Box office outlook for 2024: Lowered expectations, but don’t count out wild cards

Bad news first: Thanks to the wreckage inflicted on Hollywood’s production apparatus during the six months of combined actors’ and writers’ strikes, the film industry is looking at a 2024 domestic box office that, according to analyst estimates, will likely come in at around $8 billion.

That’s roughly $1 billion less than ticket sales generated last year in the U.S. and Canada, for a projected decline of 11%.

This downbeat assessment might turn out to be premature. After all, no one was counting on “Barbie� or “Oppenheimer� causing a social media chain reaction, nor were people anticipating the wild cards of “Sound of Freedom,� “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour� and “Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé� adding to the cinema industry’s top line.

But there’s at least one factor we know for sure will weigh on the theatrical business during the next 52 weeks. A substantial number of movies that would’ve brought in major sums of money were pushed out of this year’s calendar, including “Captain America: Brave New World,� the next “Mission: Impossible� and “Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse.�

This is why the studios didn’t really want their labor morass to drag on any longer than it did, despite pervasive hype about all the money saved from not making stuff.

That said, there are good reasons for moviegoers to curb whatever sense of dread those numbers might inspire, because there are some highly anticipated films in store, including Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune: Part Two,� Luca Guadagnino’s “Challengers� (both transplants from 2023), George Miller’s “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga� and Todd Phillips’ “Joker: Folie à Deux.�

Fans can take some relief from the fact that Disney and Marvel will have some extra time to work on “Brave New World� and that Warner Bros.’ James Gunn-piloted DC reboot of the DC universe doesn’t start until next year with “Superman: Legacy.� This comes after a superhero car crash of disappointments that included “The Marvels,� “The Flash,� “Blue Beetle� and “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom.�

Plus, there are surely some films that have been overlooked by, or haven’t been fed into, our intellectual property-fueled box office forecasting algorithm (if only The Times had such a thing).

Last year’s box office (up 21% from the previous year, but down 22% from pre-pandemic levels, according to Comscore data), gave some measure of hope for film fans, and not just because of the number of non-sequels at the top of the charts, as my colleagues J. Clara Chan and Christi Caras reported.

Having a diverse mix of genres and films for multiple audiences (animation, comedy, action and ever-reliable horror) remains a winning strategy for studios.

Films that might have been labeled “niche,� including Hayao Miyazaki’s “The Boy and the Heron� and Toho’s “Godzilla Minus One� (both ambitious pictures from Japan) found their audiences, grossing $36.8 million and $46.2 million, respectively, in the U.S. and Canada. Both were highly acclaimed and well-marketed by companies that understood the target market.

Even the much-eulogized specialty market showed proof of life, with Alexander Payne’s winning prep school dramedy “The Holdovers� (starring Paul Giamatti, Da’Vine Joy Randolph and Dominic Sessa) clocking in at about $18 million domestically. Not a blockbuster like “Sideways,� to be sure (2004 was a different time), but solid for an emotionally astute and relatively quiet Focus Features release. The title is already and somewhat jarringly available on streaming service Peacock, following its expanded theatrical release last November.

Certain musicals performed well to close out the year, perhaps despite the perceived misgivings of studio marketing departments, with holiday-timed release “Wonka� scoring $140 million and “The Color Purple� earning a promising $47 million so far. Clearly audiences don’t have any broad-based aversion to people singing on screen.

Anyway, all of that belies the often repeated canard that originality is dead and Hollywood only does sequels, remakes and toy movies. It definitely does a lot of those things, and that won’t stop, but there’s still other types of movies out there, even if it’s gotten harder. Does anyone seriously look at the slate of movies from last year (“Past Lives,� “Talk to Me,� “Killers of the Flower Moon,� “Poor Things�) and come away with the impression that 2023 was a poor year for film?

A movie business that focuses only on swinging for the fences would certainly be a dull one, whether you’re a filmmaker, executive, audience member or journalist. The available evidence shows that’s not where things are headed quite yet.

Our annual executives roundtable is here!

Strikes, streaming and AI: Hollywood executives debate the issues that defined a wild 2023. The Times spoke to Nicole Brown of TriStar Pictures; Sam Register of Warner Bros. Animation; Jonathan Glickman of Panoramic Media Co.; Roy Lee of Vertigo Entertainment; Chris Hart of United Talent Agency; and FredAnthony Smith of SMAC Entertainment.

More stuff we wrote

Who would lend millions to Hunter Biden? Meet the Hollywood lawyer who has. How wealthy Hollywood attorney Kevin Morris joined forces with Hunter Biden to help the president’s son face his legal and personal problems.

Why Netflix is turning ‘Yu Yu Hakusho,’ ‘One Piece’ and other manga series into live-action shows. As it looks to build its global audience, Netflix in the last five years has released more than 10 TV and film adaptations based on popular Japanese manga or anime.

Labor unrest defined Hollywood in 2023. Here’s what we learned from the twin strikes. Hollywood’s year of strikes has come to an end, but is a new one about to begin? Industry members reflect on the entertainment labor movement.

Screamboat Willie? Mickey Mouse horror films lurk as cartoon enters public domain. At least two Mickey Mouse-inspired horror movies have been announced.

Finally ...

One of my New Year’s resolutions is to build out an ongoing playlist for writing and editing. Please send suggestions to [email protected]. I tend to lean toward atmospheric instrumental rock and movie soundtracks, but I will accept your weird EDM as well.