Heatmeter: Tracking critical success

Feverish speculation and punditry are all part of the fun of award season. But in an attempt to add a little science to the art of Oscar season score-keeping, we have developed a system that seeks to quantify the status of the race at various moments in time. Called the Heat Meter, it tracks the relative heat of talent, movies, even studios, through the season that culminates with the Oscar ceremony on Feb. 26.

Our movie team has assigned values to the top awards according to our assessment of their relative importance. The points will be fed into a database, allowing us to slice and dice the results and look at the race from various points of view.

The best way to accumulate heat is, of course, via the Oscars, with a nomination or a win worth more than a nomination or a win at any other award event. Contenders get more for a win than a nomination.

New York Film Critics Circle: 35 points for a win

Los Angeles Film Critics Assn.: 35 points for a win, 17.5 points for runners-up

Golden Globe nominations: 16 points for director, 10 points for best picture drama, 8 points for best picture comedy/musical

Wins: 80 points for director, 80 points for lead actors, 60 points for best picture drama, 40 points for best picture comedy/musical

Director Guild Awards nominations: 12 points

Producers Guild Awards nominations (best picture): 6 points

Screen Actors Guild Awards nominations: 12 points