‘Amazing Spider-Man 2’: Five box-office bets for the web-slinger

As the superhero-filled summer movie season kicks off, it’s clear that “The Amazing Spider-Man 2� is poised to have a big opening weekend. The question is just how big.

We can’t say for sure until Monday, but in the meantime, here’s a look at some box-office benchmarks for the Marc Webb-directed sequel, which once again stars Andrew Garfield as the wall-crawling hero Spider-Man and Emma Stone as his plucky girlfriend Gwen Stacy.

Just to spice things up, we’re presenting the numbers via a Vegas-style over/under format. (We’ll throw out a number, and you can formulate your own prediction whether the movie will beat it or fall short.)

Webbing up the weekend: With no other movies even opening in wide release, “The Amazing Spider-Man 2� is sure to dominate the weekend box office. According to people who have seen pre-release audience surveys, the movie is set to gross at least $95 million in the U.S. and Canada through Sunday.

To give some context, that would put it on par with another recent comic-book adaptation, “Captain America: The Winter Soldier,� which opened to precisely that amount the first weekend of April, good for the biggest debut of the year so far.

Over/under: $95 million.

We say: Over. Make room, Cap.

The Spidey showdown: How will “ASM 2� stack up against the previous four “Spider-Man� movies? A straight-up comparison is tricky: The first “Amazing Spider-Man,� for example, opened on a Tuesday (July 3, 2012), and took in $137 million over its first six days. The gross for its first actual weekend, though, was $62 million.

In the previous trilogy directed by Sam Raimi and starring Tobey Maguire, “Spider-Man 2� opened over a four-day Fourth of July weekend in 2004 and grossed $116 million; its three-day total was $88 million. “Spider-Man 3� opened to $151 million in 2007, and the original “Spider-Man� opened to $115 million in 2002.

Over/under: “ASM 2� tops “ASM 1� and “Spider Man-2’s� opening three-day weekends.

We say: Over (with an asterisk).

The wall-crawler’s cume: Looking past opening weekend, where might “ASM 2’s� total domestic gross wind up? Spidey will likely fall well short of the Caped Crusader (“The Dark Knight� made $533 million, “The Dark Knight Rises� $448 million) and the all-star team of “The Avengers� ($623 million).

Still, “ASM 2� should top “Thor: The Dark World� ($206 million) and could perhaps challenge “Man of Steel� ($291 million).

Oh the other hand, “ASM 2� will soon face competition from “Godzilla,� “X-Men: Days of Future Past� and “Maleficent,� and that’s just this month.

Over/under: $265 million.

We say: Under (they can’t all be overs).

My CinemaScore is tingling: Grades calculated by the Las Vegas-based market-research firm CinemaScore have become a shorthand for what mainstream moviegoers think of new releases. If “ASM 2� earns a strong CinemaScore -- say, a B+ or above -- it should bode well for the movie’s word-of-mouth prospects. (The first “Amazing Spider-Man� scored an A-.)

Over/under: B+

We say: Over, thanks largely to Garfield’s and Stone’s crowd-pleasing chemistry.

Big in Japan (and Argentina, and Italy …): It’s become standard practice for Hollywood tentpoles to begin rolling out overseas ahead of their U.S. releases, and “ASM 2� is no different. The movie has been out for two weeks in Britain, Israel, Uruguay and elsewhere, and for a week in places such as Japan and South Africa.

So far, “ASM 2� has racked up $155 million internationally, and that number is sure to rise as the movie continues its expansion. Each of the previous four “Spider-Man� movies has grossed more than $400 million in foreign receipts. How much will the latest installment make overseas when all is said and done?

Over/under: $500 million.

We say: Over. Spidey’s gone global.

What do you think? Let us know your over/under predictions in the comments below.

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Twitter: @ogettell