Sen. Barbara Boxer's impending retirement to set off a scramble

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Sen. Barbara Boxer gives a summary statement at the conclusion of the Orange County Financial Crisis Fact-Finding Session at the Anaheim City Council Chambers, Dec. 15, 1994. (Hall, Kari Rene / Los Angeles Times)

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President Clinton shakes the hand of San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown before speaking at the Presidio of San Francisco with Sen. Barbara Boxer, second from right, and Sen. Dianne Feinstein June 9, 1996. (Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)

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Barbara Boxer acknowledges her supporters in San Francisco on Tuesday, Nov. 4, 1992, after claiming victory in her race against Republican challenger Bruce Herschensohn. (Slava J. Veder / Associated Press)

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Standing on what she jokingly refers to as “Boxer’s box,” Barbara Boxer gives a speech in San Bernardino in 1994. (Greg Gibson / Associated Press)

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California Sens. Barbara Boxer, second from left, and Dianne Feinstein, center, with Illinois Sen. Carol Moseley-Braun, right, and Washington state Sen. Patty Murray, wave at the Democratic National Convention Aug. 28, 1996. (Gary Friedman / Los Angeles Times)

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Sen. Barbara Boxer gets help putting on her labor apron from her husband Stewart Boxer during an annual Labor Day Breakfast and Festival, Sept. 7, 1998. (Rick Meyer / Los Angeles Times)

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Barbara Boxer with President Clinton at a fundraiser in 1998. (Wilfredo Lee / Associated Press)

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Sen. Barbara Boxer during a meeting she had with residents in Chatsworth to discuss the ongoing cleanup of the Rocketdyne facility, Aug 8, 2002. (George Wilhelm / Los Angeles Times)

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Sen. Barbara Boxer holds a press conference in Oxnard to promote the community policing programs of the Oxnard Police Department at Brekke Elementary School, Oct. 18, 2003. (Bryan Chan / Los Angeles Times)

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Sen, Barbara Boxer during a campaign rally that kicked off her reelection campaign in Los Angeles March 16, 2004. (Ricardo DeAratanha / Los Angeles Times)

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Sen. Barbara Boxer holds a news conference Jan. 24, 2006, in the council chambers at Burbank City Hall to announce that she was not supporting the nomination of Judge Samuel Alito to the U.S. Supreme Court. (Gary Friedman / Los Angeles Times)

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Sen. Barbara Boxer acknowledges the cheers of the crowd at the Moving America Forward Rally on the USC campus on Oct. 21, 2010. (Genaro Molina / Los Angeles Times)

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Sen. Barbara Boxer answers questions from reporters during a campaign stop at Patys Restaurant in Toluca Lake on the day before election day Nov 1, 2010. (Rick Loomis / Los Angeles Times)

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On her final day of campaigning, Barbara Boxer works up the crowd at a get-out-the-vote rally on the steps of the L.A. Public Library Nov. 1, 2010. (Mark Boster / Los Angeles Times)

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Sen. Barbara Boxer with supporters after speaking at the Democratic Party election night celebration at the Renaissance Hollywood Hotel, Nov. 2, 2010. (Jay L. Clendenin / Los Angeles Times)

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Sen. Barbara Boxer with Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa at the 6th Street Bridge in downtown Los Angeles to call on Congress to pass legislation that will fix deficient roads and bridges and fund new transportation infrastructure projects, on October 27, 2011. (Al Seib / Los Angeles Times)

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Sen. Barbara Boxer, center, during a campaign stop for Los Angeles mayoral candidate Wendy Greuel, right, with Rep. Janice Hahn during a roundtable of female leaders at The Feminist Majority in Beverly Hills on April 4, 2013. (Gary Friedman / Los Angeles Times)

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Sen. Barbara Boxer speaks at the unveiling of the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan at the AES mountain view wind farm in the San Gorgonio Pass in Palm Springs Tuesday, Sept. 23, 2014. (Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)

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Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) looks on during a hearing on sexual assaults in the military March 13, 2013, in Washington. (Win McNamee / Getty Images)

By Seema Mehta

and Michael Finnegan

Jan. 8, 2015 5:42 PM PT

Sen. Barbara Boxer’s announcement Thursday that she will not seek reelection put an end to years of frustration on the part of a younger generation of California politicians who can now start elbowing their way upward in the state’s first wide-open U.S. Senate race since 1992.

More than a dozen names quickly surfaced as potential contenders for Boxer’s seat in the 2016 election, chief among them state Atty. Gen. Kamala D. Harris and Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom.

California’s strongly Democratic tilt makes it likely that the party will hold the seat, but not without a fierce contest among those whose Senate ambitions have long been thwarted by Boxer and fellow Democratic incumbent Dianne Feinstein.

“There’s a lot of pent-up demand among Democratic officeholders for opportunities to advance their careers,” said Parke Skelton, a Democratic strategist. “This is like a keystone coming out of the bridge.”

Boxer, 74, and Feinstein, 81, captured California’s Senate seats in the 1992 “year of the woman” election.

While speculation focused most on Harris, 50, and Newsom, 47, neither offered immediate clues to their intentions. Both are also weighing a potential 2018 campaign to succeed Gov. Jerry Brown.

With the exception of a few would-be candidates who took themselves out of the running — such as Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti — Thursday was a day to publicly celebrate Boxer and to privately begin a furious effort to analyze the possibilities.

One key question was who could come up with the tens of millions of dollars needed to run a viable Senate campaign in a state as vast as California. Strict federal fundraising limits make it hard even for big-name politicians to build a large war chest in less than two years.

That gives at least some edge to wealthy contenders who can dip into personal fortunes. Former state Controller Steve Westly, a Democrat, has been itching to return to elected office after losing a 2006 governor’s race in which he spent millions of dollars he earned as an early EBay executive.

Tom Steyer, the Bay Area hedge fund billionaire who has poured tens of millions of dollars into Democratic campaigns as part of his fight against global warming, is also weighing a Senate run. As a rookie candidate, he would face the danger of stumbling — at great personal expense — the way wealthy but losing gubernatorial contenders Meg Whitman did in 2010 and Al Checchi did in 1998.

Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa is often mentioned as a potential Senate candidate. But like Newsom, a former San Francisco mayor, he has openly stated his preference for an executive job, the one Brown will hold for the next four years.

For Republicans, Boxer’s seat would be one of the toughest in the nation to win, particularly because it coincides with the Democratic advantage of high voter turnout in a presidential election.

Banker Neel Kashkari, Brown’s GOP challenger in November, and two Republican mayors, Kevin Faulconer of San Diego and Ashley Swearengin of Fresno, signaled Thursday that they were not inclined to run.

And the state’s most powerful Republican, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy of Bakersfield, is unlikely to leave his leadership post for an effort to become California’s junior senator.

But former state Republican Chairman Duf Sundheim, a Bay Area court mediator, said he was “seriously exploring the possibility of running.”

State GOP Chairman Jim Brulte recalled the party’s failure to unseat Boxer and Feinstein in one election after another. “But this opens the door of opportunity,” he said. “We will see if we can take advantage of it.”

Still, there is a remote chance that Republicans could benefit from California’s new “top two” primary system. Candidates who finish first and second in the primary — regardless of party — compete in a November runoff. The nightmare scenario for Democrats would be to have so many candidates on the ballot that they splinter the primary vote and two Republicans wind up facing off in November.

“You can’t rule that out,” said political scientist Bruce Cain of Stanford University.

But it was also possible — perhaps more probable — that two Democrats could make their way to the general election, prompting the sort of internal bloodletting that marked some congressional contests last year.

Many of those eyeing Boxer’s job are among the 53 Californians in the U.S. House of Representatives. Leading names circulating on Capitol Hill include Reps. Xavier Becerra (D-Los Angeles), Jackie Speier (D-Hillsborough), John Garamendi (D-Walnut Grove) and Adam Schiff (D-Burbank).

In Sacramento, statewide elected officials were pondering the attraction of representing the nation’s most populous state in the Senate. For some Democrats, such as newly elected Secretary of State Alex Padilla and state Treasurer John Chiang, an inevitable question was how it might appear to be seen coveting a new post just days after taking office.

“It’s pretty hard for those folks on Monday to say, ‘I’m so proud to have been sworn in as such and such,’ and on Thursday to say, ‘Now I’m running for Senate,’” said Roy Behr, a former Boxer campaign advisor. “This race may take a while to take shape because of that.”

But after Boxer, Feinstein and Brown, who is 76, stood in the way for so long, the sudden opening of one of the state’s top jobs was nothing if not tantalizing. Feinstein has not yet said whether she plans to seek reelection in 2018, but Brown is barred by term limits from seeking another term.

“There’s obviously a whole generation of younger, very talented politicians waiting to make their mark,” said Democratic pollster Paul Maslin. “And this is their first opportunity to do it.”

Boxer said she felt no obligation to step aside for the many younger California politicians eagerly awaiting a chance of upward mobility.

“Am I stepping aside to hand the torch to a new generation? No, I am not,” Boxer said in a phone call with reporters. “I don’t believe in ageism.”

[email protected]

Times staff writers Mark Z. Barabak, Evan Halper, Lisa Mascaro, Seema Mehta and Michael A. Memoli contributed to this report. Barabak reported from San Francisco, Mehta from Los Angeles, and Halper, Mascaro and Memoli from Washington.

Analysis: Sen. Barbara Boxer’s impending retirement to set off a scramble

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