Romney’s ‘Mormon problem’: Republicans are more tolerant, Democrats less so

In a column last week, I argued that Mitt Romney’s “Mormon problem� is basically over now that he’s sewn up the Republican presidential nomination. Romney’s religion was a challenge for him in the Republican primary race, when many evangelical Protestants hesitated to support a Mormon; but now that we’re in the general election campaign, that isn’t likely to matter anymore.

After I wrote, a new Gallup poll was released with an intriguing finding: The percentage of Americans who say they would not vote for a Mormon is virtually unchanged since 1967 -- 17% then, 18% now. That suggests that anti-Mormon feeling has been amazingly stable over half a century, a period during which voters’ reluctance to support candidates who were black, female or Jewish declined dramatically.

But the headline obscured an important point: Republicans are readier than ever to support a Mormon for president, but Democrats are less willing. On this issue, the GOP has grown more tolerant -- and Democrats less so.

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS: Presidential Election 2012

In the new Gallup poll, only 10% of Republicans said they would not vote for a GOP candidate who happened to be a Mormon. That’s way down from 30% in early 2007, when Romney was testing the waters for his first presidential campaign, and significantly lower than the 18% recorded in late 2007.

Meanwhile, Democrats’ aversion to members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints has kicked up a notch: The poll found that 24% said they would not vote for a Democratic candidate for president who happened to be a Mormon. That’s about equal to the 23% who answered that way in early 2007, but more than the 18% who said no in late 2007.

It’s hard to avoid seeing a straightforward “Romney effect� here. Now that Republican voters know that their nominee is going to be a Mormon, many of those who said they’d never vote for one are eating their words. Now that Democratic voters see a Mormon on the GOP ticket, they’re discovering all kinds of things about the LDS Church to dislike. It’s got nothing to do with doctrine; voters are adjusting their opinions on religion to fit their political preferences.

So will the “Mormon question� affect the outcome of the presidential election? It doesn’t look as if it will affect GOP turnout. Romney’s level of support among Republicans, including evangelical Protestants, is about 90%, equal to John McCain’s in 2008. The uptick in anti-Mormon sentiment among Democrats doesn’t matter either; most liberal, secular or African American voters wouldn’t have supported Romney regardless of church membership. The one worry for Romney, in a close election, lies in that tiny sliver of swing voters who are up for grabs. Among independents, 18% said they couldn’t vote for a Mormon -- still more than admit to similar qualms about voting for, say, an African American.

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