Horse racing newsletter: One week to the Kentucky Derby

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as Rob Henie is back with a handicapping lesson.

I know we are a week away from the Kentucky Derby, but before we get on to the rest of the newsletter, here’s a look at the likely starters for the race. This comes courtesy of Churchill Downs publicity.

Tiz the Law (jockey Manny Franco); Authentic (John Velazquez); Art Collector (Brian Hernandez Jr.); Honor A.P. (Mike Smith); Ny Traffic (Paco Lopez); King Guillermo (Samy Camacho); Thousand Words (Florent Geroux); Max Player (Ricardo Santana Jr.); Enforceable (Adam Beschizza); Major Fed (James Graham); Storm the Court (Julien Leparoux); Attachment Rate (Joe Talamo); Sole Volante (Luca Panici); Finnick the Fierce (Martin Garcia); Winning Impression (Joe Rocco Jr.); Necker Island (Miguel Mena); Shirl’s Speight (Corey Lanerie).

Possible starters: Dr Post (Tyler Gaffalione); Rushie (TBA); Money Moves (TBA);

The Flatter files

It’s time for our weekly contribution from Ron Flatter of the Vegas Stats and Information Network and Horse Racing Nation. He updates us on being able to bet (or not bet) the Kentucky Derby in a couple of states.

“Who knew that horseplayers here in Las Vegas would have something in common with horseplayers in Scarborough, Maine?

“The Silver State and the Pine Tree State. Strange bedfellows indeed when it comes to next week’s Kentucky Derby. Especially since right now bettors in both states are locked out of Churchill Downs betting pools.

“Of course, it comes back to money. Doesn’t everything? But the disputes have different characters in each state.

“The Nevada Pari-Mutuel Assn., which is the cartel of racebooks around the state, is just starting the 11th month of a stalemate with Churchill Downs Inc., the corporate monolith in Kentucky. They had been arguing over what percentage of the takeout each side should get from races at Churchill Downs, the old racetrack in Louisville that is owned by CDI. Actually, they have not been arguing lately. They stopped speaking to each other last spring.

“Got it so far?

“In Maine the fight is between CDI and the state’s Gambling Control Board (not to be confused with state Gaming Control Board in Nevada), which exclusively licensed Hollywood Races to provide advanced-deposit wagering. According to a story in the Press Herald in Portland, Maine (not to be confused with all the other Portlands), the state government did not license Twin Spires to be an ADW there. Twin Spires, a rival of Hollywood Races, is owned by CDI, which also owns a casino in Maine. In effect, Churchill said if it cannot play ball with its ADW in its own casino in Maine, then Maine cannot play with Churchill’s big horse race.

“Still following all this?

“Back here in Nevada, the state’s racebooks went to a Plan B that apparently is not available in Maine. They are preparing to book the Derby and the Kentucky Oaks on their own next week without sharing a single dollar with Churchill Downs. That plan was approved Thursday by the state’s Gaming Control Board (not to be confused wi ... oh, never mind).

“That all sounds well and good, right? Work independently of Churchill, pocket all the takeout, and everyone is happy from Las Vegas to Lake Tahoe to Winnemucca.

“Not so fast. Because Nevada is obliged to honor the prices posted on the tote board in Kentucky, the racebooks absorb a risk that would not be there if they were part of the national pari-mutuel betting pools based at Churchill Downs. To avoid being cleaned out by the potential of a big score in horizontal or vertical wagers, Nevada casinos are not likely to book Pick 5s and superfectas. That is what bookmakers have told the Vegas Stats & Information Network.

“It does not end there. What happens if there is a repeat of a Giacomo or Mine That Bird or, hey, a Country House that comes in from out of the longshot clouds? Don’t expect to pocket all $65,000 on a $1,000 bet at 65-1. For one thing each book will impose strict betting limits that will vary from one house to the next. Hypothetically, William Hill with its many properties and app bettors might allow a $1,000 win bet where a stand-alone shop like the South Point might have a limit of, say, $100. There will even be limits on payouts.

“Even a deluge of bets on Tiz The Law, short a price as he may be, could create an underlay that could trigger a whole new set of limits that could change as Derby Saturday wears on, according to one racebook insider.

“In short, the Nevada betting menu for the Derby will be limited, and it might not even include every race. The Gaming Control Board told casinos that they may only book the ones that are shown on NBC, NBCSN, FS1 and FS2. If a Churchill Downs race is shown only online, it may not be booked.

“There is, however, a chance that there will be a late deal between the Las Vegas racebooks and CDI to restore whatever looks like normal in 2020. Horseplayers — make that beleaguered horseplayers — who have been in Nevada for very long have seen this happen before. The word loggerheads could have been used to describe various impasses over the years involving the NPMA cartel and racetrack conglomerates. They eventually get resolved after everyone makes noise about how the other one is victimizing innocent bettors.

“So don’t be surprised after all this that someone next week channels the late Gilda Radner and his or her inner Roseanne Roseannadanna and says ‘never mind.’

“As for Maine? That is a whole nuther kettle of lobster.”

Ron Flatter is a host and reporter who covers horse racing for the Vegas Stats & Information Network, which is available at SiriusXM 204 and to subscribers at VSiN.com. He is also the contributing editor at Horse Racing Nation and the host of the Ron Flatter Racing Pod. Leon Nichols and Calvin Davis of the Project to Preserve African-American Turf History tell stories of the amazing 19th-century Black jockeys and trainers who built the Derby. Trainer Juan Carlos Ávila talks about the four-month layoff that King Guillermo is getting before his run for the roses. Rampart Race and Sportsbook’s Duane Colucci handicaps weekend races. To listen, just click here.

Weekly handicapping lesson

It’s time for our weekly handicapping lesson from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). Today’s analysis comes from the third race at Del Mar and incorporates some handicapping angles into the mix. Rob, take it away.

“This is a starter allowance race at 1 1/16 miles on the turf. Top selection is GOODTINGSCOMEINPINK (#7). There’s a big difference between a mile and 1 1/16, huge in fact. Races at a mile are often quicker with horses scurrying into the first turn, and continuing with that momentum along the backside, often creating late rallies from horses who can settle early. That was the case with this filly last time out, but Saturday, a different story we believe, as she’s actually better when able to settle while closer up, and that’s where this methodical 1 1/16 can be so useful for her. We’ve actually been waiting for her to get this particular assignment, and today’s the day, with Abel Cedillo taking over, along with a useful short seven hole, allowing for quick pop from the gate and a close up trip throughout, likely taking over at the top of the lane, if not sooner. SINGLE.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: Cedillo has won 20 of his 23 races on the lead or within two lengths at the ½ mile pole…. Runners who started their last race at Golden Gate, are 1 for 47 when running at Del Mar in their next start.

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 7-1

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): 3

“Negative Notes:

“4 Soothing - Beat very little when breaking her maiden here a few weeks ago.

“6 Hello Bubble - Only 5-2 on the morning line, but our top pick is gonna get first run turning for home while this one tries running on from deep on the course.

“Morning Line Underlays / Overlays:

“6 Hello Bubble - Morning Line 5-2 / WCHR Line 5-1

“TOP PICK: GOODTINGSCOMEINPINK (#7 4-1 Cedillo)

“SECOND CHOICE: FREEDOM LASS (#1 3-1 Rispoli)”

Del Mar review

In the short history of the newsletter, I can’t ever recall a dead heat in a local stakes race, but that’s what happened Friday in the $75,000 Tranquility Lake Stakes. It was a great battle between jockeys Flavien Prat and Mike Smith. Message, with Prat aboard in the one-mile race for fillies and mares, went to the lead and stayed there through fast fractions and appeared to be beaten by Proud Emma, with Smith riding, in late stretch. But Message fought back leading to a head-bobbing finish, which ended in a dead heat.

Proud Emma, trained by Peter Miller, paid $3.20, $2.80 and $2.10. Message, trained by Bob Baffert, paid $3.60, $3.60, $2.40. The rest of the field, in order, were Hang a Star, Zusha and Smiling Shirlee.

Here’s what the jockeys had to say.

Flavien Prat (Message): “She put us in the race [Friday]. She was really digging in late. I couldn’t tell if I’d won or not. I thought maybe. First time I’ve ever been in a dead-heat in a stakes race.”

Mike Smith (Proud Emma): “I was concerned about the quick turnaround (she had raced 12 days ago). I thought I was going to have to go catch that other one, but we wound up hooking up early. I couldn’t hit my filly. She was getting in [just outside Message] and I couldn’t go left-handed, we were too close. And if I hit her right-handed, she might come over more. I knew I was in front right before the wire, but then he (Prat) got the bob. My filly’s head was coming back up and his was going down. It worked out OK.”

Del Mar preview

Saturday’s 11-race card has one nice stakes race, three allowance/optional claimers and three maiden specials. Five of the races are on the turf. I know, Del Mar has changed its post next weekend to 1 p.m., but on Saturday, the last race is scheduled for 7:06 p.m., with a sunset time of 7:17 p.m. Good thing the last race is only five furlongs.

OK, the big race is the Grade 2 Pat O’Brien Stakes for horses going seven furlongs. It’s Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” race for the Dirt Mile, which should just be the Mile and the current Mile should be the Turf Mile. Enough if that.

The favorite, at 5-2, is Flagstaff for trainer John Sadler and jockey Victor Espinoza. The 6-year-old gelding has won five-of-14 lifetime, with four seconds. He won the Grade 2 San Carlos at Santa Anita on March 7. Last out he was fourth to winner McKinzie in the Triple Bend.

The second favorite is Giant Expectations, at 7-2, for Peter Eurton and Umberto Rispoli. This is his first start this year, having run 10th in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. He was second in last year’s Pat O’Brien to Catalina Cruiser. The 7-year-old has won four of 23, with five seconds and four thirds. This will be Rispoli’s first race on the horse.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 6, 6, 7, 6, 10 (1 also eligible), 6, 8, 8, 11 (1 ae), 8, 10.

Bob Ike’s Dmr pick of the day

SEVENTH RACE: No. 8 Avenue de France (8-1)

Sophomore filly from the Leonard Powell barn was well bet in a short field when making her U.S. debut in June but fell apart and finished last after sitting second early. She ran like a bleeder and gets Lasix on Saturday, continues to work well enough and should get first run on the likely pacesetter. She offers value as Drayden Van Dyke rides back.

Friday’s result: He’s Like Violence (2-1) got clear on the lead while setting a comfortable pace, was challenged on the far turn, then got swallowed up late before finishing off the board.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here’s a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ciaran Thornton’s Dmr pick of the day

RACE NINE: No. 1 Gregorian Chant (8-1)

Gregorian Chant makes the second start off the layoff for trainer Phil D’Amato, who wins 21% on this move. Jockey Juan Hernandez wins 25% of his mounts for this trainer and we see some sharp works for Saturday’s race and are getting a nice 8-1 morning line price.

Friday’s results: Tromador broke great and tracked the leaders in fourth but for some reason was shuffled to last place into the turn. The horse then made a late move but finished off the board. Strange ride.

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Golden Gate Fields weekend preview

He’s back for yet another Golden Gate meeting. Yes, track race caller and all-around good guy Matt Dinerman returns as our host for previews and other musings from up north. So, take it away, Matt.

“There are nine races on both Saturday and Sunday, which will end the racing week. Saturday’s third race is the feature. Although all the horses are in for a tag, it looks more like an allowance race on paper. Honeymoonz Over has an affinity for the Tapeta and draws the inside post position with new jockey Bryan Pena aboard. The John Martin-trained pair of My Friend Tony and Sequentially have been running against sharp company as of late and look to be in a good spot. Sunset Dragunn has seen better days but takes a needed drop-in class, while the speedy Sunrise Journey figures to go set a good pace and could be tough to reel in if he were to get brave on the lead.

“The eighth is the feature on Sunday, a one-mile Tapeta allowance for 3-year-olds, and four of the eight runners were last seen in the Robert Dupret Derby on turf earlier in the month. The runner up in that race, Sacred Rider, the 7-2 morning line favorite, enters for trainer Steve Specht and figures to get plenty of support. That said, his better races have come on grass. From a class perspective, he fits. Returray ran third in the Robert Dupret at a big price (42-1) and tries routing for the second time in his career. Zimba Warrior makes his first start off the claim for trainer Craig Dollase after an easy win against high-level claimers at Del Mar. Northern California allowance winner Lookin for Revenge and double-digit length maiden winner Barbaroni also figure to get support.

“Also on Sunday, 36 horses are entered in the late Pick 4 (Races 6-9). The fifth race starts the late Pick 5 and features a number of horses with back class. In this turf route, Gabo’s Macondo makes his second start off the layoff for Jonathan Wong while Arch Prince, who won multiple second-level allowance races earlier this year, takes a slight drop in class. Passionate Reward is an interesting item for leading trainer Isidro Tamayo. The gelding won on turf for trainer Richard Mandella when down south last year and gets to routing after a number of competitive races against some of the better sprinters in the Bay Area.”

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

10:00 Woodbine (1): $112,500 allowance, 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles on turf. Favorite: Armistice Day (2-1)

10:32 Woodbine (2): $126,800 maiden special weight, 2-year-olds, 5 ½ furlongs. Favorite: Cash in a Flash (2-1)

11:04 Woodbine (3): $108,700 allowance optional claiming, 3 and up, 1 ¼ miles on turf. Favorite: Hayabusa One (5-2)

11:18 Saratoga (3): Grade 3 $100,000 Saranac Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Vanzzy (7-2)

11:29 Monmouth (5): Grade 3 $150,000 Eatontown Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Favorite: Nay Lady Nay (2-1)

1:14 Gulfstream (9): $200,000 FTBOA Florida Sire Stakes-Susan’s Girl Division, Fla-bred fillies 2-years-old, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Go Jo Jo Go (8-5)

1:17 Woodbine (7): Grade 3 $125,000 Ontario Colleen Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Walk in Marrakesh (6-5)

1:32 Saratoga (7): Grade 2 $150,000 Amsterdam Stakes, 3-year-olds, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Yaupon (8-5)

1:49 Woodbine (8): $123,200 maiden special weight, fillies and mares 3 and up, 5 ½ furlongs. Favorite: Fabiolla (2-1)

2:07 Saratoga (8): Grade 1 $300,000 Forego Stakes, 4 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Whitmore (7-2)

2:21 Gulfstream (11): $200,000 FTBOA Florida Sire Stakes-Affirmed Division, Fla-breds 2-years-old, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Gatsby (3-1)

2:43 Saratoga (9): Grade 1 $500,000 Sword Dancer Stakes, 4 and up, 1 ½ miles on turf. Favorite: Sadler’s Joy (5-2)

6:38 Del Mar (10): Grade 2 $150,000 Pat O’Brien Stakes, 3 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Flagstaff (5-2)

Chris Wade’s LA pick of the day

RACE TWO: No. 6 Gov From Above (4-1)

He has improved steadily on my comparison speed charts with the 3-year-old posting a way-better-than-looked effort when fourth in a needed return outing on Aug. 14 after being off for nearly four months. In that outing, Gov From Above broke slow and was behind by multiple lengths with little racing momentum. After the tough getaway, the gelding went climbing while running wide down the backstretch and through the turn before finishing well on his own down the lane to light the board. With a step forward expected in his second start off the layoff, this entrant should be a contender for the top spots at a medium mutual.

Now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.