Poll Analysis: Bush Still Leads, But the Race Has Tightened

     With just over three months until the American people elect their first president of the new millennium, George W. Bush is maintaining a narrow five point lead over Al Gore. He has managed to solidify his support among Republicans, who are overwhelmingly Bush supporters, and also managed to squeak by with the independent vote, maintaining a narrow six point lead among this group.
     These days should be Bush‚s apex to date in the election cycle: Eyes are focused on his recent running mate selection and the Republican convention is about to begin. Basking in this limelight, Bush continues to enjoy leads among both men and women, as well as to garner support from more than one in 10 self-identified Democrats.However, even during this shining time for Bush˜and Gore will have his in two weeks at the Democratic convention˜some of Bush‚s strongholds have slipped, such as his popularity with self-identified moderates as well as his previous strength among younger voters.
     Additionally, with nearly half (45%) acknowledging that they have not been following this year‚s election, and with over a quarter of registered voters saying that they would consider voting for someone else come November, the race is really just beginning.

     The Horserace
     According to the latest poll conducted by the Los Angeles Times July 27ˆ29, Bush leads Gore by five points among all registered voters:
      44% of registered voters said they are planning to vote for Bush come November
      39% are planning on voting for Gore
     Ralph Nader, the Green party candidate, received 5% of the vote, and Pat Buchanan, the likely Reform party candidate got 2% of the vote. Nine percent of registered voters were undecided at the time the poll was conducted.
     Bush grows this five point lead to nine points among likely voters, with 51% of this group saying they plan to vote for Bush, and 42% planning on voting for Gore.
     However, equal numbers of Bush and Gore voters (27%) said they would still consider voting for someone else come November.
     Nine out of 10 self-identified Republican voters are planning to vote for Bush, and just 78% of self-identified Democrats plan to giving Gore their vote, a trend Bush has enjoyed over the months since he became his party‚s likely nominee.
     However, there are some warning signs for Bush. While just over one in 10 self-identified Democratic voters say they will vote for Bush in November (11%) and only 5% of self-identified Republicans plan to vote for Gore, these numbers are good news for Gore, who was losing nearly a fifth of Democrats to Bush in the Times‚ previous poll, conducted at the end of June.
     Gore has also managed to grow his lead among moderate voters, 48% of whom plan to vote for him (33% are backing Bush). In June, 49% of moderates were backing Gore, and 40% were supporting Bush.
     Similarly, at the end of June, 53% of independents said they planned on voting for Bush and just 32% said they were backing Gore. In the latest poll, this gap significantly narrows to a six point difference, with 41% of independents giving the nod to Bush and 35% supporting Gore.
     Bush‚s lead has also crumbled with men and with the youngest and least-educated segments of the voting population.
     While Bush still leads among men, he has seen this lead drop from 16 points in June to just five points in the Times‚ latest poll. And while Bush was leading among those with a high school or less education and among those 18ˆ29 years of age just a month ago, Gore now edges out Bush among these two groups.
     Women, a heavily coveted group in any recent election, continue to lean toward Bush (44% to Gore‚s 39%), despite playing a critical role in the victory of the Clinton/Gore team in both 1992 and 1996.
     Married women are even more strongly in favor of Bush, with 48% supporting him (35% back Gore). Conversely, single women give Gore a 15 point lead (49% to Bush‚s 34%).
     The vice presidential selection Bush‚s drop in support among independents and moderates could be correlated with his selection of Dick Cheney as his vice presidential running mate.
     Cheney has high name recognition for this early a time (two days after his selection as Bush‚s running mate, just 30% said they did not know who Cheney was), and high levels of favorability (53%). However, while more than three-fifths say they are confident that Cheney is qualified to step in as president, a full third of all registered voters perceive him to be more conservative than they are.
     Nearly three in 10 moderates say Cheney is more conservative than they are, and even 21% of self-identified conservatives think Cheney is more conservative than they are (61% of liberals believe Cheney to be more conservative than they are).
     Congruously, 36% of independents say Cheney is more conservative than they are. Just under one in five Republicans feel this way, as do 46% of Democrats.
     While it is too early to tell whether this perception of conservatism will hurt the Bush/ Cheney ticket, it is likely to play at least some role in the election, particularly as Gore narrows his decision for his own running mate.
     Gore might also do well to choose a running mate from the Midwest, where Bush maintains only a marginal lead, and where Bush‚s lead has dropped from 10 points to a statistically insignificant three points in the past month.

     Issues and Attributes
     Most voters feel the economy is strong, and feel confident in their own personal finances. At the same time, 42% say that they believe the country is headed off on the wrong track (49% believe things in the country are going in the right direction).
     This sentiment represents an upturn from the last poll conducted by the Los Angeles Times, which painted a bleaker outlook. In June of this year, 46% of registered voters felt the country was off on the wrong track (43% said right direction).
     Not surprisingly, those who feel the country is headed in the right direction site the economy as the reason. Over a quarter of those who feel the country is off on the wrong track say immorality is the explanation. Voters articulated no other issue as overwhelmingly; the next highest answer was "corrupt politicians‰ at 9%.
     Correspondingly, registered voters say that "shares my moral values‰ applies more to Bush than to Gore by 10 points, and give Bush a six point lead on "has the honesty and integrity for the job.‰ Voters also find Bush far more personally likeable than Gore (48% to 30%) and give Bush a slight edge in their perception of whether "cares about people like me‰ applies more to him or to Gore.
     Only with "has the experience for the job‰ does Gore get more voters saying this attribute applies more to him than to Bush.
     In terms of issues they would like to hear addressed, voters cite education (22%), Social Security (15%), health care (14%) and the economy (12%).
     In good news for Gore, registered voters believe that he, and not Bush, would do a better job of handling the issue of health care (51% to Bush‚s 31%), Social Security (49% to Bush‚s 35%), and by lesser margins, the economy (43% to 39%) and education (statistically even at 42% to 41%).
     Confirming this sentiment is that when presented with Bush‚s plan for Social Security˜privatizing part and allowing voters to self-invest that portion˜and Gore‚s plan of using money from the budget surplus to fortify our current system˜registered voters overwhelmingly choose the Gore plan.Similarly, when told of each candidate‚s plan for the budget surplus, voters by nearly five to one support Gore‚s plan of using a small portion of the surplus for a tax cut and a large chunk to shoring up Social Security and Medicare over Bush‚s large tax cut proposal.
     Defense and the death penalty˜an area where presidents seldom have much authority (and an area where both candidates actually share the same position)˜are the two issues where voters see Bush doing a better job.Additionally, most voters approve of the death penalty (66%). Of the 28% of who disapprove, 48% say that there are certain crimes for which they would favor the death penalty (46% of those disapproving of the death penalty are opposed in all circumstances). At the same time, a whopping 83% believe that there have in fact been circumstances in which an innocent percent was executed.

     Third Party Candidates
     Two-thirds of voters support the argument that third party candidates make an election more exciting and provide more options to voters. Just over half (55%) agree that while third party candidates have the right to run, what they really end up doing is hurting the election by taking away votes from the far more viable major party candidates.
     At the same time, just over a third say that they would be likely to consider voting for a third party candidate themselves, and 54% would still vote for this third party candidate even if the election were close. Only a third of this group would not vote for a third party candidate if they knew that the election was close. Nader‚s and Buchanan‚s low levels of support buttress this finding.

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED
     The Times Poll contacted 1,058 registered voters nationwide, including 627 voters most likely to vote, by telephone July 27-29, 2000. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and region. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for likely voters it is 4 points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.