Breaking down Chargers' 5 games, a sweep only path to playoffs

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He summarized the significance of his team’s latest victory by assigning it maximum value, Brandon Staley going with “10 out of 10.”

Given that fact, how important does that make the Chargers’ next game, against Denver? Safety Derwin James Jr. did not hesitate before declaring “12 out of 10,” explaining AFC West games count double.

Believe it, with their season just one more teeter from toppling, the Chargers would win twice Sunday at SoFi Stadium if they could.

They are 5-7 and 12th in the conference with seven teams ahead of them for three AFC wild-card spots.

With so much traffic blocking their way, finishing 10-7 is the Chargers’ surest path to the postseason, meaning they must win out, the most unlikely of conclusions to a season no one saw unfolding quite like this.

The New York Times’ playoff simulator has the Chargers’ chances of advancing at 7%. If they finish without another defeat — that would be a six-game winning streak for a team that to date hasn’t won more than two in a row — that number goes up to 96%.

All of which means the Chargers have entered the “Hail Mary” portion of their campaign, one final desperate heave about all that remains in a season that has been largely forgettable.

So, let’s look at the remaining five games and why the Chargers could win or lose each, bearing in mind that, historically, more “Hail Marys” are intercepted than completed.

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vs. Denver Broncos, Week 14

Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton points from the sideline.

Why winning can happen: The Broncos are in the middle of three consecutive games on the road — an odd scheduling imbalance — and just lost at Houston.

Denver’s offensive coordinator is Joe Lombardi, who held the same position with the Chargers the last two seasons. So, Staley is plenty familiar with what Lombardi likes to do, especially in key situations.

Why losing can happen: Following three straight defeats to open the year, the Broncos thrust themselves into playoff contention by winning five in a row before the loss to the Texans.

Head coach Sean Payton made no secret of his interest in the Chargers’ job after last season and now has a chance Sunday to prove to the team’s management that keeping Staley over him was a mistake.

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at Las Vegas Raiders, Week 15

Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) stiff arms Raiders defensive end Isaac Rochell (96) in October.

Why winning can happen: The Chargers already defeated the Raiders 24-17 in Week 4. They led that game 24-7 at halftime and still had a two-touchdown edge with four minutes remaining.

Las Vegas enjoyed some success in the immediate aftermath of Josh McDaniels being fired. But reality has returned. The Raiders are 2-4 over their last six games, with the wins coming over New York’s two shaky teams.

Why losing can happen: The Chargers won their first game at Allegiant Stadium during the COVID year of 2020, a 30-27 overtime triumph sealed by a Justin Herbert touchdown.

But their last two visits have been nightmarish. They were knocked out of playoff contention at Las Vegas on the final play of the 2021 season and blew two first-half leads there last December in a game with major postseason implications.

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vs. Buffalo Bills, Week 16

Bills quarterback Josh Allen gets off a pass under pressure against the Patriots.

Why winning can happen: Similar to the Chargers, Buffalo has had an uneven season that so far has fallen short of expectations and there will be less time for the Bills to prepare for this Saturday road game. Since impressively handling Miami on Oct. 1, the Bills are 3-5.

Even worse, they’ve struggled notably on the road, where their losses include visits to the New York Jets and New England Patriots, two of the AFC’s worst teams.

Why losing can happen: The Bills’ starting quarterback is Josh Allen. Along with Kirk Cousins, the Chargers this season have beaten Aidan O’Connell, Tyson Bagent, Zach Wilson and Bailey Zappe.

They’ve lost to Tua Tagovailoa, Ryan Tannehill, Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff, Jordan Love and Lamar Jackson. Guess which group Allen fits in better?

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at Denver Broncos, Week 17

General view of Empower Field at Mile High in Denver.

Why winning can happen: The Broncos have played well at home lately but opened with consecutive losses to Las Vegas and Washington, teams that eventually would fire their head coach and defensive coordinator, respectively.

Playing on New Year’s Eve probably is easier — meaning fewer distractions — for the road team. Even if that isn’t necessarily the case, it sounds good enough for purposes of this exercise.

Why losing can happen: For the Chargers, Denver’s home stadium is less mile high and more six feet under. They’ve won there once since December 2013, a string of 10 games.

A year ago, Staley’s fortunes turned in Denver when he played many of his regulars deep into the second half of a game that had no playoff ramifications, losing wide receiver Mike Williams to injury along the way.

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vs. Kansas City Chiefs, Week 18

Chargers cornerback Ja'Sir Taylor prevents a completion to Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) in October.

Why winning can happen: Typically by this point of the season, the Chiefs have little to play for as they prepare for another postseason run. Under such circumstances, the Chargers beat Kansas City’s backups 38-21 in Week 17 of the 2020 season.

The Chargers have lost four in a row in this series, including a 31-17 decision on the road in October. But this is not the typical dominant Chiefs team, giving the Chargers their best shot in a while.

Why losing can happen: Well, this isn’t just another dominant Chiefs team, meaning Kansas City might need this game for playoff-seeding purposes. For the first time, Patrick Mahomes might have to play on the road in the postseason.

Even when they’ve played well, the Chargers have had issues defending tight end Travis Kelce. It’s not hard to envision Kelce scoring late and dramatically to lift the Chiefs into a better playoff spot at the Chargers’ expense.