Poll Analysis: National Politics in California

     Vice President Al Gore does better in hypothetical matchups with Texas Governor George W. Bush and former head of the Red Cross Elizabeth Dole in California than he does in the nation.The 2000 presidential election season is in full swing. Interestingly enough, only a few of the Republican candidates have thrown their proverbial hat in the ring (Steve Forbes, Dan Quayle, Lamar Alexander, Pat Buchanan) while the others have formed or are forming exploratory committees. And, there have been a myriad of polling data nationally and in many states to tell us that Governor George W. Bush of Texas is exceedingly popular within his own Republican ranks and with Americans in general. Bush formed an exploratory committee but announced in Iowa (this past weekend) that he is definitely running for president. The polls have been consistent over the last few months and give Governor Bush a handsome lead over the presumptive Democratic challenger Vice President Al Gore (who announced today).
     All candidates head west when running for president. And why not? California is an important state with 54 electoral votes and about 10% of the delegate count. Plus candidates rely on snagging many large contributions from donors living here. Gore so far has spent more than 50 days in California, Bradley, around 11 days and is making a week long swing into the state this week. Republican candidates are making their mark as well.

     Republican and Democratic Primary Matchups and Presidential Horserace
     Gore as a sitting vice president has problems that are inherent in running for president--only two vice presidents have been elected president in their own right. He has to get out from under a two-term sitting president and he has to be able to show his leadership ability and his vision for the country‚s future. These are large challenges. Gore is trailing behind Bush in most surveys, but according to a new Los Angeles Times poll, Gore has some good news and some bad news in California. The good news is that after trailing Bush consistently all through the spring, he is in a statistical tie with Bush and Elizabeth Dole, former head of the Red Cross and wife of former Senator Bob Dole, in hypothetical matchups. Forty-nine percent of registered voters say they would vote for Bush if the election were being held today, while Gore would get 44%. And in a horserace against Dole, Gore would get 46% and Dole would receive 44%.
     Gore vs. Bush: Breaking out the vote demographically, nearly half (46%) of independents say they will vote for Bush, while 32% would vote for Gore. Moderates are somewhat divided with 47% voting for Gore and 42% for Bush. There is a slight gender gap, with women virtually dividing their vote (45% Gore, 46% Bush) and men opting for Bush (52% to 43% for Gore). A majority of whites are for Bush, while majorities of blacks and Latinos are for Gore. However, 37% of the Latino voters say they will vote for Bush, which is larger than the 18% Bob Dole got in the 1996 presidential election in California and the 23% former Governor Wilson received in the 1994 gubernatorial election (when he supported Proposition 187, the anti-immigrant initiative). However, Bush is getting as many Latinos as Wilson received in his 1990 campaign for governor (35%) when he ran as a more compassionate conservative. The perception that Bush is Latino friendly (and not a Wilson Republican) and that he has done well among Latinos in Texas will help him here in California. The more affluent voters are voting for Bush, while the less affluent are voting for Gore. Twenty-four percent of Democratic men and 20% of Democratic women say they will vote for Bush, while only 8% of GOP men and 13% of GOP women say they will vote for Gore. Nearly 3 in 10 moderate Democrats say they will vote for Bush, while a fifth of moderate Republicans say they will vote for Gore. Los Angeles County and the Bay Area voters are decidedly for Gore, while voters in the rest of Southern California, Central Valley and the rest of Northern California would vote for Bush.
     Former Senator Bill Bradley of New Jersey is the Democratic challenger to Gore and in a head-to-head matchup with Bush, Bush ekes out a win by 48% to 40%. Bradley is in a statistical tie with Dole--44% for Bradley and 42% for Dole.
     Bradley vs. Bush: As with the GoreˆBush horserace, nearly half of the independents would vote for Bush. However moderates are divided between these two candidates (42% for Bradley and 41% for Bush). Slightly more men, but women too, would vote for Bush (49% to 39% for Bradley among male voters and 46% Bush to 41% Bradley among female voters). Latinos are divided--45% for Bush and 41% for Bradley. Bradley does a little better than Gore among the more affluent ($60K or more), who are divided in their vote--48% for Bush and 44% for Bradley. He too beats Bush in Los Angeles County and the Bay Area, while Bush beats Bradley in the same regions he beats Gore--rest of Southern California, Central Valley and rest of Northern California.
     In the hypothetical Republican primary matchup, Bush easily triumphs over the pack of Republican hopefuls receiving 50% of the registered Republican vote, followed by Dole at 13%. The remaining candidates are in low single digits. In the Democratic primary matchup, Gore handily beats Bradley by more than 2 to 1 (56% to 26%).
     Gore is well-liked in the state and so is President Clinton. Clinton has always been a popular president in this state. Californians still believe the president is doing a good job (60%), while 34% disapprove. It is, however, much lower than a year ago in April Œ98, when his job approval rating was at 72%--the highest ever recorded by the Times Poll in the state (that was during the impeachment frenzy when Clinton‚s ratings were extremely high). He is popular among men and women alike and liked overwhelmingly among minorities. Half of all whites give him a positive job approval, while 44% give him a negative rating. If you approve of Clinton, two-thirds say they will vote for Gore and roughly a quarter for Bush. If you disapprove of Clinton, more than 4 out of 5 voters say they will vote for Bush and about one in eight for Gore. More than half of the voters (53%) have a favorable impression of Gore, while 38% have an unfavorable impression and 9% haven‚t heard enough or undecided. His constituency likes him--about three-quarters each of registered Democrats and self-described liberals, 63% of self-described moderates all have a favorable impression of him. Nearly half of independents have a positive rating of him, compared to 39% negative. Female voters like him slightly more than male voters (54%ˆ35% for women, 52%ˆ40% for men).
     Bush‚s favorable rating is along the same lines as Gore‚s. Fifty-five percent of registered voters have a favorable impression of the Texas governor, 19% unfavorable. Not surprising, more voters are unaware of Bush than Gore and that would lead to a smaller unfavorable rating for Bush. A quarter of voters say they haven‚t heard enough about him or are undecided. Among white voters, 49% give Gore a positive rating, 43% a negative rating. White voters seem to like Bush more than Gore--59% of white voters give Bush a positive rating and 20% give him a negative rating (21% are unaware of him or undecided). Gore is well liked among Latinos voters. Almost two-thirds of Latino voters give Gore a favorable rating, 24% unfavorable and 12% undecided. Bush does not seem to be as well known among Latino voters. Almost two out of five Latino voters say they haven‚t heard enough about him or are undecided. However, of those who do know him, nearly half give Bush a favorable rating and 13% an unfavorable rating.
     Bradley is hardly known in this state. Sixty-one percent of the voters say they are not aware of him or are undecided. But of those who do know him, 33% give him a favorable impression and only 6% give him an unfavorable rating. Even 58% of registered Democrats have no idea who the former New Jersey senator is. More men have heard of the former N.Y. Knicks basketball player than women. About half (52%) of the men haven‚t heard about Bradley, compared to 68% for women. Forty percent of male voters have a favorable impression and 8% have an unfavorable opinion. Twenty-seven percent of women voters have a favorable opinion of the former senator, while 5% give him negative marks.
     Dole is somewhat better known than Bradley, but almost 3 in 10 voters say they don‚t know enough about her to form an opinion or are undecided. But she is well liked by just about everyone. Fifty-five percent of voters have a favorable impression of her, while 18% give her a negative rating. Even among Democrats she fares well (45% favorable, 25% unfavorable, 30% haven‚t heard/undecided). Women and men voters give her basically the same positive ratings (52% for men and 57% for women).
     As I said previously, Gore has to get out of his vice presidential shadows and create his own persona. This is illustrated when voters were asked if Gore has enough strong leadership ability to be president of the United States. The majority of voters (53%) do not believe he has this attribute. About a third (34%) of voters say he does. This is in contrast to their opinions about Bush where a plurality believe the Texas governor has this attribute. Forty-five percent of the voters believe Bush has leadership ability, while 30% say he does not.
     Possibly because of the Clinton/Monica Lewinsky impeachment scandal, when voters were asked what they would be looking for most in a candidate for president of the United States next year, a large plurality (42%) say honesty, followed by a strong leader (28%), cares about people like me (17%) and agrees with me on the issues (14%). If the voters mentioned honesty as the attribute they are looking for most in a candidate, Bush and Dole are the clear winners (against both Democrats). If the voters mentioned strong leader, Bush and Gore are statistically tied, but Gore beats Dole. Bush barely beats Bradley on this attribute, but Dole and Bradley are virtually tied at 42% each. Both Democrats clearly beat both Republicans for the attribute, cares about people like me. And the mention, agrees with me on the issues--Gore beats Bush and Dole, while Bradley and Bush are statistically tied in this category, and Bradley beats Dole.
     Gore‚s association with the Clinton administration and its troubles this past year, might be marginally hurtful for the vice president. About a quarter (23%) say it would make them less likely to vote for the vice president because of the problems associated with the Clinton administration, 4% more likely. However, an overwhelming 71% say it would make no difference one way or the other. And it‚s probably the voter groups who would not vote for him anyway. For instance, 44% of registered Republicans, 40% of self-described conservatives and 33% of voters with household incomes of $60K or more, say they would be less likely to vote for him because of his association with the president.

     Same Day Registration
     In order to vote in California, one must be registered to vote 29 days before an election. However, there is legislation pending in the state legislature to allow residents to register to vote on election day at their polling place. Supporters of this measure say it would make voting more convenient and lead to a larger turnout. Opponents say that allowing people to register at the last minute could open the door to fraud. It could also lead to an unprepared electorate who have not taken the time to learn about the issues. When California citizens were asked how they would like this idea, they gave a resounding „NO.‰ More than half of all respondents (53%) say they „strongly‰ oppose this idea, while another 13% are somewhat opposed to it (for a combined 66% opposed to same day voting and registration). No demographic group supported this idea.When non-registered voters were asked if they were allowed to register and vote on the same day at their polling place how likely is it that they would vote. Thirty-five percent say that would make them very likely to vote, 23% somewhat likely (for a combined 58% who say likely to vote), 11% somewhat unlikely and 25% very unlikely (for a combined 36% unlikely to vote). More women say they would be more likely to vote (62%) than men (54%) if this were to occur.


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How the Poll Was Conducted

     The Times Poll contacted 1,602 adults statewide, including 1,179 registered voters, by telephone June 10 through June 14. Of the registered voters, 540 are registered Democrats and 391 are registered Republicans. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, region and voter registration. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample and for registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for Democrats it is 4 points and for Republicans it is 5 points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. The survey was conducted in English and Spanish.