Analysis: â€˜Manchester by the Sea,’ ‘Fences’ and ‘Moonlight’ lead the Screen Actors Guild awards nominations

The last time a movie won the Academy Award for best picture without being nominated in the SAG Awards’ ensemble category came two decades ago when Mel Gibson’s “Braveheart� prevailed at the Oscars.

That’s the daunting statistic facing the current presumed Oscar front-runner “La La Land,� which was left out of the motion picture cast category when the SAG Awards announced its nominees Wednesday.

In choosing “Moonlight,� “Fences,� “Manchester by the Sea,� “Hidden Figures� and, surprisingly, the anarchic family saga “Captain Fantastic,� SAG voters went with true ensemble movies, films that worked because of significant contributions from a number of actors.

The romantic musical “La La Land,� on the other hand, is essentially a two-hander, focusing on the relationship between an aspiring actress and a jazz pianist, played, respectively by Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling.

Both “La La Land� leads earned SAG Awards nods. But the movie had only five single-card holders – actors whose names appear alone on screen during the credits, making them eligible to be considered as ensemble members. And two of those five – Rosemary DeWitt and Finn Wittrock – are barely in the movie. (Musician John Legend is the other “La La Land� cast member.)

Such paucity hasn’t stopped SAG Awards voters in the past from nominating small ensembles like “Million Dollar Baby,� “Beasts of No Nation� and “Boyhood.�

But since “La La Land� is really the Stone-and-Gosling show, I don’t think the SAG Awards snub significantly hurts its best picture chances -- though it does probably put more weight on Stone winning SAG’s lead actress category when the awards are handed out next month.

Approximately 75% of those annually feted by the guild’s voters wind up earning Oscar nominations. Last year, the film academy eschewed SAG Awards nominees Sarah Silverman, Helen Mirren and Johnny Depp in favor of Jennifer Lawrence, Charlotte Rampling and Matt Damon. Late-arriving movies are always at a disadvantage with SAG because studios often can’t ship DVD screeners to voters before balloting, a factor that hurt Martin Scorsese’s “Silence� this year.

About 2,500 randomly selected SAG-AFTRA members from across the United States make up each of the two nominating committees — one for film and one for television.

On the TV side, it’s remarkable to see SAG voters — typically a good year or two behind the times — rewarding genre dramas “Stranger Things� and “Westworld.� (Though they are still probably the only group believing that “The Big Bang Theory� and “Modern Family� are among the best television comedies.)

As the SAG Awards contest is closely watched because of its proximity to the Oscars, we’re going to focus, for now, on the movie categories. Here’s a look at who was — and wasn’t — nominated.

FILM ENSEMBLE

The nominees: “Captain Fantastic,� “Fences,� “Hidden Figures,� “Manchester by the Sea,� “Moonlight�

Surprise: “Captain Fantastic�

Snub: “La La Land�

Analysis: “Hidden Figures� is a perfect fit for this category, a period drama boasting a cast of appealing actors – including Taraji P. Henson, Octavia Spencer, Janelle Monae, Mahershala Ali, Kevin Costner and Kirsten Dunst. The crowd-pleaser about the black female mathematicians helping launch John Glenn into space isn’t a big favorite with critics, but its feel-good vibe might still make it a dark horse Oscar contender in a time when people could use a shot of inspiration.

LEAD ACTOR

The nominees: Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea�; Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge�; Ryan Gosling, “La La Land�; Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic�; Denzel Washington, “Fences�

Surprise: Mortensen

Snub: Joel Edgerton, “Loving�

Analysis: “Captain Fantastic� received a big boost from SAG Awards voters, scoring nominations for ensemble and its lead, Mortensen, who, earlier this week, scored a Globes nod too. Is Mortensen ahead of Tom Hanks (“Sully�) and Edgerton? Quite possibly. And Garfield’s nomination is yet another indication of the awards strength of Mel Gibson’s war drama “Hacksaw Ridge.�

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“Loving� actor Joel Edgerton explains why he believes Richard and Mildred’s story is not as widely known as other civil rights stories.

LEAD ACTRESS

The nominees: Amy Adams, “Arrival�; Emily Blunt, “The Girl on the Train�; Natalie Portman, “Jackie�; Emma Stone, “La La Land�; Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins�

Surprise: Blunt

Snubs: Isabelle Huppert, “Elle�; Ruth Negga, “Loving�; Annette Bening, “20th Century Women�

Analysis: I like Emily Blunt, who gave a committed performance in a terrible movie. But nominating her over the likes of Bening, Negga and Huppert is flat-out embarrassing, an example of SAG voters’ penchant for rewarding showy scenery-chewing over subtlety. In a year boasting such a bounty of strong lead turns by women (two more: Hailee Steinfeld in “The Edge of Seventeen� and Kate Beckinsale for “Love and Friendship�), this kind of strange selection stands out even more.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

The nominees: Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight�; Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water�; Hugh Grant, “Florence Foster Jenkins�; Lucas Hedges, “Manchester by the Sea�; Dev Patel, “Lion�

Surprise: None, really. Hedges qualifies as the closest thing, but he’s quite deserving for his turn as the troubled teen in “Manchester.�

Snub: Michael Shannon, “Nocturnal Animals�

Analysis: This slate solidifies the Oscar category that has been most in flux. I wouldn’t be surprised if all five go on to earn nominations.

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WATCH: Director Kenneth Lonergan talks about Michelle Williams’ performance in “Manchester By The Sea� with L.A. Times critic Justin Chang. Chang asks about Williams’ “fearless emotionalism� in a particularly wrenching scene with Casey Affleck. Lone

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The nominees: Viola Davis, “Fences�; Naomie Harris, “Moonlight�; Nicole Kidman, “Lion�; Octavia Spencer, “Hidden Figures�; Michelle Williams, “Manchester by the Sea�

Surprise: Spencer

Snub: Greta Gerwig, “20th Century Women�

Analysis: Gerwig’s omission, along with that of castmate Bening, might come down to a lack of awareness for Mike Mills’ densely layered domestic drama, which doesn’t open in theaters until Christmas. (A24 did send a screener.)

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UPDATES:

11:30 a.m.: This article was updated with analysis.

The article originally was published at 7:45 a.m.