Gold Standard: Glenn Whipp’s Golden Globe nomination predictions

The Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. didn’t throw us many curveballs last year with its Golden Globe nominations, which sort of defeats the purpose of the whole exercise, doesn’t it? If we wanted a group to rubber stamp the awards-season consensus, we’d look to the Broadcast Film Critics Assn. So make with the wackiness, HFPAers. It’s what you do best.

MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA

“Unbroken”

“The Imitation Game”

“Boyhood”

“Gone Girl”

“The Theory of Everything”

Bubbling under: “Interstellar,” “Foxcatcher,” “Selma,” “American Sniper”

Analysis: Our hunch is that “Gone Girl” claims the commercial slot over “Interstellar,” though it wouldn’t be a surprise to see both nominated. Globe voters love rewarding anything that will bring viewers to the show. Snubbing the acclaimed indie “Boyhood,” though, would reap a whirlwind of derision. Don’t even think about it, voters.

ACTOR, DRAMA

Eddie Redmayne, “The Theory of Everything”

Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Imitation Game”

Steve Carell, “Foxcatcher”

Bradley Cooper, “American Sniper”

Ben Affleck, “Gone Girl”

Bubbling under: David Oyelowo, “Selma”; Timothy Spall, “Mr. Turner”; Matthew McConaughey, “Interstellar”; Mark Wahlberg, “The Gambler”; Brad Pitt, “Fury”

Analysis: Cooper has received nominations the last two years on the comedy side and should make it a hat trick for his superb turn as the Navy SEAL in “Sniper.” Oyelowo could be a factor, though the Globes completely ignored the civil rights drama “The Butler” last year.

ACTRESS, DRAMA

Julianne Moore, “Still Alice”

Reese Witherspoon, “Wild”

Amy Adams, “Big Eyes”

Rosamund Pike, “Gone Girl”

Jessica Chastain, “The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby”

Bubbling under: Felicity Jones, “The Theory of Everything,” Shailene Woodley, “The Fault in Our Stars”; Hilary Swank, “The Homesman”

Analysis: Maybe I’m giving Harvey Weinstein too much credit for his track record in bending Globe voters to his will and Jones or Woodley will make it in over Chastain for her turn in the deeply flawed “Eleanor Rigby.” But sometimes you have to throw common sense out the window with this bunch. This is one of those occasions.

MOTION PICTURE, MUSICAL/COMEDY

“Birdman”

“Into the Woods”

“The Grand Budapest Hotel”

“Pride”

“Begin Again”

Bubbling under: “Top Five,” “St. Vincent,” “Inherent Vice,” “Annie,” “Chef”

Analysis: The Globe voters adore musicals (“Burlesque,” “Mamma Mia!” and “Nine” are but a few of the middling titles that have received nominations), so look for a lot of love for “Begin Again,” which is also (yes!) a Weinstein Co. movie. (And, to be fair, a pretty good one.) The crowd-pleaser “Pride” has all the elements (genteel, English, not really all that funny) of the kind of film these voters like to reward here.

ACTOR, MUSICAL/COMEDY

Michael Keaton, “Birdman”

Chadwick Boseman, “Get On Up”

Ralph Fiennes, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”

Bill Murray, “St. Vincent”

Mark Ruffalo, “Begin Again”

Bubbling under: Chris Rock, “Top Five”; Joaquin Phoenix, “Inherent Vice”; James Corden, “Into the Woods”; Al Pacino, “The Humbling”

Analysis: The HFPA has never nominated Ruffalo or Rock, which should change, unless voters really dug “Into the Woods.” Then look for the British Corden, soon to succeed Craig Ferguson as host of “The Late Late Show,” to make the cut.

ACTRESS, MUSICAL/COMEDY

Emily Blunt, “Into the Woods”

Angelina Jolie, “Maleficent”

Helen Mirren, “The Hundred Foot Journey”

Keira Knightley, “Begin Again”

Quvenzhane Wallis, “Annie”

Bubbling under: Kristen Wiig, “The Skeleton Twins”; Julianne Moore, “Maps to the Stars”; Jenny Slate, “Obvious Child”; Jennifer Aniston, “Cake”

Analysis: Moore could get a second nomination here for “Maps,” the David Cronenberg misfire that will have an Oscar-qualifying run before it opens in theaters in late February. Its collection of tired stereotypes about L.A. and the movie industry feels like the kind of film that this group would find trenchant.

DRAMA SERIES

“The Affair”

“House of Cards”

“Game of Thrones”

“Masters of Sex”

“How to Get Away With Murder”

Bubbling under: “The Good Wife,” “Mad Men,” “Downton Abbey,” “Manhattan,” “The Knick”

Analysis: Globes voters love to claim new series before the Emmys, which should be good news for “The Affair,” “Murder” and, possibly, WGN’s acclaimed “Manhattan.”

ACTOR IN A TELEVISION DRAMA

Kevin Spacey, “House of Cards”

Clive Owen, “The Knick”

Dominic West, “The Affair”

Michael Sheen, “Masters of Sex”

James Spader, “The Blacklist”

Bubbling under: Liev Schreiber, “Ray Donovan”; Timothy Dalton, “Penny Dreadful”; Jon Hamm, “Mad Men”; John Benjamin Hickey, “Manhattan”; Ben McKenzie, “Gotham”

Analysis: Subbing out one Showtime series headliner (Schreiber) for another (West). Owen, an HFPA favorite, should also break through for his strong work on Steven Soderbergh’s nasty “The Knick.”

ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION DRAMA

Viola Davis, “How to Get Away With Murder”

Robin Wright, “House of Cards”

Ruth Wilson, “The Affair”

Lizzy Caplan, “Masters of Sex”

Julianna Margulies, “The Good Wife”

Bubbling under: Kerry Washington, “Scandal”; Caitriona Balfe, “Outlander”; Tatiana Maslany, “Orphan Black”

Analysis: It’s possible we’ll see a Shonda Rhimes twofer with Davis and Washington, though with 11 nominations, it’s hard to bet against Margulies returning.

COMEDY SERIES

“Orange Is the New Black”

“Modern Family”

“Brooklyn Nine-Nine”

“The Big Bang Theory”

“Transparent”

Bubbling under: “Veep,” “Silicon Valley,” “Louie,” “The Comeback”

Analysis: “Brooklyn Nine-Nine” was the surprise winner last year and it wouldn’t be shocking to see Amazon’s transgender dramedy “Transparent” do the same this time around. And just in case you were wondering: “Veep” has never been nominated.

ACTOR IN A TELEVISION COMEDY

Jeffrey Tambor, “Transparent”

Andy Samberg, “Brooklyn Nine-Nine”

Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory”

Ricky Gervais, “Derek”

Anthony Anderson, “black-ish”

Bubbling under: Louis C.K., “Louie”; Matt LeBlanc, “Episodes”; Ian McKellan, “Vicious”; Don Cheadle, “House of Lies”

Analysis: The Anderson nomination for first-year comedy “black-ish” is a hunch and goes against the voting body’s propensity to reward premium-cable performances. McKellan’s a nice dark horse for the biting British import “Vicious,” broadcast in the U.S. on PBS.

ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION COMEDY

Lisa Kudrow, “The Comeback”

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “Veep”

Taylor Schilling, “Orange Is the New Black”

Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation”

Anna Faris, “Mom”

Bubbling under: Lena Dunham, “Girls”; Gina Rodriguez, “Jane the Virgin”; Casey Wilson, “Marry Me”; Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie”; Emmy Rossum, “Shameless”

Analysis: As mentioned earlier, the foreign entertainment writers don’t get “Veep,” which means they’re the one group that hasn’t given a trophy to Louis-Dreyfus. We bet the “Veep” writers could come up with a beautiful screed as to why.