After starting small, the presidential campaign has exploded into a nationwide contest that on Tuesday could all but decide the Democratic and Republican nominating fights.
Twelve states from Alaska to Massachusetts will hold caucuses and primaries that day, awarding a big chunk of the delegates needed to secure the two major party nominations.
The balloting marks a fundamental shift, away from the close-quarters campaigning in states like Iowa and New Hampshire and the drive for momentum that came with winning or, for the second- and third-place finishers, beating expectations.
From here out, the race is about cold, hard mathematics and piling up convention delegates.
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump, who start out ahead after winning three of four opening contests, seem likely to expand their lead in the delegate count Tuesday, or Super Tuesday as it has come to be known. The question is whether their margins prove insurmountable.
“If Clinton stretches out to a 100-delegate lead, it will be tough … to catch up,†said Josh Putnam, a University of Georgia expert on the nominating process. “On the Republican side, there is a little more leeway. But a lot of chips have to fall in line for anyone to be able to overcome Trump at this point.â€
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Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks to the media during a campaign event on March 1, 2016, in Palm Beach, Florida, following “Super Tuesday†poll results.
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Hillary Clinton speaks at a rally on Super Tuesday in Miami on March 1, 2016.
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Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie in the background, speaks at a Super Tuesday event in Palm Beach, Fla., on March 1, 2016,
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Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton greets supporters at her Super Tuesday election night rally in Miami on March 1, 2016.
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Republican presidential candidate, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, waves as he arrives for his election night watch party on March 1, 2016, in Stafford, Texas. At left is Heidi Cruz, his daughters and Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick.
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Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders, his wife Jane, son Levi Sanders and others arrive to cheers during a primary night rally in Essex Junction, Vt., on March 1, 2016.
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Hillary Clinton speaks at a campaign rally in Miami, Florida, on March 1, 2016.
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Florida Sen.Marco Rubio arrives at his Super Tuesday primary election night rally at Tropical Park in Miami on March 1, 2016.
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Republican candidate Dr. Ben Carson speaks to supporters at his Super Tuesday election party on March 1, 2016 in Baltimore, Maryland.
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Republican presidential candidate Ohio Gov. John Kasich greets supporters following a fundraising dinner in Jackson, Miss., on March 1, 2016.
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Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign stop at the Signature Flight Hangar at Port-Columbus International Airport, on March 1, 2016, in Columbus, Ohio.
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A man looks for voting information before he casts his ballot in Alabama’s primary March 1, 2016, at a polling site in Birmingham.
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Republican presidential candidate Sen. Marco Rubio greets supporters during a campaign appearance in Andover, Minn., on March 1, 2016.
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Debbie Dooley, with the Atlanta Tea Party, rubs the golden head of a Donald Trump statue “for good luck†during a Trump watch party at the Corey Center in Atlanta on March 1, 2016.
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Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton greets patrons at City Center World Market on March 1, 2016, in Minneapolis. Clinton is campaigning in Minnesota as Super Tuesday voting takes place in 12 states.
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Debra Danburg makes phone calls in support of Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton from Clinton’s campaign headquarters in Austin, Texas on Tuesday, March 1, 2016.
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Steve Amos stands with his sons Cy, from left, and Leon, 5, as Amos waits in line to vote during the primary election March 1, 2016, in Atlanta.
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Poll manager Adrienne Dowling looks after Jane Major’s terrier mix Abby while Major casts her ballot at Mary Lin Elementary School during primary voting in Atlanta on March 1, 2016.
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A voter casts a ballot in Georgia’s primary election at a polling site in a high school gymnasium on March 1, 2016, in Atlanta.
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A voter casts a ballot in Georgia’s primary election under the hole of a slide pole at a polling site in a firehouse on March 1, 2016, in Atlanta.
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A voter leaves a polling station in Boston for Massachusetts’ primary election March 1, 2016.
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Virginia residents wait in line in the predawn hours to vote in the primary at Hunter House in Vienna on March 1, 2016.
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Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders waves as he leaves a news conference after voting in the Vermont primary at the Robert Miller Community and Recreation Center in Burlington on March 1, 2016.
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Patricia Stone checks people in during voting for the Vermont primary at the Robert Miller Community and Recreation Center in Burlington on March 1, 2016.
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People wait in line to vote in the Virginia primary in a fire station in Arlington on March 1, 2016.
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Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton holds a campaign rally at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va., on Feb. 29, 2016.
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Maree Miller, of Cairo, Ga., reacts to Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump as he speaks to supporters at Valdosta State University on Feb. 29, 2016, in Valdosta, Ga.
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Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont speaks to supporters at the Minneapolis Convention Center on Feb. 29, 2016, in Minnesota.
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Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders raises his fist during a campaign rally at Milton High School in Milton, Mass., on Feb. 29, 2016.
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Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders greets supporters during a campaign rally at Milton High School in Milton, Mass., on Feb. 29, 2016.
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Protesters are escorted out of a rally for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump at Radford University in Radford, Va., on Feb. 29, 2016.
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Photojournalist Christopher Morris is arrested by police during a rally of Republican presidential candidate, Donald Trump, at Radford University in Radford, Va., on Feb. 29, 2016.
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Supporters of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump strive to get an autograph during a rally Feb. 29, 2016, at Radford University in Radford, Va.
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Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump gestures during a rally at Radford University in Radford, Va., on Feb. 29, 2016.
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Donald Trump, a Republican presidential candidate, gets close for a selfie with a supporter Feb. 29, 2016, during a rally at Radford University in Radford, Va.
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Marco Rubio, a Republican presidential candidate and U.S. Senator from Florida, participates in a campaign event Feb. 29, 2016, in Atlanta.
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Marco Rubio, Republican presidential candidate and U.S. Senator from Florida, participates in a campaign event Feb. 29, 2016, in Atlanta.
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An attendee waves American and Israeli flags while Rick Perry, former governor of Texas, speaks at a presidential campaign rally for Repulican candidate Ted Cruz on Feb. 29, 2016, in Dallas.
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U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, left, and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley participate in a Republican presidential campaign event for Rubio on Feb. 29, 2016, in Atlanta.
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Republican presidential candidate Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., is followed by Sen. Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn., during a campaign stop Feb. 29, 2016, in Knoxville, Tenn.
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Republican presidential candidate Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., has a selfie taken with a supporter after speaking during a campaign stop Feb. 29, 2016, in Knoxville, Tenn.
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John Baca, of Atlanta, carries an American flag through the crowd while waiting for a campaign event to begin for Republican presidential candidate Sen. Marco Rubio on Feb. 29, 2016, at the InterContinental Hotel in Atlanta.
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Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton greets supporters with U.S. Rep Richard Neal, D-Mass., during a rally at the Lyman & Merrie Wood Museum of Springfield History on Feb. 29, 2016, in Springfield, Mass. Clinton is campaigning in Massachusetts and Virginia ahead of Super Tuesday.
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Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks at a campaign event Feb. 29, 2016, in Springfield, Mass.
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Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks during a rally at the Lyman & Merrie Wood Museum of Springfield History on Feb. 29, 2016, in Springfield, Mass.
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Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, accompanied by Rep. Richard Neal, D-Mass., speaks during a campaign stop Feb. 29, 2016, in Springfield, Mass.
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Ted Cruz, Republican presidential candidate and U.S. Senator from Texas, greets Texas Gov. Greg Abbott after Abbott introduced Cruz and his wife, Heidi Cruz, during at campaign rally Feb. 29, 2016, at the Gilley’s Dallas.
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U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, poses for a photo with Amanda Reeves and her 7-month-old son Ty Reeves after a presidential campaign rally Feb. 29, 2016, at the Gilley’s Dallas.
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Ted Cruz, a U.S. Senator from Texas and Republican presidential candidate, speaks at a campaign rally Feb. 29, 2016, in Dallas one day before the Super Tuesday primaries.
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John Kasich, governor of Ohio and Republican presidential candidate, speaks during a town hall meeting Feb. 29, 2016, at Castleton University in Castleton, Vt.
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Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz holds a rally at Gilley’s Dallas on Feb. 29, 2016.
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Republican presidential candidate Sen. Ted Cruz speaks at a rally Feb. 29, 2016, in Dallas.
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Kristi Lisenbee, of Keller, Texas, hoists a sign while entering the building as Republican presidential candidate Sen. Ted Cruz holds a rally Feb. 29, 2016, at Gilley’s Dallas the day before Super Tuesday.
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John Kasich, left, a Republican presidential candidate and Ohio governor, arrives for a town hall meeting Feb. 29, 2016, in the auditorium at Castleton University in Castleton, Vt.
(Jim Cole / AP) That is not say the presidential contests will end any time soon.
Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Clinton’s sole challenger, has signaled his intention to stay in the race through California’s June 7 primary.
Clinton and Sanders are not that far apart in pledged delegates. But Clinton enjoys a massive advantage among “super delegates,†party leaders and other elected officials who can support whomever they choose.
To catch up, much less overtake Clinton in delegates, Sanders will have to perform far better than he has in every state save New Hampshire, which he won handily.
That could be difficult. Seven of the states voting Tuesday are in the South, where, unlike New Hampshire, black voters make up a significant part of the Democratic electorate. African Americans have been among Clinton’s most loyal constituents; in her landslide victory Saturday in South Carolina, she won nearly 9 in 10 black votes.
“We got decimated,†Sanders acknowledged Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press.â€
Sanders will also be hampered by the way Democrats award their delegates. Even a candidate who loses a state can win a generous share.
That system undercut Clinton when she ran for president in 2008; she won several big states against then-Sen. Barack Obama but was never able to overcome the delegate lead he built early on.
“Under the proportional system it’s very hard for someone to close even a small gap,†said Putnam, whose website, frontloading.blogspot.com, charts the nominating contest.
The rules on the Republican side are different; some of the delegates are awarded on a winner-take-all basis. But the climb is no less steep for rivals trying to push past Trump.
On Sunday, the GOP race descended into a new round of insults. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas made unsubstantiated claims that Trump may have Mafia ties. Trump disparaged “Little Marco†Rubio as a lightweight. Sen. Rubio, of Florida, called Trump unelectable after he failed to repudiate the endorsement of former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke.
The candidate with perhaps the most at stake Tuesday is Cruz, the winner of the Iowa caucuses and the only candidate to beat Trump in a presidential contest. He is favored to carry his home state, though he may not get all of its 155 delegates, which are allotted proportionally.
Cruz has focused his campaign on winning the support of evangelical Christians and the most ideologically conservative voters, and Super Tuesday, with its Southern flavor, was supposed to be his breakout moment. The region is the most religious and conservative in the country.
Surprisingly, though, it is the irreligious Trump who has done best among evangelical voters in carrying New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada, and he leads most polls ahead of Tuesday. A poor showing could in effect end Cruz’s campaign.
Trump’s other main rivals, Rubio and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, finished second in South Carolina and New Hampshire, respectively. They have every incentive to hang on until their home states vote March 15 in big winner-take-all primaries.
One or the other could make up considerable ground if he starts winning March 8 in Michigan, in Florida and Ohio the following week and after that in big states such as Wisconsin, New Jersey and California.
But neither Rubio nor Kasich can afford a Super Tuesday shutout. The fifth candidate in the race, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, has not come close to winning any contest and that is unlikely to change Tuesday.
In 2012, former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania finished a surprising first in Iowa and strongly challenged the front-running Mitt Romney until the former Massachusetts governor and eventual GOP nominee began pulling away on Super Tuesday.
“You need to have the news networks put up your face and declare you a winner somewhere,†said John Brabender, who was Santorum’s chief strategist in 2012 and remains neutral in this year’s race.
It may not make a huge difference in the delegate count, he said, but it’s important to claim some measure of victory.
“Perceptions,†he said, “matter.â€
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Twitter: @markzbarabak
