Our 2024 Oscars BuzzMeter predicts the nominees!

Four of the top contenders for the 2024 lead-actor Oscar, photographed moodily against a dark-blue, marbled backdrop.

Published Nov. 17, 2023 Updated Jan. 18, 2024 9:05 AM PT

Two more weeks to check out our stout awards stalwarts’ predictions of what the academy will nominate in 10 Oscar categories. We’re coming up on last looks at Round 2 of the BuzzMeter, with Round 3 (winner predictions) just around the corner.

Each round, our panel of six veteran film journalists ranks picks in each category, using a points system (most points for top choice) that yields a fair picture of what their roiling, wrestling group mind believes are the best bets. In Round 1, they let us know what blips were on the Oscar radar, as well as touting their own preferences. In Round 3, they’ll put it all on the line to pick the winners.

Think you can do better? Fill out your own slate in our online polls each week for each featured category. This week, we check out a race that has seen some recent movement as awards season has played out: lead actor.

Your 2024 Oscars BuzzMeter panel: Six veteran film journalists.

Lead actor

A scientist (J. Robert Oppenheimer, played by Cillian Murphy) in goggles, in a bunker, watches the first atomic test.

Cillian Murphy takes over the top spot in Round 2, ahead of Andrew Scott and Bradley Cooper, and not by a nose: Murphy has about 150% of the totals at which those two are tied. However, someone else has been picking up the critics’ awards so far ... and he jumps into the nominations circle this week.

“For now, it’s Cillian Murphy’s to lose for the title role in ‘Oppenheimer,’ while Andrew Scott (Hot Priest in ‘Fleabag’) could move up in the rankings as more people see his bravura performance in ‘All of Us Strangers,’ ” says Anne Thompson, also citing Cooper’s “makeup-enhanced portrayal of composer-conductor Leonard Bernstein.”

“Nine-time nominee Bradley Cooper delivers a career-best performance in ‘Maestro’ and could be a 12- or 13-time nominee within a few months,” says Dave Karger. “Could this finally be his year?”

Plenty of contenders get fervent support in Round 2. “Best actor, by all rights, should go to Andrew Scott for his masterfully nuanced and soulful performance in ‘All of Us Strangers,’ closely followed by Colman Domingo’s dazzling turn in ‘Rustin’ and Jeffrey Wright’s witty portrayal in ‘American Fiction,’ ” says Claudia Puig, also citing the “always-superb Paul Giamatti” and Nicolas Cage in “Dream Scenario.”

Some late futzing by the panel, following Giamatti’s strong awards-season showing thus far (wins at the Critics’ Choice and Golden Globes and, more importantly, a SAG nom), vaults the veteran into the panel’s eyeline — and into the nominees circle (sorry, Leo). A SAG nom, however, still hasn’t moved Domingo into the Buzzers’ earshot: He’s currently tied for ninth place.

Cage, Giamatti and others also make Tim Cogshell’s list, though he saves the top spot for Barry Keoghan, who “is b— out in ‘Saltburn,’ literally.”

1. Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”)
2. (tie) Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”)
2. (tie) Andrew Scott (“All of Us Strangers”)
4. Paul Giamatti (“The Holdovers”)
5. Jeffrey Wright (“American Fiction”)
6. Leonardo DiCaprio (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
7. Barry Keoghan (“Saltburn”)
8. Nicolas Cage (“Dream Scenario”)
9. (tie) Colman Domingo (“Rustin”)
9. (tie) Jamie Foxx (“The Burial”)
11. Teo Yoo (“Past Lives”)

Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times

1. Andrew Scott (“All of Us Strangers”)
2. Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”)
3. Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
5. Teo Yoo (“Past Lives”)

“Basically, there’s Andrew Scott in ‘All of Us Strangers’ and there’s everyone else. But that everyone else does include some terrific lead actors whom I wish had more of a chance, including Christian Friedel (‘The Zone of Interest’), Elliot Crosset Hove (‘Godland’), Thomas Schubert (‘Afire’), Michael Thomas (‘Rimini’) and the great Koji Yakusho (‘Perfect Days’), who won a well-deserved prize at Cannes.”

Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. Barry Keoghan (“Saltburn”)
2. Nicolas Cage (“Dream Scenario”)
3. Jamie Foxx (“The Burial”)
4. Paul Giamatti (“The Holdovers”)
5. Jeffrey Wright (“American Fiction”)

“I still love Paul Giamatti in ‘The Holdovers’ and root for the mighty Jamie Foxx in all things; he’s great in ‘The Burial,’ another fan favorite. Barry Keoghan is b— out in ‘Saltburn’ (literally), and Colman Domingo is also daring in ‘Rustin.’ In ‘American Fiction,’ Jeffrey Wright plays a character named for virtuoso composer and pianist Thelonious Monk, which is most appropriate for an actor of Wright’s talents. He was also great in supporting roles in ‘Asteroid City’ and ‘Rustin.’ Matt Damon is good in that forgotten film, ‘Air,’ Teo Yoo is very good in ‘Past Lives,’ as is Andrew Scott in ‘All of Us Strangers.’ My dark horse nomination goes to Nic Cage for another great performance in ‘Dream Scenario.’ ”

Dave Karger
TCM; Author of “50 Oscar Nights”

1. Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”)
2. Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”)
3. Colman Domingo (“Rustin”)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
5. Andrew Scott (“All of Us Strangers”)

“Nine-time nominee Bradley Cooper delivers a career-best performance in ‘Maestro’ and could be a 12- or 13-time nominee within a few months. Could this finally be his year? He’ll have to fend off film-anchoring performances from the likes of Cillian Murphy and Colman Domingo. Worthy underdogs abound here, including ‘Saltburn’s’ Barry Keoghan, ‘Dream Scenario’s’ Nicolas Cage, and Andrew Scott, pitch-perfect in ‘All of Us Strangers.’ ”

Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. Andrew Scott (“All of Us Strangers”)
2. Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”)
3. Jeffrey Wright (“American Fiction”)
4. Paul Giamatti (“The Holdovers”)
5. Colman Domingo (“Rustin”)

“Best actor, by all rights, should go to Andrew Scott for his masterfully nuanced and soulful performance in ‘All of Us Strangers,’ closely followed by Colman Domingo’s dazzling turn in ‘Rustin’ and Jeffrey Wright’s witty portrayal in ‘American Fiction.’ But don’t count out the always-superb Paul Giamatti as a sardonic prep school teacher in ‘The Holdovers’ and Nicolas Cage as a hapless family man in ‘Dream Scenario.’ ”

Anne Thompson
IndieWire

1. Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”)
2. Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”)
3. Andrew Scott (“All of Us Strangers”)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
5. Colman Domingo (“Rustin”)

“Lead actor could move around over the next few months. For now, it’s Cillian Murphy’s to lose for the title role in ‘Oppenheimer,’ while Andrew Scott (Hot Priest in ‘Fleabag’) could move up in the rankings as more people see his bravura performance in ‘All of Us Strangers.’ Bradley Cooper is earning raves for his makeup-enhanced portrayal of composer-conductor Leonard Bernstein. Leonardo DiCaprio has won before, and voters may not consider his turn as a dimwitted stooge in ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ his best work to date.”

Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times

1. Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”)
2. Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
4. Jeffrey Wright (“American Fiction”)
5. Andrew Scott (“All of Us Strangers”)

“Andrew Scott is 47 and boasts a long resume of distinguished credits in British theater, the BBC series ‘Sherlock’ and, of course, the rather handsome priest on ‘Fleabag.’ With ‘All of Us Strangers,’ he finally has a film role worthy of his talent, playing a solitary man dealing with the ghosts of his past and, perhaps, his present. It’s a soul-stirring turn filled with vulnerability, openness and a beauty that shatters.”

online polls

Best picture

A cheerful woman drives a car with a serious-looking man in the back seat.

It looks like “Barbenheimer” rules the roost, but really it’s “Oppenheimer” with a whopping point total over 50 (60 would be the max in this category) and “Barbie” 15 points back in second place. Still, having two of the year’s highest grossers — “Barbie” being No. 1 — legitimately at the top of the best-picture mountain has to be music to Oscar’s ears, if the statue had any. Not too long ago, remember, the academy had been considering a “popular film” category to get rank-and-file moviegoers more involved. And look, the Golden Globes have introduced a “Cinematic and Box Office Achievement” category that finds the “Barbenheimer” duo up against “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” and “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour.” So ... take that as you will.

“Barbenheimer” “dominated the cultural conversation for weeks after their summer release,” says Glenn Whipp. “There’s still plenty more to talk about, though, and the motion picture academy, with an eye toward ratings, will welcome that discourse.”

Beyond the noted boffo box office, Claudia Puig posits, “This could be the tide-turning year where comedies are finally shown respect by Oscar voters. The aforementioned ‘Barbie’ and the bizarrely funny ‘Poor Things’ are sure to make the cut, as well as the poignant buddy comedy ‘The Holdovers’ and the witty social satire ‘American Fiction.’ ”

Several strong international releases have chances to extend the streak of the academy including a film not primarily in the English language in the best-picture field.

Justin Chang wraps his arms around all of it: “This has been as strong a year for international cinema (‘The Zone of Interest,’ ‘Anatomy of a Fall’), independent cinema (‘Past Lives,’ ‘Showing Up’) and mainstream Hollywood (‘Oppenheimer,’ ‘Barbie,’ ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’) alike.”

Among those not receiving votes in Round 2: “The Boy and the Heron,” “Dream Scenario,” “Dumb Money,” “Flora and Son,” “May December,” “Napoleon,” “Nyad,” “Saltburn.” Perhaps surprisingly, “The Color Purple,” making waves in other categories now that it’s screening, barely registers at the bottom of the list.

1. “Oppenheimer”
2. “Barbie”
3. “Killers of the Flower Moon”
4. “Poor Things”
5. “The Zone of Interest”
6. “Past Lives”
7. “American Fiction”
8. (tie) “All of Us Strangers”
8. (tie) “Anatomy of a Fall”
8. (tie) “Maestro”
11. “The Holdovers”
12. “They Cloned Tyrone”
13. “The Burial”
14. “Air”
15. “The Color Purple”
17. “Rustin”
17. “Showing Up”

Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times

1. “The Zone of Interest”
2. “All of Us Strangers”
3. “Oppenheimer”
4. “Poor Things”
5. “Killers of the Flower Moon”
6. “Anatomy of a Fall”
7. “Past Lives”
8. “Barbie”
9. “Maestro”
10. “Showing Up”

“A proper list of best picture nominees — which is by no means assured, though we can dream — would reflect that this has been as strong a year for international cinema (‘The Zone of Interest,’ ‘Anatomy of a Fall’), independent cinema (‘Past Lives,’ ‘Showing Up’) and mainstream Hollywood (‘Oppenheimer,’ ‘Barbie,’ ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’) alike.”

Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. “They Cloned Tyrone”
2. “The Burial”
3. “Air”
4. “The Holdovers”
5. “Oppenheimer”
6. “Past Lives”
7. “Rustin”
8. “Barbie”
9. “The Color Purple”
10. “American Fiction”

“The previously favored ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ has been eclipsed for some by ‘Maestro’ as the leading contender for best picture. Neither is among my choices for the top spot. ‘Oppenheimer’ and ‘Barbie’ are certainly solid popular contenders. Still, the films I would like to see win include ‘American Fiction,’ ‘Past Lives,’ ‘The Color Purple,’ ‘The Holdovers,’ ‘The Burial’ and ‘They Cloned Tyrone’ (because they did). ‘Zone of Interest’ and ‘Rustin’ are also among my favorites.”

Dave Karger
TCM; Author of “50 Oscar Nights”

1. “Oppenheimer”
2. “Killers of the Flower Moon”
3. “Barbie”
4. “Maestro”
5. “The Zone of Interest”
6. “Past Lives”
7. “Poor Things”
8. “American Fiction”
9. “Anatomy of a Fall”
10. “All of Us Strangers”

“The marquee category already has its fair share of locks: ‘Oppenheimer,’ ‘Barbie,’ ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ and likely nominees ‘Maestro,’ ‘Poor Things,’ ‘The Zone of Interest.’ I’m also rooting for two of my favorite films of the year, which seem to be on the bubble at this early stage: ‘Anatomy of a Fall’ and ‘All of Us Strangers.’ The race would be much more interesting with them in the running.”

Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. “Past Lives”
2. “All of Us Strangers”
3. “Barbie”
4. “Killers of the Flower Moon”
5. (tie) “Oppenheimer”
5. (tie) “Anatomy of a Fall”
7. “American Fiction”
8. “Poor Things”
9. “The Zone of Interest”
10. “The Holdovers”

“Leading the list are the powerful epics ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ and ‘Oppenheimer,’ followed by the less-hyped, but no-less-masterful dramas ‘All of Us Strangers,’ ‘Anatomy of a Fall,’ ‘Past Lives’ and ‘Zone of Interest.’ ‘Barbie,’ the summer’s runaway hit, will surely have a place among the top nominees, not only because it was clever and amusing, but because of its record-breaking box-office success. This could be the tide-turning year where comedies are finally shown respect by Oscar voters. The aforementioned ‘Barbie’ and the bizarrely funny ‘Poor Things’ are sure to make the cut, as well as the poignant buddy comedy ‘The Holdovers’ and the witty social satire ‘American Fiction.’ ”

Anne Thompson
IndieWire

1. “Oppenheimer”
2. “Poor Things”
3. “Barbie”
4. “American Fiction”
5. “The Zone of Interest”
6. “Anatomy of a Fall”
7. “Maestro”
8. “Killers of the Flower Moon”
9. “The Holdovers”
10. “Past Lives”

“Things can change, but three movies are poised to dominate the race: blockbusters ‘Oppenheimer’ and ‘Barbie’ and festival darling ‘Poor Things.’ Three literary adaptations, Toronto audience-award-winner ‘American Fiction’ (from the Percival Everett novel ‘Erasure’), queer ghost story ‘All of Us Strangers’ (from ‘Summer of the Strange People’ by Taichi Yamada), and holocaust drama ‘The Zone of Interest’ (based on the Martin Amis book) are also in the mix.”

Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times

1. “Oppenheimer”
2. “Poor Things”
3. “Killers of the Flower Moon”
4. “Barbie”
5. “Maestro”
6. “American Fiction”
7. “The Color Purple”
8. “The Holdovers”
9. “The Zone of Interest”
10. “Anatomy of a Fall”

“In what has been a very good year for movies, the 2024 Oscars will likely be remembered as a sequel to ‘Barbenheimer.’ Christopher Nolan’s ‘Oppenheimer’ and Greta Gerwig’s ‘Barbie’ were critically acclaimed box-office behemoths, movies that dominated the cultural conversation for weeks after their summer release. There’s still plenty more to talk about, though, and the motion picture academy, with an eye toward ratings, will welcome that discourse.”

Best director

Nattily dressed director Christopher Nolan talks with Cillian Murphy (J. Robert Oppenheimer) on an opulent hotel set.

The Round 2 results are nearly unchanged from Round 1. Two veterans continue to look like slam dunks: Christopher Nolan and Martin Scorsese. Given the popularity of her film and her previous nom (for “Lady Bird”), Greta Gerwig also looks like a solid pick at No. 3, with the fifth spot going to Yorgos Lanthimos, also a previous nominee (for “The Favourite”).

If Gerwig got her roses, says Puig, “The academy would also be acknowledging a woman — which it has only done three times before in its 95 years. (‘Showing Up’s’ Kelly Reichardt and ‘Past Lives’ ’ Celine Song are also highly deserving this year).”

Perhaps surprisingly, comfortably in fourth place is Jonathan Glazer for “The Zone of Interest”; a nomination would make him the sixth director in six years to be honored for a film substantially in a language other than English.

Glenn Whipp says, “Jonathan Glazer has made four daring, distinctive films in 23 years – ‘Sexy Beast,’ ‘Birth,’ ‘Under the Skin’ and now, ‘The Zone of Interest.” Dave Karger says, “I’m also bullish on ‘The Zone of Interest’s’ visionary Jonathan Glazer, who, despite making roughly one film per decade, remains a favorite amongst his fellow directors. He’s had two BAFTA nods but never an Oscar nomination. That very well could change this year.”

Anne Thompson sees strong candidates on the outside, looking in: “Who gets left out? Bradley Cooper for his second feature in which he stars, ‘Maestro’? Alexander Payne, who may have to settle for cheering on his ‘The Holdovers’ screenwriter?”

Tim Cogshell flags “Blitz Bazawule for ‘The Color Purple’ or Cord Jefferson for ‘American Fiction,’ both of whom happen to be African-American men who’ve made exceptional films.”

1. Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”)
2. Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
3. Greta Gerwig (“Barbie”)
4. Jonathan Glazer (“The Zone of Interest”)
5. Yorgos Lanthimos (“Poor Things”)
6. (tie) Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”)
6. (tie) Andrew Haigh (“All of Us Strangers”)
8. Blitz Bazawule (“The Color Purple”)
9. (tie) Cord Jefferson (“American Fiction”)
9. (tie) Kelly Reichardt (“Showing Up”)

Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times

1. Jonathan Glazer (“The Zone of Interest”)
2. Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”)
3. Andrew Haigh (“All of Us Strangers”)
4. Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
5. Kelly Reichardt (“Showing Up”)

“A battle looms between Christopher Nolan, gunning for an overdue first win, and Martin Scorsese, very much in the hunt for a second. As for that mysterious slot that the directors branch likes to throw an international filmmaker, this year’s Cannes lineup provides many options: Justine Triet (‘Anatomy of a Fall’), Wim Wenders (‘Perfect Days’), Tran Anh Hùng (‘The Taste of Things’) and, to my mind, the likeliest beneficiary, Jonathan Glazer (‘The Zone of Interest’).”

Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
2. Greta Gerwig (“Barbie”)
3. Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”)
4. Blitz Bazawule (“The Color Purple”)
5. Cord Jefferson (“American Fiction”)

“The usual suspects are still likely to garner nominations. However, Bradley Cooper may be out front of his elder (and executive producer of ‘Maestro’), Martin Scorsese.The balance of my early choices — Coppola for ‘Priscilla,’ Reichardt for ‘Showing Up,’ Payne for ‘The Holdovers’ and Wolfe for ‘Rustin’ — are not likely. Perhaps Blitz Bazawule for ‘The Color Purple’ or Cord Jefferson for ‘American Fiction,’ both of whom happen to be African-American men who’ve made exceptional films. Maybe Ben Affleck for ‘Air,’ a forgotten fan favorite that is not on my best-picture list because it does seem to be forgotten. And, of course, Ms. Gerwig for ‘Barbie.’ ”

Dave Karger
TCM; Author of “50 Oscar Nights”

1. Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”)
2. Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
3. Greta Gerwig (“Barbie”)
4. Jonathan Glazer (“The Zone of Interest”)
5. Yorgos Lanthimos (“Poor Things”)

“Martin Scorsese and the ‘Barbenheimer’ duo of Greta Gerwig and Christopher Nolan seem like sure-thing repeat nominees. I’m also bullish on ‘The Zone of Interest’s’ visionary Jonathan Glazer, who despite making roughly one film per decade, remains a favorite amongst his fellow directors. He’s had two BAFTA nods but never an Oscar nomination. That very well could change this year.”

Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. Greta Gerwig (“Barbie”)
2. Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
3. Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”)
4. Jonathan Glazer (“The Zone of Interest”)
5. Yorgos Lanthimos (“Poor Things”)

“The directing Oscar is Martin Scorsese’s to lose, but it could just as easily go to Greta Gerwig, since ‘Barbie’ was such a huge summer hit, and the academy loves to acknowledge box-office winners. And in this case, they would be paying tribute to the movie that jump-started moviegoing after a serious slump of several years. The academy would also be acknowledging a woman—which it has only done three times before in its 95 years. (‘Showing Up’s’ Kelly Reichardt and ‘Past Lives’ ’ Celine Song are also highly deserving this year). My money’s on the academy rewarding the movie that rescued a severely sagging box office.”

Anne Thompson
IndieWire

1. Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”)
2. Greta Gerwig (“Barbie”)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos (“Poor Things”)
4. Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
5. Jonathan Glazer (“The Zone of Interest”)

“Best director comes down to only five: who gets left out? Bradley Cooper for his second feature in which he stars, ‘Maestro’? Alexander Payne, who may have to settle for cheering on his ‘The Holdovers’ screenwriter? Right now, the battle of the auteurs pits Christopher Nolan vs. Greta Gerwig vs. Yorgos Lanthimos.”

Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times

1. Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”)
2. Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos (“Poor Things”)
4. Greta Gerwig (“Barbie”)
5. Jonathan Glazer (“The Zone of Interest”)

“Jonathan Glazer has made four daring, distinctive films in 23 years – ‘Sexy Beast,’ ‘Birth,’ ‘Under the Skin’ and now, ‘The Zone of Interest,’ a chilling look at Auschwitz commandant Rudolf Höss and his family living in the shadow of the concentration camp. It’s a damning assessment of humans’ ability to deny truths that are inconvenient to their ability to lead lives of oblivious comfort.”

Lead actress

A woman wears a string of pearls and a light-blue dress in 1950s-period production and costume design.

Surprise! Carey Mulligan orchestrates a rise to the No. 1 spot in Round 2.

Playing half of a not-always harmonious marriage with “Maestro” Leonard Bernstein (as well as turning in one of the year’s funniest brief appearances in “Saltburn”), Mulligan finds herself back where the BuzzMeter had her for stretches of the 2021 Oscar season, atop the category, for her stellar work in “Promising Young Woman.” But the panel’s comments don’t reflect a particularly high level of enthusiasm:

“Lily Gladstone, Carey Mulligan, and ‘Barbie’ lead Margot Robbie can’t be counted out,” says Dave Karger; Anne Thompson states, “Lead actress is a two-way race between Emma Stone (‘Poor Things’) vying for her second Oscar as a woman with a transplanted brain, and two-time nominee Carey Mulligan (‘Maestro’) trying for her first.”

“I know Carey Mulligan will be nominated for her turn in ‘Maestro,’ which is fine,” says Tim Cogshell. “I would point out that Fantasia [Barrino of ‘The Color Purple’] had to be equally good while singing and dancing wonderfully.”

Some of the other contenders did receive ringing endorsements. Claudia Puig, for instance, calls Lily Gladstone’s work “beautifully restrained,” cites two performances by Sandra Hüller (“her excellent turn in ‘Anatomy of a Fall’ and her disturbing role as a Nazi wife in ‘Zone of Interest’ ”) and calls Greta Lee’s turn “sublimely sensitive,” while also praising Michelle Williams and Julia Louis-Dreyfus.

Meanwhile, Glenn Whipp says, “It’s immediately apparent from the moment Emma Stone lurches on screen as the Frankenstein-like creation in ‘Poor Things’ that we’re witnessing a fearless performance of the first order.”

Justin Chang isn’t so sure Gladstone belongs in lead rather than supporting, but says, “I’m sympathetic to counterarguments citing the outsized emotional impact of Gladstone’s performance. She’s astonishing either way.”

A couple of widely heralded performances suffer precipitous drops in Round 2: Both “Barbie” herself, Margot Robbie, and Lee (“Past Lives”) fail to make the Top 5. And while “The Color Purple” rocks the supporting-actress category, its star, “American Idol” winner Barrino, also finishes out of the money this round.

1. Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”)
2. (tie) Sandra Hüller (“Anatomy of a Fall”)
2. (tie) Emma Stone (“Poor Things”)
4. Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
5. Annette Bening (“Nyad”)
6. (tie) Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (“Origin”)
6. (tie) Teyana Taylor (“A Thousand and One”)
8. Margot Robbie (“Barbie”)
9. (tie) Fantasia Barrino (“The Color Purple”)
9. (tie) Greta Lee (“Past Lives”)
9. (tie) Michelle Williams (“Showing Up”)

Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times

1. Sandra Hüller (“Anatomy of a Fall”)
2. Emma Stone (“Poor Things”)
3. Teyana Taylor (“A Thousand and One”)
4. Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”)
5. Greta Lee (“Past Lives”)

“Lily Gladstone: lead or supporting? Apple says lead, a decision that reads as a strategic (though just short of cynical) attempt to brand the hotly debated ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ as an Osage-centric narrative. I lean supporting, mainly due to screen time and narrative emphasis, though I’m sympathetic to counterarguments citing the outsized emotional impact of Gladstone’s performance. She’s astonishing either way.”

Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”)
2. Sandra Hüller (“Anatomy of a Fall”)
3. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (“Origin”)
4. Annette Bening (“Nyad”)
5. Fantasia Barrino (“The Color Purple”)

“Lily Gladstone for ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ will be nominated. I’m less sure she will win. I can see nominations for Fantasia Barrino for her Celie and Annette Bening for her portrayal of Diana Nyad. I’m still looking forward to seeing director Ava DuVernay’s ‘Origin’ and thus the performance of Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, nominated for Best Supporting Actress in ‘King Richard.’ I know Carey Mulligan will be nominated for her turn in ‘Maestro,’ which is fine. I would point out that Fantasia had to be equally good while singing and dancing wonderfully.”

Dave Karger
TCM; Author of “50 Oscar Nights”

1. Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
2. Emma Stone (“Poor Things”)
3. Annette Bening (“Nyad”)
4. Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”)
5. Sandra Hüller (“Anatomy of a Fall”)

“Like last year, there are enough powerhouse lead female turns this year to fill two rosters of five. Annette Bening and Emma Stone seem like locks, while Lily Gladstone, Carey Mulligan, and ‘Barbie’ lead Margot Robbie can’t be counted out. In a weaker year, ‘Anatomy of a Fall’s’ Sandra Hüller and ‘Past Lives’ ‘ Greta Lee would have no trouble making the list.”

Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”)
2. Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
3. Sandra Hüller (“Anatomy of a Fall”)
4. Annette Bening (“Nyad”)
5. Michelle Williams (“Showing Up”)

“This could be Lily Gladstone’s year for her beautifully restrained performance in ‘Killers of the Flower Moon.’ However, Sandra Hüller’s two roles—her excellent turn in ‘Anatomy of a Fall’ and her disturbing role as a Nazi wife in ‘Zone of Interest’ — should definitely put her in the running. Greta Lee’s sublimely sensitive portrayal in ‘Past Lives’ merits a nomination, as does the excellent Michelle Williams for her understated performance in ‘Showing Up.’ Less likely, but just as worthy, is Julia Louis-Dreyfus’s layered and bittersweet performance in ‘You Hurt My Feelings.’ ”

Anne Thompson
IndieWire

1. Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”)
2. Emma Stone (“Poor Things”)
3. Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
4. Sandra Hüller (“Anatomy of a Fall”)
5. Margot Robbie (“Barbie”)

“Lead actress is a two-way race between Emma Stone (‘Poor Things’) vying for her second Oscar as a woman with a transplanted brain, and two-time nominee Carey Mulligan (‘Maestro’) trying for her first as the glamorous wife of composer-conductor Leonard Bernstein.”

Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times

1. Emma Stone (“Poor Things”)
2. Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”)
3. Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
4. Sandra Hüller (“Anatomy of a Fall”)
5. Margot Robbie (“Barbie”)

“It’s immediately apparent from the moment Emma Stone lurches on screen as the Frankenstein-like creation in ‘Poor Things’ that we’re witnessing a fearless performance of the first order. And then it just keeps getting better, as Stone takes her character on a journey of liberation, moving from childlike curiosity to voracious desire, finally landing on enlightened independence that’s thrilling to witness. Give her that second Oscar already.”

online polls

Supporting actress

In 1920s rural Georgia, a strong-willed Black woman leans in to confront her potential father-in-law (not pictured).

In Round 1, panelist Dave Karger said once “The Color Purple” started screening, it could completely rejigger the supporting-actress category. Lo and behold, in Round 2, Danielle Brooks, who was tied for ninth place in Round 1, rockets to the top spot. Her castmate, Taraji P. Henson, likewise jumps from No. 7 to a tie for No. 4 — good enough to put her in the circle of projected nominees.

“ ‘The Color Purple’s’ phenomenal Danielle Brooks has become an instant frontrunner alongside ‘The Holdovers’ ’ breakout Da’Vine Joy Randolph,” says Swami Karger. “Brooks’ costar Taraji P. Henson also stands a chance of making the final five.”

In one of the strongest categories followed by the BuzzMeter, 13 performers still receive votes in Round 2, with passionate support for many of them.

“I still love Viola in ‘Air’ and every supporting female performance in ‘The Color Purple,’ ” says Tim Cogshell. “Erika Alexander is wonderful in ‘American Fiction,’ as I suspected she would be. Rosamund Pike was fun in ‘Saltburn,’ and Jodie Foster’s supporting performance in her film, ‘Nyad,’ is tuned perfectly in a film she might have walked away with.”

Karger continues, “Two-time Emmy winner Claire Foy could earn her first AMPAS recognition thanks to her moving turn in ‘All of Us Strangers.’ And two past lead-actress winners — Jodie Foster and Julianne Moore — are great bets for their supporting work in ‘Nyad’ and ‘May December,’ respectively.”

Notably, category confusion (or perhaps “category disagreement”) may be hampering voting for Lily Gladstone (the “Killers of the Flower Moon” star submitted as lead; here, she just misses the Top 5 as supporting) and Juliette Binoche (submitted as supporting for “The Taste of Things” for what is arguably a lead performance). Binoche, a previous winner, places 11th in Round-2 voting. Sandra Hüller could also be considered the lead actress in “The Zone of Interest,” if there is one; she places highly in the lead-actress category for her anchoring “Anatomy of a Fall.”

Some of the notable performances not making the second-round cut: Vanessa Kirby (“Napoleon”); Patti LuPone (“Beau Is Afraid”); Rachel McAdams, who just won the LAFCA prize for her work in “Are You There, God? It’s Me, Margaret”; Parker Posey (“Beau Is Afraid”); Rosamund Pike (“Saltburn”); Florence Pugh (“Oppenheimer”); Tracee Ellis Ross (“American Fiction”); Jurnee Smollett (“The Burial”); Leslie Uggams (“American Fiction”).

1. Danielle Brooks (“The Color Purple”)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”)
3. Jodie Foster (“Nyad”)
4. (tie) Emily Blunt (“Oppenheimer”)
4. (tie) Taraji P. Henson (“The Color Purple”)
6. (tie) Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
6. (tie) Claire Foy (“All of Us Strangers”)
8. Rachel McAdams (“Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret”)
9. (tie) Penélope Cruz (“Ferrari”)
9. (tie) Julianne Moore (“May December”)
11. (tie) Erika Alexander (“American Fiction”)
11. (tie) Juliette Binoche (“The Taste of Things”)
13. (tie) Viola Davis (“Air”)
13. (tie) Sandra Hüller (“The Zone of Interest”)

Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times

1. Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
2. Rachel McAdams (“Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret”)
3. Claire Foy (“All of Us Strangers”)
4. Juliette Binoche (“The Taste of Things”)
5. Jodie Foster (“Nyad”)

“I’m slotting Lily Gladstone in this race despite her lead actress campaign for ‘Killers of the Flower Moon,’ though it’s worth noting that hers isn’t the only performance that could conceivably fall into either race. Juliette Binoche is arguably a lead in ‘The Taste of Things.’ And in terms of screen time and emotional impact, I’d say Jodie Foster is on even footing with Annette Bening in ‘Nyad,’ a movie whose very message boils down to: Every supporting player is a star.”

Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. Danielle Brooks (“The Color Purple”)
2. Taraji P. Henson (“The Color Purple”)
3. Jodie Foster (“Nyad”)
4. Erika Alexander (“American Fiction”)
5. Viola Davis (“Air”)

“I still love Viola in ‘Air’ and every supporting female performance in ‘The Color Purple.’ Erika Alexander is wonderful in ‘American Fiction,’ as I suspected she would be. Rosamund Pike was fun in ‘Saltburn,’ and Jodie Foster’s supporting performance in her film, ‘Nyad,’ is tuned perfectly in a film she might have walked away with.”

Dave Karger
TCM; Author of “50 Oscar Nights”

1. Danielle Brooks (“The Color Purple”)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”)
3. Julianne Moore (“May December”)
4. Jodie Foster (“Nyad”)
5. Claire Foy (“All of Us Strangers”)

“ ‘The Color Purple’s’ phenomenal Danielle Brooks has become an instant frontrunner alongside ‘The Holdovers’ ’ breakout Da’Vine Joy Randolph. Brooks’ costar Taraji P. Henson also stands a chance of making the final five. Meanwhile, two-time Emmy winner Claire Foy could earn her first AMPAS recognition thanks to her moving turn in ‘All of Us Strangers.’ And two past lead-actress winners—Jodie Foster and Julianne Moore—are great bets for their supporting work in ‘Nyad’ and ‘May December,’ respectively.”

Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”)
2. Jodie Foster (“Nyad”)
3. Danielle Brooks (“The Color Purple”)
4. Taraji P. Henson (“The Color Purple”)
5. Claire Foy (“All of Us Strangers”)

“Da’Vine Joy Randolph has the edge here for her emotionally layered role as a grieving mom in ‘The Holdovers.’ If Apple had put Lily Gladstone in the supporting-actress category, she would have been the one to beat. It still will be a tough contest, with Jodie Foster as a likely nominee for her lovely portrayal of a supportive coach in ‘Nyad’ and Claire Foy as a traditional mom in ‘All of Us Strangers.’ ”

Anne Thompson
IndieWire

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”)
2. Emily Blunt (“Oppenheimer”)
3. Danielle Brooks (“The Color Purple”)
4. Penélope Cruz (“Ferrari”)
5. Sandra Hüller (“The Zone of Interest”)

“Supporting actress could go to Da’Vine Joy Randolph (‘The Holdovers’) as the maternal prep school cook who looks after a miserable professor (Paul Giamatti) and his equally unhappy student (Dominic Sessa) left at school over the Christmas holidays. Her rival could be Sandra Hüller, who chillingly plays the wife of the commandant of Auschwitz in ‘The Zone of Interest.’”

Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times

1. Danielle Brooks (“The Color Purple”)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”)
3. Jodie Foster (“Nyad”)
4. Emily Blunt (“Oppenheimer”)
5. Penélope Cruz (“Ferrari”)

“Da’Vine Joy Randolph broke out opposite Eddie Murphy in the 2019 comedy ‘Dolemite Is My Name’ and has spent the past four years proving that she isn’t bound by genre. Her understated turn as a cafeteria worker grieving the loss of her son in Alexander Payne’s bittersweet ‘The Holdovers’ showcases her dramatic talents in a way that makes her first Oscar nomination feel inevitable.”

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Supporting actor

An older, bespectacled man in formal wear frowns at someone; a bleach-blond guy in denim with six-pack abs smiles suavely

It’s a logjam in the nominees circle as a three-way tie puts seven in competition for the five slots.

It’s also “Barbenheimer” made flesh as Robert Downey Jr. and Ryan Gosling continue to hold the top two spots for giving, let’s face it, exactly the same performance in identical films. But in Round 2, RDJ moves ahead of Ken and his abs by a slim five-point margin.

“By mid-summer, many had already pegged this as a ‘Barbenheimer’ race: a showdown between Robert Downey Jr. at his Marvel-liberated best and Ryan Gosling at his most self-mockingly hilarious,” says Justin Chang. “Neither would be an undeserving winner, though take them out of the running and you’d still have an incredibly rich field.”

“He’s not just Ken,” says Glenn Whipp of Gosling. “He’s a revelation.”

Claudia Puig says, “It seems probable that it will be a contest between Robert De Niro (who’s won twice before and been nominated 8 times) and twice-nominated Ryan Gosling as the inimitably hilarious Ken in the summer phenomenon ‘Barbie.’ He’s never won and this could be his year.”

Dave Karger says, “Mark Ruffalo is effectively hammy in ‘Poor Things,’ while breakout Charles Melton more than holds his own opposite Oscar winners Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore in ‘May December.’ Special mention to Glenn Howerton, who walks away with ‘Blackberry,’ thanks to his transformative performance.”

Tim Cogshell says, “In addition to giving a good lead performance in ‘Rustin,’ Colman Domingo is excellent in ‘The Color Purple.’ But the performance I would love to see win is Sterling K. Brown’s in ‘American Fiction.’ ”

Some of note who did not receive votes this round: Willem Dafoe (“Poor Things”), Noah Galvin (“Theater Camp”), Matthew Goode (“Freud’s Last Session”), Joseph Gordon-Levitt (“Flora and Son”), Tommy Lee Jones (“The Burial”), Marshawn Lynch (“Bottoms”), Jonathan Majors (“Creed III”), Paul Mescal (“All of Us Strangers”), Chris Messina (“Air”), Peter Sarsgaard (“Memory”), Liev Schreiber (“Golda”), Jeffrey Wright (“Rustin”).

1. Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”)
2. Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”)
3. Robert De Niro (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
4. Mark Ruffalo (“Poor Things”)
5. (tie) Jamie Bell (“All of Us Strangers”)
5. (tie) Charles Melton (“May December”)
5. (tie) Dominic Sessa (“The Holdovers”)
8. (tie) Sterling K. Brown (“American Fiction”)
8. (tie) Colman Domingo (“The Color Purple”)
10. John Magaro (“Past Lives”)

Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times

1. Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”)
2. Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”)
3. Mark Ruffalo (“Poor Things”)
4. John Magaro (“Past Lives”)
5. Jamie Bell (“All of Us Strangers”)

“By mid-summer, many had already pegged this as a ‘Barbenheimer’ race: a showdown between Robert Downey Jr. at his Marvel-liberated best and Ryan Gosling at his most self-mockingly hilarious. Neither would be an undeserving winner, though take them out of the running and you’d still have an incredibly rich field. It feels wrong to leave out Paul Mescal ‘All of Us Strangers’), Willem Dafoe (‘Poor Things’), Glenn Howerton (‘BlackBerry’), Charles Melton (‘May December’) and Chris Messina (‘Air’), among others.”

Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. Mark Ruffalo (“Poor Things”)
2. Dominic Sessa (“The Holdovers”)
3. Colman Domingo (“The Color Purple”)
4. Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”)
5. Sterling K. Brown (“American Fiction”)

“I still deeply appreciate the performances of Ryan Gosling in ‘Barbie’ and the pop-up performance of Ben Affleck in his own film ‘Air.’ In addition to giving a good lead performance in ‘Rustin,’ Colman Domingo is excellent in ‘The Color Purple.’ But the performance I would love to see win is Sterling K. Brown’s in ‘American Fiction.’ ”

Dave Karger
TCM; Author of “50 Oscar Nights”

1. Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”)
2. Robert De Niro (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
3. Charles Melton (“May December”)
4. Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”)
5. Mark Ruffalo (“Poor Things”)

“Two respected Roberts (Downey and De Niro) lead the pack here, while ‘Barbie’ scene-stealer Ryan Gosling should easily score his third career nomination. Beyond that, it’s a bit tougher to predict. Mark Ruffalo is effectively hammy in ‘Poor Things,’ while breakout Charles Melton more than holds his own opposite Oscar winners Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore in ‘May December.’ Special mention to Glenn Howerton, who walks away with ‘Blackberry,’ thanks to his transformative performance.”

Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”)
2. Robert De Niro (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
3. Jamie Bell (“All of Us Strangers”)
4. Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”)
5. Sterling K. Brown (“American Fiction”)

“It seems probable that it will be a contest between Robert De Niro (who’s won twice before and been nominated 8 times) and twice-nominated Ryan Gosling as the inimitably hilarious Ken in the summer phenomenon ‘Barbie.’ He’s never won and this could be his year. Then again, comic performances rarely win. More serious, and also worthy, are Jamie Bell as a straitlaced father from the ‘80s in ‘All of Us Strangers’ and Robert Downey Jr. for his nearly unrecognizable turn in ‘Oppenheimer.’ ”

Anne Thompson
IndieWire

1. Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”)
2. Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”)
3. Robert De Niro (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
4. Mark Ruffalo (“Poor Things”)
5. Sterling K. Brown (“American Fiction”)

“Supporting actor is a tight contest between ‘Oppenheimer’ villain Robert Downey, Jr. and ‘Barbie’ scene-stealer Ryan Gosling as Ken. Does anyone else have a chance? Watch out for Mark Ruffalo in ‘Poor Things,’ who surprises in a slapstick comedic role as an older rake who gives the rapidly maturing Bella (Emma Stone) the continental (and sexual) education she seeks — and then falls for her.”

Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times

1. Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”)
2. Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”)
3. Robert De Niro (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
4. Mark Ruffalo (“Poor Things”)
5. Charles Melton (“May December”)

“Ryan Gosling’s ‘Ken-ergy’ played an essential part in the success of Greta Gerwig’s subversive, self-aware, kind-of-sort-of-but-not-really Mattel commercial ‘Barbie.’ Gosling sings. Gosling dances. He also rollerblades, embraces the patriarchy, battles insecurities and grapples with the meaning of life itself. Gosling is game for it all, the earnestness, the silliness, the ‘literal’ muscularity. He’s not just Ken. He’s a revelation.”

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Original screenplay

A teen student, a middle-aged teacher and a middle-aged cook are thrown together for the holidays in the early '70s

With “Barbie” being plucked from this category and moved to the adapted competition by the academy, the race suddenly feels wide open. Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach’s script had topped the BuzzPeople’s picks in both Round 1 and Round 2, though previous winner Alexander Payne‘s long-percolating “The Holdovers” had closed within three points of it and Celine Song‘s soulful “Past Lives” was a mere four back.

“Assuming voters abide by the studio’s campaign, Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach’s witty ‘Barbie’ screenplay will be the one to beat here,” Dave Karger had said — but with the big doll gone, what benefits?

Claudia Puig says, apart from “Barbie,” “I predict a three-way contest between Celine Song’s ‘Past Lives,’ Nicole Holofcener’s ‘You Hurt My Feelings’ and Justine Triet for her French courtroom drama ‘Anatomy of a Fall.’ May the best woman win.” “Anatomy” has been racking up major wins throughout awards season.

In the present, though, “Past Lives” may have the most BuzzMeter ardor behind it. Glenn Whipp says, “You’ll swoon for it and think, to paraphrase a wise woman, that somehow heartbreak feels good in a movie like this.” He’s not kidding.

Others receiving heartfelt endorsements include “The Holdovers” and “Dream Scenario”: “Kristoffer Borgil’s ‘Dream Scenario’ is a complicated and thoughtful exploration of issues in the real world (cancel culture among them) that show up in our dreams — and everybody’s nightmares,” says Tim Cogshell.

Perhaps “Barbie’s” departure could open a nom slot for Todd Haynes’ dark spin on the Mary Kay Letourneau story, “May December,” Borgli’s wildly imaginative “Dream Scenario,” “Promising Young Woman” winner Emerald Fennell’s buzzy, bonkers class satire “Saltburn” or Yuji Sakamoto’s Cannes-winning script for Hirozaku Kore-eda’s heartfelt puzzle movie, “Monster.”

1. “Barbie” — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach
2. “The Holdovers” — David Hemingson
3. “Past Lives” — Celine Song
4. “Anatomy of a Fall” — Justin Triet, Arthur Harari
5. “Maestro” — Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer
6. “You Hurt My Feelings” — Nicole Holofcener
7. (tie) “May December” — Samy Burch, Alex Mechanik
7. (tie) “Dream Scenario” — Kristoffer Borgli
8. “Showing Up” — Jon Raymond, Kelly Reichardt

Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times

1. “Past Lives” — Celine Song
2. “Anatomy of a Fall” — Justin Triet, Arthur Harari
3. “May December” — Samy Burch, Alex Mechanik
4. “Showing Up” — Jon Raymond, Kelly Reichardt
5. “Barbie” — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach

“It’s been great seeing more non-English-language scripts pop up in this category over the years, including ‘Roma,’ ‘The Worst Person in the World’ and one well-deserved winner, ‘Parasite.’ In addition to ‘Anatomy of a Fall,’ which admittedly has more than a smattering of English dialogue, it’d be lovely to see movies like Christian Petzold’s ‘Afire’ (German) and Cristian Mungiu’s ‘R.M.N.’ (Romanian, Hungarian, German, English and French) in the mix — lovely, but unlikely.”

Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. “The Holdovers” — David Hemingson
2. “Dream Scenario” — Kristoffer Borgli
3. “Past Lives” — Celine Song
4. “Barbie” — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach
5. “Maestro” — Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer

“Kristoffer Borgil’s ‘Dream Scenario’ is a complicated and thoughtful exploration of issues in the real world (cancel culture among them) that show up in our dreams — and everybody’s nightmares. David Hemingson’s screenplay for ‘The Holdovers’ and ‘Past Lives’ from Celine Song are still among my favorites. ‘Maestro’ is certainly a favorite, but not mine. Of the things that narrative might have been about, it chooses the least interesting aspects of Lenny Bernstein’s life.”

Dave Karger
TCM; Author of “50 Oscar Nights”

1. “Barbie” — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach
2. “The Holdovers” — David Hemingson
3. “Maestro” — Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer
4. “Past Lives” — Celine Song
5. “May December” — Samy Burch, Alex Mechanik

“Assuming voters abide by the studio’s campaign, Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach’s witty ‘Barbie’ screenplay will be the one to beat here, alongside more intimate scripts like ‘Maestro,’ ‘The Holdovers’ and ‘Past Lives.’ For the fifth slot, I’m rooting for the riveting and complex courtroom drama ‘Anatomy of a Fall,’ which remains, in my mind, the most thought-provoking film of the year ... but I fear it will be left out.”

Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. “You Hurt My Feelings” — Nicole Holofcener
2. “Barbie” — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach
3. “The Holdovers” — David Hemingson
4. “Anatomy of a Fall” — Justin Triet, Arthur Harari
5. “Past Lives” — Celine Song

“I predict a three-way contest between Celine Song’s ‘Past Lives,’ Nicole Holofcener’s ‘You Hurt My Feelings’ and Justine Triet for her French courtroom drama ‘Anatomy of a Fall.’ May the best woman win. And never underestimate the formidable power of the ‘Barbie’ juggernaut and her much-admired screenwriters, Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach.”

Anne Thompson
IndieWire

1. “Barbie” — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach
2. “The Holdovers” — David Hemingson
3. “Anatomy of a Fall” — Justin Triet, Arthur Harari
4. “Maestro” — Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer
5. “Past Lives” — Celine Song

“Even though it’s a comedy, ‘Barbie’ could run away with the win for the fearlessly imaginative Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, but playwright-turned-writer-director Celine Song’s indie breakout ‘Past Lives,’ and TV scribe David Hemingson’s poignant Christmas comedy ‘The Holdovers’ are also competitive.“

Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times

1. “Past Lives” — Celine Song
2. “Barbie” — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach
3. “Anatomy of a Fall” — Justin Triet, Arthur Harari
4. “The Holdovers” — David Hemingson
5. “Maestro” — Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer

“Celine Song’s romantic drama ‘Past Lives’ launched a thousand conversations after its closing credits. It’s a thought-provoking meditation on love and destiny, of choices made, roads not taken, regret and relief. So, yes, you’ll swoon for it and think, to paraphrase a wise woman, that somehow heartbreak feels good in a movie like this.”

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Adapted screenplay

A blond, middle-aged man in a suit with no tie (Christopher Nolan) seen through glass with a translucent reflection

Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” screenplay manages to be epic and intimate at the same time (and also manages to almost completely dodge the fallout — literal and figurative — of the protagonist’s crowning accomplishment, though it is finally scheduled for a Japanese release next year) and increases its lead to nine points in Round 2.

Of course, that happened before the academy swerved from Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbauch’s “Barbie” submission as an original screenplay (and the WGA’s agreement to let it compete in that category for its awards) to drop it into the adapted category, making a giant-doll-sized splash in the contender pool. Swami Dave Karger, who predicted the post-Round 1 supporting-actress shakeup that could — and did — lead to previously out-of-the-money Danielle Brooks vaulting to No. 1, had said of these Round 2 rankings, “Of course, there’s also a chance ‘Barbie’ could end up here if the writers’ branch ignores the suggested original category placement.” If you’re looking for stock tips, just think of Mr. Karger and presumably he’ll pluck your brainwaves from the ether.

So a category already teeming with some of the season’s most talked-about contenders in any category — “Oppenheimer,” “Poor Things,” “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “American Fiction,” “All of Us Strangers,” “The Zone of Interest” among them — now welcomes the year’s biggest phenomenon both culturally and at the box office. And it should be mentioned, also “Origin,” previous nominee Ava DuVernay’s riff on the writing and ideas of “Caste: The Origins of Our Discontents” by Isabel Wilkerson, as well as on the life of the author — newly moved to the adapted category as well. That was another one the WGA had agreed to consider original, though our Tim Cogshell had anticipated that move and voted accordingly.

As to the Round 2 rankings, panelists cite “Oppenheimer’s” “astonishing biographical compression” (Justin Chang) and call it a “historic tour-de-force” (Anne Thompson). Some Buzzpeople see a two-way race between “Oppenheimer” and “Killers of the Flower Moon,” others “Oppenheimer” and “Poor Things.”

Thompson says of the latter matchup, “Nolan’s blockbuster may have the advantage, as Lanthimos pushes the edge of the envelope with his feminist and overtly sexual coming-of-age tale.”

Counterpoint: “If there’s any justice,” says Claudia Puig, “this Oscar will go to ‘All of Us Strangers’ for Andrew Haigh’s brilliant adaptation of the novel by Taichi Yamada.”

“American Fiction,” first-time feature writer and director Cord Jefferson‘s adaptation of Percival Everett‘s novel “Erasure,” emerges as a panel favorite, climbing to No. 3 this round:

Karger says, “Don’t ignore Cord Jefferson’s searing, satirical work on Toronto festival winner ‘American Fiction.’”

“Cord Jefferson’s ‘American Fiction’ has won audience awards from the Toronto, Mill Valley and Middleburg film festivals, so it must be doing something right,” writes Glenn Whipp. “It’s silly, sharp, heartfelt and, yes, the best kind of crowd-pleaser.”

Tim Cogshell says, “This is the most identifiable narrative in an original screenplay I’ve seen this year. These people, living these lives, I know. And that makes it interesting to me as a ‘real’ person living an ordinary life not unlike these people. It resonates greatly.”

1. “Oppenheimer” — Christopher Nolan
2. “Killers of the Flower Moon” — Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese
3. (tie) “Poor Things” — Tony McNamara
3. (tie) “American Fiction” — Cord Jefferson
5. “The Zone of Interest” — Jonathan Glazer
6. (tie) “All of Us Strangers” — Andrew Haigh
6. (tie) “The Color Purple” — Marcus Gardley
8. “Origin” — Ava DuVernay

Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times

1. “Oppenheimer” — Christopher Nolan
2. “All of Us Strangers” — Andrew Haigh
3. “Poor Things” — Tony McNamara
4. “The Zone of Interest” — Jonathan Glazer
5. “Killers of the Flower Moon” — Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese

“It’s hard to choose a favorite in this category — do you go with the staggering biographical compression of ‘Oppenheimer’? The adroit reshufflings of narrative and perspective in ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ and ‘Poor Things’? I don’t know, but I hope voters take a moment to not only watch ‘The Zone of Interest,’ but also take a look at Martin Amis’ much plottier, prosier novel — and appreciate the ruthless skill with which Jonathan Glazer pared nearly all of it away.”

Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. “American Fiction” — Cord Jefferson
2. “The Color Purple” — Marcus Gardley
3. “Origin” — Ava DuVernay
4. “Oppenheimer” — Christopher Nolan
5. “Killers of the Flower Moon” — Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese

“I still expect that Roth and Scorsese will still be nominated for ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ and Nolan for ‘Oppenheimer.’ Marcus Gardley’s reconception of ‘The Color Purple’ (both the novel by Alice Walker and the musical’s book by Marsha Norman) is exquisite. Still, my favorite adapted screenplay is ‘American Fiction’ by Cord Jefferson and Percival Everett. This is the most identifiable narrative in an original screenplay I’ve seen this year. These people, living these lives, I know. And that makes it interesting to me as a ‘real’ person living an ordinary life not unlike these people. It resonates greatly.”

Dave Karger
TCM; Author of “50 Oscar Nights”

1. “Oppenheimer” — Christopher Nolan
2. “Killers of the Flower Moon” — Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese
3. “Poor Things” — Tony McNamara
4. “The Zone of Interest” — Jonathan Glazer
5. “American Fiction” — Cord Jefferson

“Best picture frontrunners ‘Oppenheimer’ and ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ are automatic nominees here, while more adventurous voters will support ‘Poor Things’ and ‘The Zone of Interest.’ Of course, there’s also a chance ‘Barbie’ could end up here if the writers’ branch ignores the suggested original category placement. And don’t ignore Cord Jefferson’s searing, satirical work on Toronto festival winner ‘American Fiction.’”

Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. “American Fiction” — Cord Jefferson
2. “Killers of the Flower Moon” — Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese
3. “Oppenheimer” — Christopher Nolan
4. “The Zone of Interest” — Jonathan Glazer
5. “Poor Things” — Tony McNamara

“If there’s any justice, this Oscar will go to ‘All of Us Strangers’ for Andrew Haigh’s brilliant adaptation of the novel by Taichi Yamada. But the cleverly satirical ‘American Fiction’ will surely be a major contender, as will the much-acclaimed critical favorites ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ and ‘Oppenheimer,’ both adapted from bestselling books.”

Anne Thompson
IndieWire

1. “Oppenheimer” — Christopher Nolan
2. “Poor Things” — Tony McNamara
3. “The Zone of Interest” — Jonathan Glazer
4. “Killers of the Flower Moon” — Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese
5. “American Fiction” — Cord Jefferson

“It’s between Christopher Nolan’s historic tour-de-force ‘Oppenheimer’ and Yorgos Lanthimos’ lavishly imagined period fantasy ‘Poor Things.’ Nolan’s blockbuster may have the advantage, as Lanthimos pushes the edge of the envelope with his feminist and overtly sexual coming-of-age tale.”

Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times

1. “Oppenheimer” — Christopher Nolan
2. “Killers of the Flower Moon” — Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese
3. “Poor Things” — Tony McNamara
4. “American Fiction” — Cord Jefferson
5. “The Zone of Interest” — Jonathan Glazer

“Cord Jefferson’s ‘American Fiction’ has won audience awards from the Toronto, Mill Valley and Middleburg film festivals, so it must be doing something right. Jefferson, who wrote and directed the film, packs a lot into its two hours. It’s a satire on the book world and Hollywood adaptations as well as wry drama about a Black college professor and author fuming about phonies and the commodification of Black narratives. It’s silly, sharp, heartfelt and, yes, the best kind of crowd-pleaser.”

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International feature

A 1940s family enjoys a picnic by a lake. The father is Rudolf Höss, commandant of the Auschwitz concentration camp.

In recent years, there has often been an international-feature contender that came to be seen as inevitable — “Roma,” “Parasite,” “All Quiet on the Western Front” among them. Jonathan Glazer’s “The Zone of Interest” appears to have taken that mantle this year — or so says the panel — as the deadpan study of the banality of evil is one of only two consensus picks in the second round of the BuzzMeter. Not that the Los Angeles Film Critics Assn.‘s picks often align with the Oscars, but “Zone” just won that organization’s prizes for best picture, director and music, and Sandra Hüller won for her supporting work in the film along with her lead performance in “Anatomy of a Fall.”

“ ‘The Zone of Interest,’ which is also a strong contender for best picture, will certainly become the United Kingdom’s third-ever nominee in this category and quite possibly its first winner,” says Dave Karger.

Anne Thompson says, “Nothing will catch up with it.”

But beyond that sense of inevitability, a number of other international entries have passionate support from the panel.

Tim Cogshell says, “I’m a fan of ‘The Delinquents’ out of a very turbulent Argentina and ‘The Taste of Things,’ the French submission from director Tran Anh Hung. The film has a wonderful ‘Babette’s Feast’ ‘-like quality that one can almost taste as deeply as one feels the thoughtful narrative.”

Seeing “lots of worthy possibilities,” Claudia Puig cites “Finland’s tale of working-class lovers, ‘Fallen Leaves’ and Mexico’s poignant family drama ‘Tótem,’ ‘Perfect Days,’ a poetic slice-of-life from Japan and either the French gastronomic feast for the eyes, ‘The Taste of Things’ or the timely German classroom drama The Teachers’ Lounge’ ” as “Zone” alternatives.

Meanwhile, Justin Chang would have you “Spare a thought for Romania,” as he lists the many worthy titles the country has submitted in the last 20 years, all for nought. “I’d like to think things will go differently for Radu Jude’s extraordinary ‘Do Not Expect Too Much From the End of the World,’ but do not expect too much from the motion picture academy.”

And Glenn Whipp calls “The Taste of Things,” which holds on to the No. 2 spot in Round 2, “a sumptuous romance ... [starring] the legendary Juliette Binoche.” In choosing to submit this film over its other heralded candidate, “Anatomy of a Fall” (which might also have suffered some political pushback), Whipp says “France chose France — or, at least, all the things you associate with France: Food, love, Binoche.”

1. “The Zone of Interest” (United Kingdom)
2. “The Taste of Things” (France)
3. “Fallen Leaves” (Finland)
4. “Tótem” (Mexico)
5. “The Teachers’ Lounge” (Germany)
6. “Perfect Days” (Japan)
7. “Society of the Snow” (Spain)
8. (tie) “The Delinquents” (Argentina)
8. (tie) “Do Not Expect Too Much from the End of the World” (Romania)

Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times

1. “The Zone of Interest” (United Kingdom)
2. “The Taste of Things” (France)
3. “Tótem” (Mexico)
4. “Fallen Leaves” (Finland)
5. “Do Not Expect Too Much from the End of the World” (Romania)

“Spare a thought for Romania: Has any other country submitted films of such consistently high quality over the past two decades and been greeted with such indifference from voters? A rare nomination for 2020’s ‘Collective’ aside, it’s ridiculous that among ‘The Death of Mr. Lazarescu,’ ‘4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days,’ ‘Police, Adjective,’ ‘Beyond the Hills,’ ‘Aferim!,’ ‘Sieranevada,’ ‘I Do Not Care If We Go Down in History as Barbarians’ and ‘Bad Luck Banging or Loony Porn,’ not one succeeded in cracking the final five. I’d like to think things will go differently for Radu Jude’s extraordinary ‘Do Not Expect Too Much From the End of the World,’ but do not expect too much from the motion picture academy.”

Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. “The Zone of Interest” (United Kingdom)
2. “The Taste of Things” (France)
3. “Fallen Leaves” (Finland)
4. “Tótem” (Mexico)
5. “The Delinquents” (Argentina)

“ ‘The Zone of Interest’, from the UK, leads in this category alongside ‘Fallen Leaves,’ the Finnish film from the quirky director Aki Kaurismaki. I’m a fan of ‘The Delinquents’ out of a very turbulent Argentina and ‘The Taste of Things,’ the French submission from director Tran Anh Hung. The film has a wonderful ‘Babette’s Feast’ ‘-like quality that one can almost taste as deeply as one feels the thoughtful narrative.”

Dave Karger
TCM; Author of “50 Oscar Nights”

1. “The Zone of Interest” (United Kingdom)
2. “The Taste of Things” (France)
3. “Fallen Leaves” (Finland)
4. “The Teachers’ Lounge” (Germany)
5. “Society of the Snow” (Spain)

“ ‘The Zone of Interest,’ which is also a strong contender for best picture, will certainly become the United Kingdom’s third-ever nominee in this category and quite possibly its first winner. The rest of the roster is a crap shoot: France’s ‘The Taste of Things’ was a favorite amongst international critics at Cannes earlier this year, while beloved filmmaker Aki Kaurismaki (‘Fallen Leaves’) was last represented in this category 20 years ago.”

Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. “The Zone of Interest” (United Kingdom)
2. “Tótem” (Mexico)
3. “The Teachers’ Lounge” (Germany)
4. “Society of the Snow” (Spain)
5. “Perfect Days” (Japan)

“It’s a particularly good category this year, with lots of worthy possibilities: The likeliest nominees are Finland’s tale of working-class lovers, ‘Fallen Leaves’ and Mexico’s poignant family drama ‘Tótem,’ the harrowing German-language drama ‘The Zone of Interest,’ ‘Perfect Days,’ a poetic slice-of-life from Japan and either the French gastronomic feast for the eyes, ‘The Taste of Things’ or the timely German classroom drama The Teachers’ Lounge.’ ”

Anne Thompson
IndieWire

1. “The Zone of Interest” (United Kingdom)
2. “The Taste of Things” (France)
3. “The Teachers’ Lounge” (Germany)
4. “Perfect Days” (Japan)
5. “Society of the Snow” (Spain)

“The international-feature race has an early frontrunner: Jonathan Glazer’s German-language Holocaust drama ‘The Zone of Interest,’ the UK entry. Nothing will catch up with it.”

Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times

1. “The Zone of Interest” (United Kingdom)
2. “The Taste of Things” (France)
3. “Fallen Leaves” (Finland)
4. “Perfect Days” (Japan)
5. “Tótem” (Mexico)

“France had to choose between two great films for its international feature submission – ‘Anatomy of a Fall’ and ‘The Taste of Things.’ It went with the latter, a sumptuous romance about the relationship between a renowned chef and his cook, his muse, his life (and if he had his way, his wife), played by the legendary Juliette Binoche. In short, France chose France – or, at least, all the things you associate with France: Food, love, Binoche.”

Animated feature

A still from "Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio" in which the main character performs in a stage show.

The big news is, of course, the return of the dean of Japanese animation, Hayao Miyazaki, with a film erupting with beautiful imagination, “The Boy and the Heron.” It is one of only two consensus No. 1 picks in Round 2 of the BuzzMeter.

“ ‘The Boy and the Heron’ certainly feels like a farewell; a meditation on resilience in the face of loss as well as a summation of the 82-year-old legend’s career,” says Glenn Whipp.

But there are other major contenders, including the sequel “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse,” which many viewers and critics felt surpassed its Oscar-winning predecessor (and which it definitely did at the box office); a complete rejuvenation of the “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles” franchise; the beautifully rendered and often hilarious “Nimona,” which manages to take great liberties with its source material while remaining true to its heart; and “Robot Dreams,” which effortlessly flows from wacky to wistful.

Claudia Puig sees a two-way race: “Think spiders and herons facing off. It will be ‘Spider-Verse’ vs (spiderversus) Hayao Miyazaki’s latest masterpiece, ‘The Boy and the Heron.’ Either one is likely to trounce the rest of the competition.”

“ ‘‘The Boy and the Heron’ is another deeply sophisticated work from master animator Hayao Miyazaki, but, truth be told,” says Tim Cogshell, “I’m a bigger fan of ‘Spider-Verse’ and ‘Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles’ both of which are not deeply sophisticated, but awesome! I hope one of them wins; neither will.”

Dave Karger says, “Netflix’s boundary-pushing ‘Nimona,’ featuring several LGBTQ+ characters and irreverent humor, would be a welcome addition to the category.”

“Any year that brings us the latest final film from Hayao Miyazaki is a good one,” says Justin Chang, admitting he hasn’t seen “nearly enough feature-length animation this year. I’m pretty sure I didn’t see ‘PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie,’ although after a while, the near-hourly PR emails made me think that I had.”

1. “The Boy and the Heron”
2. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
3. “Elemental”
4. “Nimona”
5. (tie) “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem”
5. (tie) “Suzume”
7. (tie) “Robot Dreams”
7. (tie) “They Shot the Piano Player”
9. “Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget”

Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times

1. “The Boy and the Heron”
2. “Suzume”
3. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
4. “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem”
5. “Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget”

“Any year that brings us the latest final film from Hayao Miyazaki is a good one, and it’s heartening that a number of studio titles (including ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ and ‘Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem’) have their strengths as well. As usual, though, I haven’t seen nearly enough feature-length animation this year. I’m pretty sure I didn’t see ‘PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie,’ although after a while, the near-hourly PR emails made me think that I had.”

Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”\
2. “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem”
3. “The Boy and the Heron”
4. “They Shot the Piano Player”
5. “Elemental”

“ ‘‘The Boy and the Heron’ is another deeply sophisticated work from master animator Hayao Miyazaki, but, truth be told, I’m a bigger fan of ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ and ‘Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles’ both of which are not deeply sophisticated, but awesome! I hope one of them wins; neither will.”

Dave Karger
TCM; Author of “50 Oscar Nights”

1. “The Boy and the Heron”
2. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
3. “Elemental”
4. “They Shot the Piano Player”
5. “Nimona”

“Acclaimed filmmaker Hayao Miyazaki’s final feature, ‘The Boy and the Heron,’ leads the way here alongside the latest Spider-Verse entry. Disney will certainly be represented by either ‘Elemental’ or ‘Wish,’ while Netflix’s boundary-pushing ‘Nimona,’ featuring several LGBTQ+ characters and irreverent humor, would be a welcome addition to the category.”

Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. “The Boy and the Heron”
2. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
3. “Nimona”
4. “Elemental”
5. “Robot Dreams”

“Think spiders and herons facing off. It will be ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ vs (spiderversus) Hayao Miyazaki’s latest masterpiece, ‘The Boy and the Heron.’ Either one is likely to trounce the rest of the competition. Also likely to be nominated is Pixar’s ‘Elemental.’ Probably in the mix will be the latest installment of ‘Chicken Run.’ Rounding out the category will be nostalgic favorites ‘Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles’ up against ‘Super Mario Bros.’.”

Anne Thompson
IndieWire

1. “The Boy and the Heron”
2. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
3. “Elemental”
4. “Nimona”
5. “Robot Dreams”

“ ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse,’ the blockbuster sequel that outperformed the Oscar-winning original, could win again. Or, Oscar voters could choose to reward the return of the great Hayao Miyazaki (the Oscar-winning ‘Spirited Away’) for directing the critical fave ‘The Boy and the Heron.’ ”

Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times

1. “The Boy and the Heron”
2. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
3. “Elemental”
4. “Nimona”
5. “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem”

“Hayao Miyazaki announced his retirement a decade ago following the release of his eleventh film, ‘The Wind Rises.’ It wasn’t the first time Miyazaki had expressed a desire to step away from feature animation and, given that history, it’s not surprising that it didn’t stick. His latest, ‘The Boy and the Heron,’ certainly feels like a farewell, though, a meditation on resilience in the face of loss as well as a summation of the 82-year-old legend’s career.”