Some predictions (good news for Anthony Davis) as season begins for the Lakers

Hey everyone, it’s Dan Woike and this is the Lakers newsletter. Please stay six to 12 feet away from me for the next few days because I’m playing hurt, but I still wanted to make sure I touched base before the start of the regular season.

All the buildup is over, the preseason is wrapped and the real stuff starts Tuesday. So, here are a bunch of predictions that I hope you’ll never go back and check at the end of the season.

Anthony Davis has his defining season

His best stretch of basketball as a Laker came in the bubble, but since then, he’s been plagued by a short turnaround and some injury bad luck. But in his second season in Darvin Ham’s system, empowered by a stretch without LeBron James last season, he can fully settle into being the Lakers’ most important player. Davis, should he be on the court for 65-plus games (he hasn’t done that since 2018), has a real shot to win his first Defensive Player of the Year award. He’s due for some better luck; here’s betting that he’ll get some.

LeBron James will average under 25 points per game

James has been over that number in 20 of his 21 NBA seasons (he averaged 20.9 as a rookie), but the stage seems set for him to be more of a passer and rebounder with plenty of offensive talent around him. James averaged 25.3 points in the Lakers title season and 25 per game the year after (the last time the Lakers felt this stable). His scoring isn’t as tied to winning as it’s been the past two years, and above everything, James is about winning.

Austin Reaves will average 18 points per game

Easy bet. Every time he’s been challenged as a pro, Reaves has come through. He’ll be asked to do more as a ball-handler, which could affect his defense and test his durability, but coming off his Team USA summer, another step is expected.

The Lakers won’t open 2-10.

7-5 seems reasonable (though those Orlando games are scarier than people realize because of the Magic’s size).

Christian Wood is going to have a rough November

My friend John Schumann is a wonderful number-cruncher (among other things) over at NBA.com and he noted that Wood was a league-worst minus-58 in six preseason games. He really struggled to find his rhythm, a problem for any volume scorer taking on a lesser role. But when you consider that he barely played pickup this summer during his prolonged free agency, his legs aren’t underneath him either. He’s got to play himself into shape — but he needs to be more productive too. Dealing with one of those things would be tough enough. Two is brutal.

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Be sure to check out the new Times Lakers Show, a video podcast with me and Broderick Turner. Got any questions? Comments? Shoot me an email and we can address them on the show. Click here to watch.

Song of the Week

“Eye Know� by De La Soul

My kids absolutely love the new Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles movie, and this classic gets a nice spot in the film. Also a fitting prediction tune. One other thought: is Steely Dan sneakily the most sampled rock band on hip-hop songs I love?

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