

Philadelphia Eagles running back Miles Sanders runs the ball during the first half against the Dallas Cowboys on Saturday in Arlington, Texas.

(Brandon Wade / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Eagles by 6. O/U: 43 1/2.

Yes, they lost at Dallas, but the Eagles made it interesting with Gardner Minshew at QB. The Saints have topped 20 points in two of their last seven games. Philadelphia has too much offense.

Prediction: Eagles 28, Saints 20

Carolina Panthers quarterback Sam Darnold runs with the ball against the Detroit Lions on Saturday in Charlotte, N.C.

(Jacob Kupferman / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Buccanners by 3. O/U: 40 1/2.

Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay offense are stuck in the mud. The Buccaneers should be getting a couple of players back on defense. Still, Carolina has some confidence and can run the ball.

Prediction: Panthers 20, Buccaneers 17

New York Jets quarterback Chris Streveler runs with the ball against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Dec. 22 in East Rutherford, N.J.

(Adam Hunger / Associated Press)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Jets by 1 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

Mike White is back at quarterback for the Jets, and Seattle should have a difficult time generating a pass rush. Could be a big day for rookie receiver Garrett Wilson. Still not easy to win in Seattle.

Prediction: Jets 24, Seahawks 21

San Francisco 49ers linebacker Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles against the Washington Commanders during the first half Saturday in Santa Clara.

(Godofredo A. Vásquez / Associated Press)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 715.

Line: 49ers by 10. O/U: 41 1/2.

Brock Purdy is remarkably poised and keeps making the correct throws. George Kittle is particularly dangerous, and Christian McCaffrey is in line for a huge day against the Las Vegas defense.

Prediction: 49ers 31, Raiders 18

Chargers

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Dec. 27, 2022

Chargers’ Mike Williams (81) is tackled by Indianapolis Colts’ Stephon Gilmore during the second half Monday in Indianapolis.

(AJ Mast / Associated Press)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 716.

Line: Chargers by 6 1/2. O/U: 40 1/2.

The Chargers are getting healthy and hot at the right time. The Rams had an unexpectedly prolific performance against Denver, but it’s going to be hard to keep that up against a capable opponent.

Prediction: Chargers 28, Rams 20

Minnesota Vikings linebacker Za’Darius Smith in action against the New York Giants during the second half Saturday in Minneapolis.

(Stacy Bengs / Associated Press)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 717.

Line: Packers by 3. O/U: 48 1/2.

This is an NFC North matchup and figures to be close. The Vikings are 11-0 in one-score games. The Vikings are vulnerable on defense, but the banged-up Packers might not have enough to exploit that.

Prediction: Vikings 23, Packers 20

Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews looks on between plays during the second half against the Atlanta Falcons on Saturday in Baltimore.

(Terrance Williams / Associated Press)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

TV: Channel 4.

Line: Ravens by 2 1/2. O/U: 35 1/2.

The Steelers have won four of five, although they’ve done so despite generating little offense. They scored 13 points against Las Vegas, and they’ll be facing a Baltimore defense that’s better than that.

Prediction: Ravens 21, Steelers 17

Buffalo Bills running back James Cook (28) runs in for a touchdown during the second half against the Chicago Bears on Saturday in Chicago.

(Kamil Krzaczynski / Associated Press)

Monday, 5:30 p.m.

TV: ESPN.

Line: Bills by 1 1/2. O/U: 49 1/2.

There’s something to Joe Burrow in big games, and the Bengals have won seven in a row. Injuries along the defensive line hurt Cincinnati, but the home team might just hang on.

Prediction: Bengals 27, Bills 24