Dodgers Dugout: Mookie Betts and the myth of the Home Run Derby curse

Hi, and welcome to another edition of Dodgers Dugout. My name is Houston Mitchell. It’s All-Star break time, the most quiet week of the sports year.

Oh, no, here we go again. Mookie Betts announces he will participate in the Home Run Derby, and some Dodgers fans are freaking out that it will ruin him forever. Despite there being no evidence to back up this fear, except for a generic “Look what happened to Joc Pederson.” Of course, the fact Pederson began slumping before the Home Run Derby that year is ignored.

No, the Home Run Derby will not ruin Betts.

Before the 2015 All-Star Game, Pederson hit .230/.364/.487 with 20 homers and an OPS+ of 139. After the All-Star Game he hit .178/.317/.300 with six homers and an OPS+ of 71. Problem solved, right? It was obviously the Derby that did him in. But wait. Let’s take a closer look.

In his last 20 games before the 2015 All-Star Game, Pederson hit .159/.266/.304, which is even worse than what he did after the All-Star Game. So, Pederson’s slump started around mid-June, almost one month before the All-Star break even began.

How can we blame the Home Run Derby for something that was already happening? We can’t.

The entire Home Run Derby jinx is urban legend, with no facts to back it up. The biggest example most people still use is Chris Davis, who hit 37 homers before the 2013 Home Run Derby and only 16 after. But do we really think Chris Davis was going to hit 70 homers that season? His overall numbers were still excellent after the break, so saying it jinxed him is quite a reach. He then had a season in which he hit 47 and 38 homers before the wheels fell off of his career.

Davis was no different from Reggie Jackson in 1969. He had 37 homers at the break. After the break, he hit 11. If that happened now, everyone would be screaming that the Home Run Derby had ruined him (though it would have been great to see Reggie in a Home Run Derby).

In 1969, Frank Howard had 34 homers at the break. He hit 14 after. No Home Run Derby to mess up his swing.

Also keep in mind that most players are selected to compete in the Derby because they are having a monstrous first half. Mike Trout has a career OPS+ of 174, making him the active leader. (OPS+ compares hitters to the league average. An average hitter will have an OPS+ of 100. Trout’s 174 means he is 74% better than the average hitter over the same time.) Only three active players have a career OPS+ of at least 150 and only 40 players in history have a career OPS+ of at least 150 (minimum 3,000 plate appearances).

But from 2012-22, 31 of the 82 Home Run Derby competitors had an OPS+ over 150 at the time. There was no place for them to go but down, and all but four did. Those four: David Wright in 2013 (from 151 to 154), Jose Bautista in 2014 (158-174), Giancarlo Stanton in 2014 (163-182) and Charlie Blackmon in 2017 (151-182). The other 27 didn’t suffer from a jinx, they just regressed to their normal numbers.

Of the 82 Home Run Derby participants from 2012-22 (I’m not including two participants who were injured early in the second half and had limited playing time), only nine could have what could be considered a below-average second half, meaning an OPS+ below 100 after the break. Those nine: Mark Trumbo (162-74) in 2012, Carlos Gonzalez (180-99) in 2012, Pedro Alvarez (127-95) in 2013, Albert Pujols (137-91) in 2015, Joc Pederson (139-71) in 2015, Todd Frazier (155-80) in 2015, Wil Myers (133-91) in 2016, Miguel Sano in 2017 (140-97) and Joey Gallo in 2021 (157-79). And we’ve already talked about Pederson.

Among those players who have improved after the Home Run Derby: Then-Dodgers Corey Seager, who had an OPS+ of 135 before the 2016 break and 138 after, and Pederson, who was 124 before and 135 after in 2019.

Only two players have gone into the Derby with an OPS+ of below 100, Yoenis Cespedes (97) in 2013. After the break his OPS+ was 114. Last year, Albert Pujols had an OPS+ of 92 before, and an amazing 206 after (as a part-time player).

Of all the players to compete in the Derby, only one, Bobby Abreu, has said it hurt him in the second half. That was in 2005, when he won the derby. He had an OPS+ of 154 (with 18 homers) before the derby and 113 after (with six homers).

Some players get worse after the break, some get better, and some stay the same. But now we have something to peg it to. Something we can blame it on. Because it is human nature to want to find something to blame. But we’ve picked the wrong thing.

Miguel Vargas sent down?

Miguel Vargas, one of the most heralded Dodgers prospects of recent memory, has, to be blunt, been a complete bust this season. And he’s getting worse. He looks lost at the plate. From June 9 till today, he is five for 61, an .082 average. He’s not striking out a lot, so that’s good, but he’s not hitting the ball with any authority whatsoever. And the Dodgers finally noticed, sending him to the minors on Sunday.

The writing was on the wall Friday, when Dave Roberts said:

“I think everything should be on the table, I really do.

“There’s a piece of winning here, and there’s also a piece of putting his mind where it needs to be, because clearly right now, he’s pressing. He’s never struggled like this.

“Wins are always important, and there comes a point where we’ve got to run out our best options out there to win a baseball game. So I think that having that optionality to have Mookie in the dirt, to pick matchups for Miguel Vargas, is smart.

“I do believe the defense is getting better, and the experience of being at the major league level is helpful. But it’s also helpful to feel yourself getting some hits and getting your confidence going.

“I do think [he adds to the team], but at what point do you decide that it could be detrimental? I don’t know the answer right now, but having a conversation is in his best interest and is healthy.”

Hopefully Vargas straightens himself out in Oklahoma City and comes back as the player the Dodgers imagined.

Guess what?

In this brutal, grim season, the Dodgers enter the All-Star break in first place (by two percentage points) in the NL West. And that’s why you can’t live and die with every single game result.

Guess what, part II?

Craig Kimbrel, who Dodgers fans learned to dislike last season, was named to the NL All-Star team as an injury replacement. He is 5-1 with 14 saves and a 3.41 ERA with the Philadelphia Phillies. He has 57 strikeouts in 37 innings. He got off to a terrible start, and had a 6.35 ERA on May 21. Since then he has given up two runs in 20 innings, striking out 28.

Drafting

With their first pick (36th pick overall) in this year’s draft, the Dodgers selected Atascodia (Texas) High School outfielder Kendall George. This was a surprise, as most experts had George slated to go in the third round. According to scouting bureau Perfect Game USA, George is a “Plus-plus runner, left-handed bat with above average bat speed, contact quality improved this spring, good instincts on bases. Defense projection in CF, game-breaker speed.

You can watch George in action here.

In round two, with the 60th overall pick, the Dodgers selected third baseman Jake Gelof of Virginia. From Perfect Game USA: “Huge performer at UVA, unorthodox swing with big RH power, does do a fair job limiting K’s, good arm at 3B with projection to stay there, power over hit 3B type.”

To read more about both players, go here.

Poll

I have received some feedback from readers that they are tired of reading the “What Vin Scully meant to me” section. It’s a fair point, since it has been running for a year now. So, let’s throw it open to the readership: Are you tired of it and want it to stop now? Vote here to let me know.

Who is the greatest Dodger of all time?

We haven’t had much fun this season. With the recent skid, off-field issues and everything seeming heavier this year for some reason, it’s time to inject some fun back into this newsletter by bringing back something we haven’t done since 2018.

Who is the greatest Dodger of all time? Jackie Robinson? Sandy Koufax? Vin Scully? Clayton Kershaw? Lance Rautzhan? The list is endless. So, I am asking for your help.

I want you to send me your list of the 10 greatest Dodgers of all time. They can be L.A. Dodgers or Brooklyn Dodgers. Managers count, as do general managers, owners and announcers. In short, anyone who has been connected with the Dodgers in some way is eligible. You and the rest of the readers of this newsletter will decide who is the greatest.

So, I need you to email me your list of whom you consider to be the 10 greatest. Please list them in order from 1-10. Points will be assigned based on their place in the ballot, with 12 points going to your No. 1 choice, nine points for No. 2, eight points for No. 3, seven points for No. 4, all the way down to one point for No. 10. And please, please, please don’t say, “this is just in any order.” Give it some thought. Travel down memory lane and enjoy it. If you have already sent me your list, I have it, so no need to vote again.

Voting will remain open through July 15, and we will count down the top 20 vote-getters soon after that. So, send me your list! Send to [email protected] and please make sure the subject line says: 10 greatest Dodgers.

In case you missed it

Hernández: Julio Urías is the ace the Dodgers desperately need. He just needs to play like it.

The Dodgers are favorites to sign Shohei Ohtani. Will the third time be the charm?

Dodgers scouting director tackles unique challenge: guiding his son, Will Gasparino, on eve of MLB draft

Hernández: Is Dave Roberts right? Will less talent and more hunger equal a Dodgers World Series?

And finally

Duke Snider takes on Hank Aaron in the original “Home Run Derby.” Watch and listen here.