Who’s in the box? Gambling odds on which ‘Arrow’ character buys the farm this week
"Arrow" has made a habit of bait-and-switch cliffhangers during its four-season run as the anchor of the CW's superhero slate.
Episode after episode has ended with Felicity in an archer's crosshairs or suffering from an acute case of bullet poisoning, Thea bleeding out from a sword wound, or in one case, Oliver Queen himself plummeting off a cliff, his body slack and definitely, definitely dead.
But Star City heroes are difficult to kill. Both Thea and Sara Lance managed to avoid their Game Over screens by way of Ra's al Ghul's Lazarus Pit, Felicity seems to deflect bullets thanks to the protective plot shielding, and Oliver Queen is simply a bad, bad man who has no time for puny stab wounds, blood clots or robot bees traipsing around his respiratory system.
When "Arrow" actually does deliver on a main character death, the show rarely forecasts it. But that's all set to change during Wednesday's episode, "Eleven Fifty-Nine," when the series finally reveals the long-teased identity of the mysterious cast member in the coffin. Very soon the audience will find out whose funeral Oliver is attending in the flash-forward scenes.
The show ruled out one prime candidate for mortality already when Felicity was shown to be alive and well in a separate flash-forward scene, but what are the odds of survival for the rest of Team Arrow?
What we know:
Oliver and Felicity will obviously survive the events of "Eleven Fifty-Nine," since we've seen both characters graveside in the future scenes. Flash is also in attendance at the funeral, though he doesn't seem particularly distraught about being at the cemetery (Oliver does hint the Speedster is preoccupied by whatever chaos Zoom is cooking up in the Tuesday night series).
It’s safe to assume the death is going to be a major gut punch to Team Arrow. In the second flash-forward scene, Felicity can be heard telling Oliver that he needs to kill whomever's responsible. Considering Ms. Smoak has been vehemently opposed to Oliver killing either Damien Darhk or Malcolm Merlyn at various points this season, it seems fair to reason that one of those two big bads is our chief murder suspect.
Our new dead friend has to mean enough to Felicity and Oliver to leave them despondent and contemplating homicide, and the death has to be big enough news to draw Barry Allen to Star City while Zoom is busy being horrifying back in his hometown.
So … who’s in the box?
Way off the mark:
Curtis Holt -- We all love Curtis. His character has been a bright spot in a dreary season. But would the writers really spend all this time incorporating Curtis into the Team Arrow fold just to whack him one episode after he finds out Oliver’s secret identity? Would they kill off Mr. Terrific before he becomes Monsieur Terrifiant?
No, of course not.
Grief factor: Stray arrow
Mortality odds: 1,000 to 1
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Donna Smoak -- Curtis’ chief rival in the comedic relief department, Donna’s ties to Felicity and Quentin Lance make her death somewhat more likely. Obviously, Felicity would want Oliver to carry out bloody vengeance on behalf of her high-heels-obsessed mother, and the Donna-Quentin romance has been an adorably goofy distraction all season long. Darhk’s also has got plenty of reason to hurt Quentin after he testified against the archvillain in open court. We know Darhk isn’t about quick and painless, and he’s not above hurting the people closest to his enemy, as evidenced by his attacks on basically everyone Oliver cares about during the mayoral storyline.
But this season has been severely lacking in stakes. So if the point of this death is to make Oliver’s rivalry with Darhk or Merlyn intensely personal, it needs to hit him just as hard as it does Felicity. Killing Donna doesn’t accomplish that.
Grief factor: Two well-placed arrows to the back
Mortality odds: 200 to 1
Laurel Lance -- If the CW left this up to the fans, as DC once did with Jason Todd in the infamous Batman “Death in the Family†arc, Laurel would be a near-lock to shuffle off this mortal coil. While she’s a marvelous character in most incarnations, the TV version of Black Canary was given a lot of grief by a large chunk of the Arrow fanbase. In fairness, her introduction was pretty rough, but Laurel has enjoyed a slight resurgence in recent weeks, especially during her courtroom clash with Damien Darhk’s legal team. Laurel has never been a particular target of Darhk or Merlyn, so I’m struggling to see why either villain would choose to take her off the board outside of the sheer chaos of a larger brawl.
Fan apathy toward Laurel would also make her an odd choice for what we presume to be such a pivotal moment in the season and series.
Grief factor: Wild shot
Mortality odds: 100 to 1
Closer to the target:
Quentin Lance -- If the police captain’s season-long redemption arc were to end with him occupying a pine box, that would certainly register on the emotional Richter scale. Quentin put himself squarely in Darhk’s sights two episodes ago, atoning for his complicity in Darhk’s rise to power by providing the testimony that sent Darhk to Iron Heights (which is apparently more of a revolving door than Arkham Asylum). Darhk is more than likely busting out of prison during “Eleven Fifty-Nine,†and that could very well spell doom for Quentin. Capt. Lance has suffered several personal and professional haymakers over the course of the series, and to see him die in the midst of his blooming romance with Donna would truly hurt.
But I think there are some more painful options.
Grief factor: Four arrows to the gut
Mortality odds: 10 to 1
Thea Queen -- “Speedy†has been a popular pick for “Chief Superhero Cemetery Occupant†since the season premiere. Many fans believed Merlyn would be forced to kill his only daughter to save her from the Vampiric bloodlust she was suffering as a result of her dip in the Lazarus Pit, a dip that was ultimately caused by Merlyn’s machinations in the first place. With Merlyn seemingly wrestling Big Bad status away from Darhk, and the show placing increased focus on Merlyn and Oliver’s rivalry during the League of Assassins coup storyline earlier this year, the idea of placing Malcolm and the Arrow in a death match is certainly enticing.
Merlyn is the show’s unquestioned best villain (I will only hear Deathstroke counter-arguments, and Malcolm still wins on longevity and body count) and his fight scenes with Oliver have been among the series’ best action pieces. The sacrifice of Thea in service of putting massive heat on Malcolm makes complete narrative sense, and would instantly raise the stakes in a season that has been lacking them. But Thea has almost died on several occasions in recent memory, and that makes me believe there’s someone else destined for the afterlife.
Grief factor: Half the quiver
Mortality odds: 4 to 1
Bullseye:
John Diggle -- It hurts me to type this, but David Ramsey is dead as disco, nearly a lock to join Moira Queen and Tommy Merlyn in that big Arrow Cave in the sky. One could dismiss the trailer’s intense focus on Diggle as a red herring, but the potentially overwhelming hurt that would be caused by his death is too hard to ignore. The sudden reveal that his brother is still in H.I.V.E.’s pocket also places an additional player on the board who might look to kill John.
But before we get to the narrative logic of a Diggle death, let’s just look at this from an emotional perspective. Diggle is the only character as universally adored as Felicity, probably the only character whose death would force me to wipe my eyes and wonder if the room is getting dusty. He’s been a critical component since Day One, serving as a best friend, advisor, sidekick and warrior in Oliver’s crusade. The scene where he asks Oliver to be the best man at his wedding while they’re facing certain death at the hands of Ra’s al Ghul in Season 3 is a Butch and Sundance moment, and the subsequent schism between the two friends was one of the series’ better emotional arcs. His stable family life with Lydia and Sara is a holy grail most of the other Team Arrow members can only hope for, and that means he has the most to lose.
From a narrative standpoint, Diggle is one of the few people whose death would cause Oliver to kill again. The series has poked at the idea of Oliver returning to his lethal ways at various points this season, and he’s had opportunities to kill Darhk and Merlyn. If either of them put Diggle in the ground, Mr. Queen is going to feel overwhelmingly guilty that his decision to spare them may have doomed his friend. There’s also the possibility that Andy, whose supposed death has in many ways fueled Diggle’s actions throughout the series, actually kills his own brother at Darhk or Merlyn’s behest. (We haven’t seen Darhk’s mind control abilities come into play for a while, but they’re still there.)
If this season’s narrative mission is to cause Oliver’s character to suffer a fundamental shift, one that sees him at least entertain his deadlier, loner vigilante ways, then there is simply no better way to accomplish that than killing the original partner in his crusade.
Grief factor: Full quiver to the heart
Mortality odds: 2 to 1
Follow @JamesQueallyLAT for more predictions about fictional deaths, or to mock him when it's inevitably revealed that it's Dick Grayson in the coffin and that he was killed by a Robot Joker who will appear in a future "Legends of Tomorrow" episode. You can also follow him for police and crime news in the real world.
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