Poll Analysis: Davis’ Job Rating Falters

     Despite Californians' belief that the energy crisis has not been addressed in a timely or satisfactory way by anyone--from Bush and his administration to Governor Davis, the state Legislature, the utility companies, the California PUC or FERC (Federal Energy Regulatory Commission)--Davis is still the candidate to beat in the 2002 gubernatorial election. Among registered voters, he handily beats his GOP challengers: former mayor of Los Angeles Richard Riordan (the favored choice of the White House and state Republicans), Secretary of State Bill Jones and L.A. investment banker William Simon Jr., according to a new Los Angeles Times Poll.

Davis and the Power Crisis
     Both Davis, the state Republicans and the White House are waging public relations wars on who is to blame for the energy crisis in California. The governor is so far winning. When asked who is doing the better job of solving the energy crisis, Governor Davis bests President Bush by almost 4 to 1 among registered voters, although both receive negative marks in their overall job performance. Nearly half of voters disapprove of the way Bush is handling his job and even more are wary of the way he and his administration have handled the electricity situation. Davis fares much better than the president in handling the energy situation, but his performance on this issue has declined dramatically from a Times Poll taken in February.
     There has been a lot of finger pointing by the Republicans blaming the governor for not acting quickly enough, secret negotiations with the utility companies and just his overall handling of the crisis. Davis, too, has pointed fingers at the Republicans stating that he inherited a lot of the problem from former Governor Wilson. Also, under Republican administrations--for at least a decade--no power plants have been built. The negative public relations war is affecting both factions. If you throw enough negative images, some of it will surely stick. With this steady stream of diatribe from both sides, Davis is now viewed more negatively by voters than in the February poll. However, Bush and his administration are pulling in poorer marks for handling the state's energy problem than the governor--voters are somewhat divided in their feelings toward Davis.

Among registered voters:

Overall Job Ratings

	DAVIS		BUSH
	NOW	FEB.	NOW
Approve	43%	56%	42%
Disapprove	46	32	47
Don't Know	11	12	11

Handling Electricity Situation

	DAVIS		BUSH
	NOW	FEB.	NOW	FEB.
Approve	45%	51%	25%	34%
Disapprove	49	36	68	47
Don't Know	6	13	7	19

     However, with 16 months before the November 2002 election, Davis appears less politically vulnerable than many would have expected. In a Times Poll taken in March 1993, when then Governor Wilson was preparing for his campaign running for a second term, he was in much worse shape than Davis is in now. In that poll, 31% of voters approved of his handling of his job, while 60% disapproved. The state was in the throes of a recession and just 18% of voters thought the state was on the right course, compared to 73% who thought the state was seriously off on the wrong track. Also 93% of the voters felt the state's economy was shaky. In the current survey, 30% of voters think the state is pointed in the right direction, while 57% think it is off on the wrong track. More than 7 out of ten voters think their personal finances are secure and two thirds believe the state's economy is doing well. There was, however, a precipitous drop of 17 points from last January's poll when more than 4 out of five voters felt the economy was in good shape. But the difference between the two election cycles is that the economy was the most important issue in 1993 and today, the concern is energy related matters. Two thirds of voters cite energy issues, such as energy deregulation, high electricity rates and gasoline prices.
     Davis should be slightly encouraged to learn that 38% of the electorate say that the way the governor handled the power crisis in the state would make no difference in how they would vote in the 2002 election and another 16% say they would be more inclined to vote for him. Two out of five say they would be less inclined to vote for him because of his job performance dealing with the energy situation.
     The governor is walking a fine line in his handling of the power situation. Whether he crosses over to one side or the other will determine his success or not. Nearly half of the electorate disapproved of the way he handled the energy situation, while 45% approved. But he is doing much better than the other players.

68% of voters disapprove of Bush and his administration handling the energy situation 
51% disapprove of state lawmakers
75% disapprove of the utility companies
69% disapprove of the California's PUC (Public Utilities Commission)
62% disapprove of FERC (Federal Energy Regulatory Commission)

     Although Governor Davis was criticized by his detractors who say he started out too slowly in putting his arms around the energy problem, Davis countered that he was moving slowly to make sure he made all the right decisions. It seems to be paying off for him.His image has improved substantially. In a January Times Poll, 29% of the voters thought Davis was a decisive leader in trying to solve the energy problems, 47% did not. In the recent poll, 44% of the electorate think he has shown decisive leadership, while 48% do not.
     One of the governor's goals was to get price caps, which Bush and his administration strongly opposed. He got most of what he wanted. More than half of the voters think price caps are good because they will prevent price spikes during normal fluctuations in the electricity supply and demand. Just 29% think price caps are bad.
     He says thirteen new power plants have been approved, 8 under construction. One already completed. A new power plant just opened up on Wednesday in Bakersfield which will service over 250,000 households. Almost nine in ten voters favor building non nuclear power plants and almost two thirds say they are willing to see plants built in their community. Even 46% of voters approve of nuclear power plants to be built--a dramatic rise from a third of the voters who said they approved of these kinds of plants when the question was asked in a February poll.
     Some of his proposals, though, are not popular. He wanted to lock in reasonable rates and stabilize costs to consumers. He got it. However 38% of the voters approve of locking in rates while 47% disapprove because they believe it commits the state to a relatively high, if stable rate for years which could cost the consumers substantially more in the long run.
     He decided to relax emission controls at some of the polluting power plants this summer to help prevent blackouts. A bare majority of voters disapprove of this vs. 41% who approve. But given the state's problems, nearly half of the voters give higher priority to development of new energy resources to increase supply, while 28% want conservation practices to cut down on demand.
     Davis has been more successful in deflecting voter anger toward Bush and his administration than the other way around. Nearly 7 in 10 voters believe the president is doing too little to help California solve its energy problems. Nearly half of the voters agree with the statement that Bush is punishing California for not voting for him for president against Democrat Al Gore in the November 2000 election.

2002 Gubernatorial Election:Hypothetical matchups      Bill Jones and William Simon Jr. have already announced that they are running for governor as the Republican challenger to Davis. Richard Riordan has not announced his candidacy, but is being pressed into service by the state Republican party and the Bush administration. The Republicans feel that their best shot at winning is through the former mayor of LA. But if the election were held today, voters each time supported Davis over his little-known opponents by as much as 14% to 19%.
     
     

(1)	(2)	(3)
Davis   49%	Davis   51%	Davis   52%
Riordan   35	Jones   32	Simon   27

     In LA county, Davis beats Riordan by 15 points (51% vs. 36%). Riordan edges Davis in the rest of the southern part of the state 44% to 41%.
     Even though Jones is the current Secretary of State, 81% of voters haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion and another 4% have no impression of him. Simon, a relative newcomer to California politics, is barely known. Almost 9 out of 10 voters haven't heard enough about him to express any opinion about him and 4% don't know whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion. Richard Riordan does slightly better, with just about half (49%) of statewide voters not knowing anything about him and another 5% not sure how they feel. But 35% of voters have a favorable impression of him and 11% unfavorable. He was a popular mayor and left office with positive ratings, so it is not surprising that his biggest support and strong name recognition comes from Los Angeles. More than 3 out of 5 Los Angeleno voters have a favorable impression of the former mayor, as does 42% of the rest of the southern part of the state. He is not very well known outside these regions (just like his GOP counterparts).
     Davis does better in favorability ratings than he does in voters assessing his job performance. Nearly half of the voters have a favorable impression of him, while 41% have an unfavorable opinion. Just 7% haven't heard enough about him to warrant an opinion and 3% are undecided how they feel about him. His constituency of Democrats, liberals, moderates, Los Angeles county (where he is from), the Bay Area, women, Latinos, the elderly and all socioeconomic levels give Davis positive ratings. A third of Republicans have a favorable impression of the governor, as do 3 in ten self-described conservatives.

How the Poll Was Conducted      The Times Poll contacted 1,541 Californians, including 1,216 registered voters, by telephone June 23-26. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and region. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample and for registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. The poll was conducted in English and Spanish.