Horse racing newsletter: Wells Bayou wins in Louisiana, then racing canceled

Hello, my name is John Cherwa, and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we have a handicapping lesson from Rob Henie.

Wells Bayou wired the field in the Grade 2 $1 million Louisiana Derby to put himself square in the Kentucky Derby picture that has a road that is a big unknown. Under a brilliant ride from Florent Geroux the 3-year-old had plenty left when he hit the stretch to win by 1 ½ lengths. It gave the colt 100 Kentucky Derby qualifying points, which in a normal year makes him a lock-solid cinch to make the Derby. And, it’s most likely the same will hold true today. The trick is to keep your horse in top form all the way to Sept. 5.

After the race at the Fair Grounds, the track announced it was canceling the rest of the season, which was supposed to go until March 29. Yet another astounding development in year like no other most of us have ever experienced.

Jockey changes

Remember when we said that Rafael Bejarano was heading to Kentucky after the Santa Anita Derby? Well, with Keeneland canceling its spring meeting, he’s going to be staying in Southern California. “With Keeneland canceling, it kind of left Raffy without a place to ride,” Tora Yamaguchi, Bejarano’s agent, told Ed Golden of Santa Anita. “We really had little choice but to conduct business here for the time being. In the overall picture, racing is secondary right now but we’re all trying to make the best of things and do what we can.”

And, in what was about 1-9 odds as happening, Umberto Rispoli is going to be represented by agent Scotty McClellan. Rispoli was represented by Ron Anderson, but he had to drop Rispoli as Anderson picked up John Velazquez as a client. Because Anderson also represents Joel Rosario, he had to drop Rispoli as you can only represent two jockeys. McClellan represented Joe Talamo, until he moved his business to the Midwest.

Weekly handicapping lesson

It’s time for our weekly handicapping lesson from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). Today’s analysis comes from the third race at Santa Anita and incorporates some handicapping angles into the mix. Rob, take it away.

“This is a maiden special weight at seven furlongs. The WCHR is known for our debut winners we provide for our members (for example, we’ve had 15 of the 20 debut winners at the meet so far, including top pick winners of $71, $21, $21, $20, $11, $10). Debut winners are usually created as the result of the perfect scenario. A horse’s work pattern is indicative of a well-meant firster, coinciding with poor efforts from those who’ve already run, or even better, seemingly good efforts from those who’ve run. In reality, these come against bad horses, resulting in undervalued runners on the board based simply on in-the-money efforts which were not as good as they appear on paper. The majority of runners in this field Sunday (five of six) have already run, including a handful making their second start. So much can be deciphered from the placement in the second effort. For example, Top choice MR. CLUTCH (#5). He ran so-so in his debut, so are there variables in place to improve upon that first effort? The answer here is ‘yes.’ First, he’s back in three weeks, right on schedule. Trainer Jorge Gutierrez now moves him to the main track, moves out to ⅞ and adds blinkers, with Flavien Prat stringing along, and that recent :48 drill is much quicker than we usually see from Jorge. This is interesting because 15 years ago he worked his runners in a much quicker manner, but likely many trainers, his methods changed over the years. Expecting a nice second try with the new variables in place. Now, take a look at Doug O’Neill’s runner in HAMMERING LEMON (#6), almost identical. They exit different races, but also back in three weeks, a longer sprint, now on the main track, also adding blinkers, with Mario Gutierrez stringing along for Doug. Both runners are ready to move forward.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 5-6-3

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): none

“Positive Notes:

“4 El Diablo Rojo - Velez for Lewis has been a really good combination the past few weeks.

“First Timers:

“3 Golden Sparkle - Pretty interesting set of drills for Cassidy, much quicker in recent weeks, which as a general rule with this trainer, is a good thing, usually placing more emphasis on finishing down the lane rather than quickness.

“TOP PICK: MR. CLUTCH (#5 7-2 Prat)

“SECOND CHOICE: HAMMERING LEMON (#6 7-2 Gutierrez)”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at http://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Santa Anita review

There were two stakes races on Saturday. Let’s take a look at them.

Grade 3 $100,000 San Simeon Stakes. This was a 5 ½ furlong turf race that lived up to its billing as a battle between the two favorites, Cistron and Bound for Nowhere. It appeared as if the strong favorite, Bound for Nowhere, was going to win but a late rally by Cistron resulted in a win by a head.

Cistron paid $10.80, $3.40 and $2.80. Bound for Nowhere, who shipped in from Kentucky, was second and Murad Khan finished third.

Here’s what the winning connections had to say.

Juan Leyva (assistant to winning trainer John Sadler): “He’s been away since last summer and we needed a spot to run him in. He’s run well on the grass before and with this race being 5 ½ [furlongs] instead of five, we thought it would be Ok. It’s great to have him back and get him going again.”

Victor Espinoza (winning jockey): “It’s all about timing and confidence. I know this is a good horse and he broke sharp, but when that mare outside of me went so fast, I thought I didn’t want to empty the tank too early. I gambled a little bit and it worked out great.”

Grade 3 $100,000 San Luis Rey Stakes: This is one of the few races that starts on the since-abandoned downhill turf course. It’s 1 ½ miles and starts about halfway up the course. The bosses at Santa Anita believe that in a race this long the horses are not going that fast when they hit the dirt crossover, so there should be a strong sense of safety.

Ward ’n Jerry took the lead from Ashleyluvssugar at the top of the stretch and then cruised to a 1 ¼ length win. Ward ‘n Jerry paid $5.60, $3.20 and $2.60. Camino Del Paraiso was second and Oscar Dominguez, the favorite, finished third.

Here’s what the winning connections had to say.

Mike Puype (winning trainer): “If you look at his form, you can see that he’s done his best at long distances. He had won at a mile and a quarter and a mile and three eighths, and he ran a really good third going a mile and a half last December (beaten a neck in the Hollywood Turf Cup at Del Mar). They came home pretty fast [Saturday], they put a couple of 24 second quarters together there, so this was a big effort.”

Flavien Prat (winning jockey): “I hadn’t been on him in a long time and Mike told me that he’s best at these long distances. He was little keen early, but he settled down fine and as you saw, he had a good turn of foot through the stretch.”

Santa Anita preview

Sunday’s nine-race card, not open to the public, has some decent sized fields with a first post of 12:30 p.m. Four of the races are on the turf and four are restricted to Cal-breds. There is also one stakes and three allowance races. The stakes is the Sensational Star Stakes for older Cal-bred horses going 5 ½ furlongs on the turf.

Lieutenant Dan is the 7-2 favorite for trainer Steve Miyadi and jockey Drayden Van Dyke. He has won four-of-11 lifetime and is coming off a second in the Cal Cup Sprint. What’s interesting is he’s moving from the dirt to the turf. This will be only his second turf race.

The second favorite is Just Grazed Me, at 4-1, for Phil D’Amato and Giovanni Franco. She (cq) is six-for-11 lifetime and has won three of her last four. Last out, she was second in the Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf Sprint. This is her first race against the boys.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 10 (1 also eligible), 6, 6, 10, 6, 11 (1 ae), 7, 10 (1 ae), 9.

Ciaran Thornton’s SA pick of the day

RACE FOUR: No.10 Bedrock (10-1)

Bedrock makes the first start since September for trainer Jeff Bonde, who is off to a great start at the meet winning 28% going 7-6-2 from his 25 races. Edwin Maldonado rides Sunday so we know what the tactic will be, especially from this outside post: gate-to-wire. Bonde drops the horse into a claimer and he is winning 24% on this move. The horse cost $60k so it is not like they are giving the horse away. For small stables when they take chances like this and risk for the claim it usually tells me they mean business. Claim away and pay our bills and line the pockets with the win money. 10-1 is a great value price for us. This is the “other” Bonde horse in the race. Flavien Prat rides his other horse as the 7-2 off a one-year break.

Saturday’s results: Mongolian Sunrise broke nicely and that is about all I can say. The horse would be over-matched in an $8k claimer. As for using all in my Pick 4 bet. That is a sure-fire way to get the favorite to win!

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Big races review

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Saturday.

Fair Grounds (8): $100,000 Tom Benson Memorial Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Winner: Shre’sonthewarpath ($9.40)

Fair Grounds (9): Grade 2 $400,000 New Orleans Classic, 4 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Winner: By My Standards ($6.60)

Fair Grounds (10): $300,000 Grade 2 Muniz Memorial Classic, 4 and up, 1 1/8 miles on turf. Winner: Factor This ($21.00)

Fair Grounds (11): Grade 2 $400,000 Fair Grounds Oaks, fillies 3-years-old, 1 1/16 miles. Winner: Bonny South ($14.20)

Santa Anita (5): Grade 3 $100,000 San Simeon Stakes, 3 and up, 5 ½ furlongs on turf. Winner: Cistron ($10.80)

Fair Grounds (12): Grade 2 $1 million Louisiana Derby, 3-year-olds, 1 3/16 miles. Winner: Wells Bayou ($8.40)

Santa Anita (7): Grade 2 $200,000 San Luis Rey Stakes, 4 and up, 1 ½ miles on turf. Winner: Ward ‘n Jerry ($5.60)

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Sunday. All times PDT.

4:09 Santa Anita (8): $100,000 Sensational Star Stakes, 4 and up, 5 ½ furlongs on turf. Favorite: Lieutenant Dan (7-2)

Chris Wade’s LA pick of the day

RACE ONE: No. 5 Madera Jubilee (4-1)

This big bodied gray mare went way better than looked when running fifth in a solid straight maiden affair at 870 yards on March 15. In that race, she broke over two lengths slow to be last away from the gate and she went to climbing far back trying to avoid the thrown back dirt in her face. After the tough start, this mare put forth an even run down the backstretch prior to moving well through the turn and finally finishing fairly well down the lane with a solid gallop out past the wire. She’ll be a medium price, but she’s worth a look as she looks to earn that elusive maiden victory.

Now the stars of the show, Saturday’s results and Sunday’s entries.