Racing! Jon White’s first Belmont rankings

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we head into a long weekend of racing.

Before we get to Jon White’s rankings, a reminder we’ll be starting our countdown of Triple Crown winners, revealed in reverse order of their rankings, on Saturday. We’ve put together 11 of the best minds in racing to come up with the rankings and it should spur some debate among racing afficienados. (Of course, Jon is on the panel, and I’m not, so it has legitimacy.)

Jon White’s Belmont rankings

In case you forgot, Jon is an historian of the sport of horse racing and also does the morning line at Santa Anita. In short, he knows his stuff. The floor is yours, Jon.

“Justify demonstrated the resolve to get the job done last Saturday on a sloppy track in the 1 3/16-mile Preakness Stakes when pushed harder than he ever had before. With ‘Big Money’ Mike Smith again in the saddle, Justify prevailed by a half-length to remain undefeated in five career starts.

“Two weeks earlier, when also competing on a sloppy track, Justify won the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby by 2 1/2 lengths. He now moves on to the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes on June 9 with a chance to become the 13th Triple Crown winner.

“Many have knocked Justify for not winning the Preakness by a larger margin. But keep in mind that he got the job done despite ‘slipping a lot’ on the wet surface, according to Smith.

“It is quite hard for any horse to win any race, let alone a 1 3/16-mile classic, without ever getting a breather. And Justify ran hard the entire way in the Preakness. He got embroiled in a prolonged duel with Good Magic that continued all the way down the backstretch, around the far turn and in the homestretch until inside the final sixteenth. Justify finally put away Good Magic — last year's Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male champion — in the last sixteenth. When Justify did that, it looked like he was in good shape. But then, in the final yards, he had to stave off late challenges from Bravazo and Tenfold.

“Most horses would have won the battle with Good Magic only to then lose the war. But Justify showed yet again that he is not like most horses.

“Smith said to Mike Willman last Sunday on the radio program Thoroughbred Los Angeles: ‘Sometimes you gotta win ugly. Even the great Secretariat got beat. This is a horse who was in a dogfight for a good seven-eighths of a mile and still held off the competition. We should be commending him and not looking at him winning by only half a length.’

“This year's Preakness continued trainer Bob Baffert's assault on the record books. Justify increased Baffert's number of Preakness wins to seven, tying the record set by Robert Walden in the 1880s. Additionally, after this year's Preakness, Baffert finds himself in a tie with D. Wayne Lukas for the most victories in a Triple Crown race. Baffert and Lukas each have 14.

“Baffert now is a perfect five for five when running a Kentucky Derby winner two weeks later in the Preakness. The white-haired conditioner has won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness with Silver Charm in 1997, Real Quiet in 1998, War Emblem in 2002, American Pharoah in 2015 and Justify this year.

“It seems fair to say that Baffert's perfection with Kentucky Derby winners in the Preakness ranks right up there among the finest training feats of all time, perhaps not too far below Woody Stephens’ five consecutive Belmont Stakes wins. In what many consider to be the greatest training feat in the history of American racing, Stephens won the Belmont with Conquistador Cielo in 1982, Caveat in 1983, Swale in 1984, Creme Fraiche in 1985 and Danzig Connection in 1986. The winning streak came to an end when Gone West finished sixth in the 1987 Belmont won by Bet Twice.

“I have Audible at No. 2 in this week's Belmont Stakes rankings. He figures to be one of the most serious threats to Justify's Triple Crown bid — that is, if Audible runs in the Belmont. Audible won the Holy Bull Stakes and Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park before being edged by Good Magic for second in the Kentucky Derby. What makes Audible's participation in the Belmont uncertain is overlapping ownership — WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, et al — with Justify. As of this writing, no announcement had been made yet as to whether Audible is or is not running in the Belmont.�

Here are this week's Belmont Stakes rankings:

1. Justify

2. Audible

3. Hofburg

4. My Boy Jack

5. Bravazo

6. Tenfold

7. Vino Rosso

8. Free Drop Billy

9. Restoring Hope

10. Gronkowski

Santa Anita review

Sorry Erik won the one-mile feature at Santa Anita on Thursday. Trained by Keith Desormeaux and ridden by his brother Kent, he took the allowance by ¾ of a length.

“I hope he’s my next handicap horse,� Kent Desormeaux told Mike Willman of Santa Anita. “He’s been working lights out, so it’s great to see him run like this.�

He paid $4.60, $2.80 and $2.20.

Magic Mark finished second and River Echo was third.

Santa Anita preview

Friday’s card is certainly a sign that Santa Anita is starting to run on empty as it heads toward the end of its monstorously long season in about a month. There are eight races, starting at 12:30 p.m., and five of them have only six starters. Six of the eight races are for claimers and there are three down-the-hill turf races.

Now, Saturday is a very good card with two Grade 1s, including the Gold Cup, which might be making its last appearance in this spot. There is talk about moving the Santa Anita Handicap to late in the meet. In its current spot, a lot of the good horses are running for a lot more money in Dubai. Moving it to this part of the year could be a way to revitalize the race. But, this is Friday and the Gold Cup is Saturday. And next year is far away.

The feature should be third race, an allowance/optional claimer going 6 ½ furlongs down the hill. It only has six starters but they are going for a purse of $63,000.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 6, 6, 6, 6, 8, 6, 7, 10.

Bob Ike’s SA play of the day

SEVENTH RACE: No. 4 Painting Corners (7-2)

Comebacker from the Peter Miller has been away since a winning effort at Del Mar in November. The 4-year-old filly likes the downhill layout, has speed to make the lead or stalk and figures to fire a good shot off the bench in this wide-open allowance/optional claimer.

Thursday’s result: Got one-third of my exacta/trifecta box home with Upo but my other two longshot partners were nowhere to be found in the fifth race.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here’s a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Los Alamitos weekend preview

This weekly segment is in the hands of Orlando Gutierrez, marketing and media maven at Los Al. So, the floor is yours, Orlando.

“There is a Pick 6 carryover of more than $13,000 heading into Friday’s eight-race program at Los Alamitos, which means that the total Pick 6 pool with the new money wagered could be more than $50,000. The Pick 6 starts in the third race, which is an 870-yard race for non-winners of two races. First post is 7 p.m.

“Martin Valenzuela Jr.’s Hack is one of the top contenders in the third race after posting a hard-fought neck victory here in his last start on April 15. The 5-year-old gelding also crossed the wire first in his career debut back on Jan. 20 at Los Alamitos, but was disqualified and placed sixth. Another solid runner in the third is Sam Bunch’s Sermonize, who won his last start by 3/4 lengths in only his second career outing.

“In the second race of the Pick 6, Kevin Lizardi’s Shaula looks like a standout at 870 yards. The Jose Jesus Avalos trained runner beat $3,200 claimers by 6 3/4 lengths on Feb. 25 and then returned to beat $5,000 claimers by 5 1/4 lengths. She was an odds-on favorite in both races. Robert Restaino’s Rcatcanscat has won races at Del Mar and Santa Anita in the past, but will be making her first start in more than a year in this event. Charles Treece will saddle the 4-year-old Discreet Cat filly.

“Three consecutive races for 2-year-olds will make up the third, fourth and fifth legs of the Pick 6. A couple of 2-year-olds to watch are Always Dreaming and Zip Zip, juveniles sired by the stakes winning thoroughbred stallion Run Away And Hide, who has also sired graded stakes winning thoroughbreds.

“The card wraps up with the quarter-horse feature, a $12,600 allowance event for 3-year-olds and up at 350 yards. Lucky Seven Ranch’s Lotta Blues Man is the marquee name in the race, as he’s a winner of more than $931,000 and the victor of the Grade 1 Golden State Million Futurity in 2016. The 4-year-old son of Favorite Cartel will be making his first start since running third in the Grade 2 Southern California Derby last December. He won the Town Policy Handicap on Nov. 11. Dutch Masters III’s Katella Deli, the runner-up in the Los Alamitos Super Derby and Governor’s Cup Derby last year, and Reliance Ranches’ 5-year-old The Charm Of Corona, who finished second to the outstanding BH Lisas Boy in the Grade 1 Vessels Maturity last year, also figure to challenge in this sprint.�

Ed Burgart’s LA play of the day

SEVENTH RACE: No. 9 Lead By Fire (4-1)

He exits a very strong race when better-than-looked fifth in debut. After losing position early from between horses after getting lightly bumped from both sides, he angled from the five to the three lane by the 1/8-pole. Gelding then galloped out strong in race where runnerup Deceiver came back to beat maidens and third-place finisher Bac In Time returned to finish second in maiden contest. Lead By Fire now moves to the comfortable far outside post and faces a much softer field.

Final thought

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And now the stars of the show, Thursday’s results and Friday’s entries.

SHANGHAI FANTASY had good early speed and dueled inside, inched away leaving the turn, kicked clear in the stretch under some urging and held. BEA'S BOY saved ground chasing the pace, came a bit off the rail in deep stretch and finished well. BABY FRANKIE broke inward, chased three deep to the stretch and was edged for second. ZIP'S SECRET angled in and dueled outside the winner, stalked leaving the turn and into the stretch and was edged for third between foes late. TEMPLE VIEW forced in at the break, chased between horses, drifted inward in the stretch and did not rally. IRISH TERRIER squeezed back at the start, chased off the rail, came three wide into the stretch and could not offer the necessary response.

TRUE VALOR stalked off the rail, bid outside the leader on the turn, took the advantage into the stretch, inched away under left handed urging in midstretch and won clear. MATRICULATE stalked the pace inside, came out leaving the turn and again into the stretch and went outside a rival late for the place. ROCKET FUEL broke in and bumped a rival, sped to the early lead, set the pace inside, dueled on the turn and into the stretch, was not a match for the winner in the drive and was edged late for second. VAN LINGLE MUNGO bobbled slightly just after the start, stalked off the rail, went outside a rival on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and weakened. HERE AND THERE broke a bit slowly and was bumped, angled in and saved ground chasing the pace and weakened in the drive.

HARD ARCH stalked between horses then bit three deep between foes on the backstretch and outside the runner-up on the second turn and into the stretch, gained the lead in upper stretch and pulled clear in the final sixteenth under urging. SUPREME GIANT sped to the early lead, set the pace a bit off the rail then dueled between horses on the backstretch and into the second turn, fought back just off the fence on that turn and into the stretch, could not match the winner in the final furlong but held second. VEGAS ITCH between rivals early, was in a bit tight into the first turn, chased just off the rail then outside a rival, came out leaving the second turn and four wide into the stretch and was edged for the place. CHIKSIKA four wide into the first turn, bid four wide between foes on the backstretch and into the second turn, continued three wide leaving that turn and into the stretch and weakened. ROYAL REBEL stalked inside then a bit off the rail on the backstretch and along the fence on the second turn and into the stretch and lacked a rally. TIZ THE TICKET pulled along the inside and steadied leaving the first turn, bid from the rail on the backstretch, fell back inside on the second turn and weakened in the drive. HERKIMER STORM five wide into the first turn, bid five wide on the backstretch then four wide on the second turn, angled in between foes leaving that turn and also weakened.

SMILING ANGELO had speed between horses then angled in and set the pace inside, inched away on the turn and drew clear under some left handed urging and good handling. FIRE TO THE WIRE stalked outside a rival, came out into the stretch, drifted in some in the drive and was clearly second best. SHADES OF VICTORY chased off the rail then three deep leaving the backstretch and on the turn and into the stretch and picked up the show. MORGAN S. stalked inside then a bit off the rail to the stretch, drifted to the inside in the drive and weakened. TRICKONOMICS stalked outside a rival then between horses leaving the backstretch and just off the rail on the turn and into the stretch and also weakened. BRICKHOUSE saved ground chasing the pace, dropped back inside on the turn, came out into the stretch and gave way.

UPO pulled between horses then went up four wide between foes midway on the hill, angled in off the rail leaving the hill, came out in upper stretch and rallied under left handed urging to catch the runner-up nearing the wire. CONQUEST SMARTEE stalked outside, moved up five wide midway on the hill then three deep, bid outside the pacesetter leaving the hill to gain the lead nearing the stretch, inched away in deep stretch and was caught late. HARLISS had speed three deep then inched away and angled in on the hill, dueled inside the runner-up leaving the hill and into the stretch, fought back inside in midstretch, could not match the to pair in the final sixteenth but bested the others. IT'S ALEXUS chased toward the inside then three deep leaving the hill and into the stretch and lacked a rally. SUN AND SHADOW (GB) saved ground chasing the pace, came a bit off the rail in the stretch and weakened. FRANKIE MACHINE broke a bit slowly, settled inside, went around a rival on the dirt crossing and into the stretch and did not rally. IVY MIKE pulled between horses to press the early pace, stalked three deep then angled in between rivals on the hill and a bit off the rail into the stretch and weakened, then unseated the rider while being pulled up on the clubhouse turn. WAR LINK pulled between horses early, pressed the pace a bit off the rail then dropped back between horses, angled to the inside leaving the hill and gave way, then was eased in the final furlong. Rail on hill at 14 feet.

MIRACLE MARCH sped to the early lead, set the pace inside then dueled along the rail on the backstretch and second turn, inched away into the stretch and drew clear under urging and steady handling late. WISE CURLIN stalked off the rail then bid outside the winner on the backstretch and second turn, was not a match for that one in the stretch but clearly best of the rest. MOONMAN a step slow to begin, settled off the rail then angled in and went up inside on the backstretch and second turn, came out into the stretch and picked up the show. SHACKALOV stalked inside then between foes leaving the backstretch, continued just off the rail on the second turn, came out into the stretch and weakened. TACO TUESDAY chased off the rail then outside, went up four wide a half mile out, continued outside then off the inside on the second turn and gave way. STATES HERO settled off the rail chasing the pace, continued three deep between foes leaving the backstretch, dropped back and angled to the inside on the second turn and had nothing left for the drive.

SORRY ERIK had speed between foes then angled in, set the pace inside, dueled on the backstretch and second turn, fought back along the inside in the stretch and held on gamely under urging. MAGIC MARK three deep early, stalked outside a rival then bid alongside the winner on the backstretch and second turn, battled outside that one through the stretch and continued willingly to the end. RIVER ECHO (GB) close up stalking the pace along the inside, came a bit off the rail in the stretch and bested the others. POINT PIPER saved ground stalking the pace, came out into the stretch and weakened. HOME RUN KITTEN chased between horses on the first turn then outside a rival, came out four wide into the stretch and also weakened. FERGUSON bobbled sharply at the start when the ground broke out behind then steadied in the opening strides, pulled his way along three deep on the first turn then stalked off the rail, came three wide into the stretch and had little left for the drive.

BOB'S BAD BOY had good early speed and dueled inside, inched away down the hill, came a bit off the rail in the stretch and held gamely under urging. CAMPS BAY broke a bit slowly, angled in after the right hand curve, saved ground, split horses leaving the hill, came three deep into the stretch, angled inward past midstretch and continued willingly but could not catch the winner. SILVER FURY stalked outside then four wide midway on the hill and three deep leaving the hill, came four wide into the stretch and was outfinished. BIG BAD GARY dueled between horses then stalked just off the rail, steadied in tight off heels onto the dirt crossing, angled in and weakened. GREAT COMMISSION chased a bit off the inside then along the rail, came out leaving the hill and three wide into the stretch and also weakened. CHAAA broke in some and a bit slowly then steadied, settled off the rail, angled in some leaving the hill and lacked a response in the stretch. PASTORELLI chased just off the rail then between horses on the hill, drifted five wide into the stretch and weakened. COURTSHIP dueled three deep then stalked outside a rival, drifted to the inside in the stretch and gave way. Rail on hill at 14 feet.