Our 2023 Oscar BuzzMeter predicts the Oscar winners!

Three top contenders to win the 2023 adapted-screenplay Oscar: "Living"; "Women Talking"; "All Quiet on the Western Front"

Published Nov. 11, 2022 Updated March 9, 2023 9:20 AM PT

Here we go — last looks at the BuzzMeter crystal ball predictions of who and what will win the 2023 Oscars. And get this — now the polls are open for every category!

The swirling morass of movie-addicted humanity that is Ye Olde Vat of BuzzMeter has sampled the vitals of awards season, gathered its chicken bones and made its prognostications — boldly before the guilds have spoken, by the way — and herewith shares them with you, free of charge. You’re so lucky! And while this year’s Round 3 is marked by an unusual number of consensus picks (six out of 10 categories, with two others just a few points away from joining them), it also contains some very interesting, close races and narratives.

Each round, the panel ranks picks in each category using a points system (most points for top choice) that yields a fair picture of what their roiling group mind believes are the best bets. Think you can do better? Fill out your own slate in our online polls for every one of the 10 Oscar categories we follow. This week, we spotlight our awards geniuses’ picks for a category that looks to be firming up its favorite, but may be “quietly” primed for an upset: adapted screenplay.

Your 2023 Oscars BuzzMeter panel: Six veteran film journalists.

Adapted screenplay

Mennonite women gather in a barn to discuss their future in the colony after horrific abuse in "Women Talking."

Justice for Sarah Polley!

Sure, she was snubbed in the directing category; sure, the BuzzMeter ranks her film’s chances to win best picture as unlikely; sure, her superb “Women Talking” ensemble was shut out in the noms.

But the BuzzMeter has her as a near-consensus pick to win this trophy for her intelligent, meaningful, lively adaptation of Miriam Toews’ novel “Women Talking.” How close is she to a consensus pick? The one panelist who doesn’t have her first, has her second (behind legendary novelist Kazuo Ishiguro for his seamless adaptation of the Akira Kurosawa-co-written screenplay for “Living”). Polley’s wins at the WGA and Scripter awards would seem to bode well for her Oscar chances as well.

Several panelists see this category as the academy’s chance to atone for its sins of omission in the other categories in which “Women Talking “ was eligible: “[It’s] essentially voters’ only real chance to recognize Sarah Polley’s impressive work with a win,” says Dave Karger; Claudia Puig sums up the feeling of several panelists by saying, “ ‘Women Talking’ should have gotten other nominations — director Sarah Polley was woefully snubbed, as were several excellent performances —so academy voters will reward it for its standout script.”

Polley’s main competition at this point is probably director Edward Berger and co-writers Ian Stokell and Lesley Paterson’s adaptation for nine-time nominee “All Quiet on the Western Front.” The script won the BAFTA despite the adaptation’s less-than-rapturous response in the film’s home country of Germany, where the source material is extremely well-known to the general public.

Contenders not receiving nominations include: “After Yang”; “Avatar: The Way of Water”; “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”; “ Bones & All”; “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”; “Marcel the Shell With Shoes On”; “She Said.”

1. “Women Talking”

2. “Living”

3. “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”

4. “All Quiet on the Western Front”

5. “Top Gun: Maverick”

Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times

1. “Women Talking”
2. “Living”
3. “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
4. “All Quiet on the Western Front”
5. “Top Gun: Maverick”

“Not the strongest year for this category, despite the strengths of Rian Johnson’s inventively plotted ‘Glass Onion’ script and Kazuo Ishiguro’s exquisite work transplanting ‘Ikiru’ to London in ‘Living.’ Still, this is the only category in which the best-picture-nominated ‘Women Talking’ stands a chance at winning, and the industry’s high regard for Sarah Polley — who likely received more than a few votes from the directors branch as well — should be enough to tilt the scales.”

Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. “Living”
2. “Women Talking”
3. “Top Gun: Maverick”
4. “All Quiet on the Western Front”
5. “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”

“Hands down, the best-adapted screenplay nominated is ‘Women Talking,’ written and directed by Sarah Polley. It’s piercing and poetic, biting and beautiful. It should and will likely win. ‘Living’ is my favorite film of the season, so I very much appreciate Kazuo Ishiguro’s adaption of the Tolstoy novella (‘The Death of Ivan Ilyich’) through the Akira Kurosawa film (‘Ikiru’ - 1952). I cannot fathom the academy awarding ‘Top Gun,’ though I can see the hit film winning something. The ‘Glass Onion’ screenplay is about as worthy here as ‘Triangle of Sadness’ is in the best-picture category.”

Dave Karger
TCM & Entertainment Weekly

1. “Women Talking”
2. “All Quiet on the Western Front”
3. “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
4. “Living”
5. “Top Gun: Maverick”

“This strikes me as a race between ‘All Quiet on the Western Front’ and ‘Women Talking.’ ‘All Quiet’ stands to be recognized in the international category (and possibly one or two crafts as well), while this category is essentially voters’ only real chance to recognize Sarah Polley’s impressive work with a win. So I’m going with her by a nose.”

Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. “Women Talking”
2. “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
3. “Living”
4. “All Quiet on the Western Front”
5. “Top Gun: Maverick”

“The Oscar will most likely go to the deeply moving, thoughtful and riveting ‘Women Talking,’ though the wittily entertaining ‘Glass Onion’ also had a terrific script. But ‘Women’ should have gotten other nominations — director Sarah Polley was woefully snubbed, as were several excellent performances —so voters will reward it for its standout script.”

Anne Thompson
IndieWire

1. “Women Talking”
2. “Living”
3. “Top Gun: Maverick”
4. “All Quiet on the Western Front”
5. “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”

“Sarah Polley’s feminist ensemble drama ‘Women Talking’ landed nominations for picture and adapted screenplay, where it is favored to win. Kazuo Ishiguro is her main rival for ‘Living,’ his elegant adaptation of Akira Kurosawa’s end-of-life tearjerker ‘Ikiru,’ which Ishiguro set in the same year (1953) but moved from Japan to England.”

Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times

1. “Women Talking”
2. “Living”
3. “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
4. “Top Gun: Maverick”
5. “All Quiet on the Western Front”

“Polley describes her adaptation of Miriam Toews’ 2018 novel ‘Women Talking’ as ‘bewilderingly hopeful,’ a characterization that seems at odds with its story of Mennonite women talking about what to do after they discover that members of the community have been drugged and raped. But she’s onto something. The way these women debate a path forward — together — is hopeful … and thrilling.”

online polls

Best picture

An Asian woman (Michelle Yeoh) attends a lavish event in a fancy gown in EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE

After “The Fabelmans” dominated the first two rounds (the “Getting buzz” and “Will be nominated” hoedowns), its perceived “more admired than loved” reputation, as panelist Justin Chang put it in Round 2 and as manifested by its lack of trophies on the awards circuit so far, has knocked it down a peg or two in Round 3.

Instead, the movie that is winning everything seemingly everywhere, “ verything Everywhere All at Once,” has emerged as a surprisingly strong favorite in the BuzzMeter — it is the panel’s consensus No. 1 pick to win the Oscar for best picture.

Almost as close behind it as possible is “The Banshees of Inisherin,” which all but one of our panelists have as the No. 2 pick. Then there’s quite a drop to the closely bunched “Fabelmans” (winner of the coveted and often predictive audience award at TIFF), “Top Gun: Maverick” (the movie that earned the most at the 2022 global box office — though “Avatar: The Way of Water” has blown by it, combining 2022 and 2023 earnings) and “Tár” (which cleaned up at the LAFCAs a few weeks ago).

So which will win? Panelist Anne Thompson points out that “Three movies match up directing and editing: nominations leader ‘Everything Everywhere All At Once,’ ‘The Banshees of Inisherin,’ and ‘Tár,’” which is often an important correlation, come Oscar time. She says”EEAAO” is “surging in popularity,” but “ ‘Banshees’ will get a boost from the BAFTAs.”

Glenn Whipp used to envision a “free-for-all” with contenders divvying up the spoils in various categories, “But as ‘EEAAO’ showed strength across the board with 11 noms, it’s the movie to beat at the moment.”

Dave Karger agrees: “ ‘EEAAO’s’ surprising over-performance (Song! Score! Costumes!) indicates broad support across the academy’s branches. So now, to me, it looks like the presumptive winner.”

For those who happen to be planning Vegas trips before March 12, bookmakers (such as those listed at covers.com) agree with the panel. They’ve installed “Everything Everywhere” as the solid favorite at -200 (meaning one must bet $200 to win $100) with “Banshees” well back at +225 (meaning one bets $100 to win $225), then set a large dropoff to the rest of the field (“Top Gun” is next at +1,000).

Then there’s one of the biggest stories of the 2023 Oscar nominations: Edward Berger’s “All Quiet on the Western Front.” The first German feature film of Erich Maria Remarque’s 1929 antiwar novel made serious noise with nine nominations, including for international feature — and best picture. The 1930 American version, by the way, was the first film to win both the best-picture equivalent and best director (Lewis Milestone). The Buzz panel finds it less-than entrenched as a best-picture favorite, however: It ties with Sarah Polley’s “Women Talking” for seventh on the Round-3 list.

Justin Chang says, “I suppose it’s also admirable to see a non-English-language nominee ... even if I’d have set aside ‘All Quiet on the Western Front’ for ‘EO’ or ‘Decision to Leave.’ ”

Among those left out of the nominees’ circle: “Aftersun”; “Amsterdam”; “Bardo”; “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”; “Broker”; “Causeway”; “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”; “Living”; “My Policeman”; “Nope”; “RRR”; “She Said”; “The Son”; “Three Thousand Years of Longing”; “Triangle of Sadness”; “The Whale” and “White Noise” and “The Woman King.”

1. “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
2. “The Banshees of Inisherin”
3. “The Fabelmans”
4. “Top Gun: Maverick”
5. “Tár”
6. “Elvis”
7. (tie) “All Quiet on the Western Front”
7. (tie) “Women Talking”
9. “Avatar: The Way of Water”
10. “Triangle of Sadness”

Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times

1. “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
2. “The Banshees of Inisherin”
3. “The Fabelmans”
4. “Top Gun: Maverick”
5. “Avatar: The Way of Water”
6. “Elvis”
7. “Tár”
8. “All Quiet on the Western Front”
9. “Women Talking”
10. “Triangle of Sadness”

“There’s some consolation in the fact that whichever movie wins best picture, it will be an improvement on ‘CODA.’ I suppose it’s also admirable to see a non-English-language nominee for the second year in a row, even if I’d have set aside ‘All Quiet on the Western Front’ for ‘EO’ or ‘Decision to Leave.’ Still, for a while now this has felt like an ever-tightening race between ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ and ‘The Banshees of Inisherin.’ Shed a tear for ‘Tár’ and ‘The Fabelmans,’ the best of the field by a considerable margin.”

Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
2. “The Banshees of Inisherin”
3. “Top Gun: Maverick”
4. “Women Talking”
5. “Tár”
6. “Elvis”
7. “All Quiet on the Western Front”
8. “Avatar: The Way of Water”
9. “The Fabelmans”
10. “Triangle of Sadness”

“The permanent 10 slots have allowed a wider variety of films to be nominated (and win) in the category in recent years. In 2019, ‘Black Panther’ was nominated for best picture alongside ‘BlackKkKlansman,’ though oddly, it was ‘Green Book’ that won. In 2020, best picture went to the Korean-language film ‘Parasite,’ also nominated for international feature that year. This bodes well for ‘All Quiet on the Western Front,’ which was (surprisingly) selected in both categories this year. The tiny ‘CODA’ took home the big prize last year, which means anything could happen. While I’d love to see international fan favorite ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ win all 11 of the awards for which it is nominated, one thinks the old-schoolers of the academy may lean toward the equally popular (but more populist) ‘Top Gun’ or the less popular (but still populist) ‘The Fabelmans.’ ‘Elvis,’ ‘Women Talking,’ ‘The Banshees of Inisherin,’ and ‘Tár’ have outside shots. One hopes that the very popular ‘Avatar: The Way of Water’ - does not. I’m not a fan of ‘Triangle of Sadness’ and don’t understand it being nominated while ‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’ and ‘The Woman King’ are not. ‘Living,’ the lovely drama starring lead-actor nominee Bill Nighy, was my favorite film of the season.”

Dave Karger
TCM & Entertainment Weekly

1. “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
2. “The Fabelmans”
3. “The Banshees of Inisherin”
4. “Top Gun: Maverick”
5. “All Quiet on the Western Front”
6. “Tár”
7. “Elvis”
8. “Triangle of Sadness”
9. “Women Talking”
10. “Avatar: The Way of Water”

“Throughout the season, I’ve been looking at this race as a competition between ‘The Fabelmans’ and ‘Top Gun: Maverick,’ with ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ in a close third place. But ‘EEAAO’s’ surprising over-performance (Song! Score! Costumes!) indicates broad support across the academy’s branches. So now, to me, it looks like the presumptive winner.”

Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
2. “The Banshees of Inisherin”
3. “Tár”
4. “Women Talking”
5. “The Fabelmans”
6. “All Quiet on the Western Front”
7. “Top Gun: Maverick”
8. “Triangle of Sadness”
9. “Elvis”
10. “Avatar: The Way of Water”

“It feels like a slam dunk for ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once.’ No other nominee has generated the enthusiasm or excitement that this genre-busting heartfelt action-adventure extravaganza has. Not only is it enthralling, exhilarating and emotional, but so many of the main cast members have also been nominated, which bodes well for its best-picture status.”

Anne Thompson
IndieWire

1. “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
2. “The Banshees of Inisherin”
3. “Tár”
4. “The Fabelmans”
5. “Top Gun: Maverick”
6. “Elvis”
7. “Avatar: The Way of Water”
8. “All Quiet on the Western Front”
9. “Triangle of Sadness”
10. “Women Talking”

“Three movies match up directing and editing: nominations leader ‘Everything Everywhere All At Once,’ ‘The Banshees of Inisherin,’ and ‘Tár.’ Even though it is a chaotic comedy featuring multiverses and hot-dog fingers, Critics Choice best-picture and -director winner ‘Everything’ is surging in popularity. Its passionate supporters could push it forward on the preferential ballot. But ‘Banshees’ will get a boost from the BAFTAs.”

Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times

1. “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
2. “Top Gun: Maverick”
3. “The Fabelmans”
4. “The Banshees of Inisherin”
5. “Avatar: The Way of Water”
6. “Elvis”
7. “Tár”
8. “Women Talking”
9. “The Woman King”
10. “RRR”

“I could see this splintering into a free-for-all with ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ winning the SAG Awards ensemble prize, Spielberg taking the DGA award and, who knows, maybe ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ being feted by the Producers Guild. But as ‘EEAAO’ showed strength across the board with 11 noms, it’s the movie to beat at the moment.”

online polls

Best director

Daniel Scheinert and Daniel Kwan, directors of "Everything Everywhere All at Once," pretend to fight for the camera

Like their movie, the writing and directing team known as “Daniels” has emerged as the favorite to win its category, but it’s a close race.

“Everything Everywhere All at Once” auteurs Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert have been scoring big time on the awards circuit, and the panel has noticed, moving them up to their top pick. But before they clear space on their mantel for this trophy, it should be noted their closest competition in the eyes of the BuzzMeter is some guy named Spielberg — the two-time winner who picked up his 20th, 21st and 22nd Oscar nominations this year for producing, writing and directing “The Fabelmans.” And only three points separate this year’s top two spots.

Tim Cogshell considers Spielberg the favorite, though says Daniels would be his pick: “It is unsurprising that the wonderfully energetic film with its densely packed ideas required two helmspersons to pull it off so deftly. Excellent work, Daniels.”

Dave Karger, while also picking Spielberg to win, says, “Daniels feel like an exciting, 21 ^st-century choice that reflects the changing demographics of the Academy.”

Claudia Puig calls Spielberg the “sentimental favorite,” and while Anne Thompson likes his chances, she brings along a cold bucket of Oscar tendencies: “For early best-picture frontrunner ‘The Fabelmans,’ not getting an editing nod was a blow; it’s rare for a movie to win best picture without it. Only 10 films have accomplished that feat. It may have to settle for a directing nod for Steven Spielberg.”

Bookmakers also see this as a tight race, many with Daniels up (-140 at covers.com) and Spielberg not far behind (+110).

Otherwise, the category is perhaps most notable for ending its streak of female winners at two (Chloé Zhao, Jane Campion). No women were nominated, despite a strong slate of contenders.

And those aren’t the academy’s only sins this time around, says Justin Chang: “The absence of women directors from this category merits comment in the year of Charlotte Wells (‘Aftersun’), Joanna Hogg (‘The Eternal Daughter’), Alice Diop (‘Saint Omer’) and Sarah Polley (‘Women Talking’). So does the absence of international directors of color in the year of Park Chan-wook (‘Decision to Leave’), S.S. Rajamouli (‘RRR’) and Jafar Panahi (‘No Bears’).”

Also notably not receiving votes: James Cameron (“Avatar: The Way of Water”); Guillermo del Toro (“Pinocchio”); Park Chan-wook (“Decision to Leave”); Gina Prince-Bythewood (“The Woman King”); S.S. Rajamouli (“RRR”).

1. Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
2. Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”)
3. Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
4. Todd Field (“Tár”)
5. Ruben Östlund (“Triangle of Sadness”)

Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times

1. Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”)
2. Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
3. Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
4. Todd Field (“Tár”)
5. Ruben Östlund (“Triangle of Sadness”)

“The absence of women directors merits comment in the year of Charlotte Wells (‘Aftersun’), Joanna Hogg (‘The Eternal Daughter’), Alice Diop (‘Saint Omer’) and Sarah Polley (‘Women Talking’). So does the absence of international directors of color in the year of Park Chan-wook (‘Decision to Leave’), S.S. Rajamouli (‘RRR’) and Jafar Panahi (‘No Bears’). That said, is it weird to be rooting for Steven Spielberg to win his third? In a year without a clear frontrunner, I suspect he might.”

Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
2. Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
3. Todd Field (“Tár”)
4. Ruben Östlund (“Triangle of Sadness”)
5. Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”)

“The academy is always looking for a reason to recognize Steven Spielberg, and more often than not, he’s got that recognition coming. Lately — and despite my appreciation of ‘West Side Story’ — not so much. Still, he’s the frontrunner in this year’s race, with ‘Tár’ director Todd Field hot on his heels. My pick would be the two directors of ‘Everything Everywhere,’ known as ‘Daniels’: Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert. It’s unsurprising the wonderfully energetic film with densely packed ideas required two helmspersons to pull it off so deftly. Excellent work, Daniels.”

Dave Karger
TCM & Entertainment Weekly

1. Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”)
2. Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
3. Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
4. Todd Field (“Tár”)
5. Ruben Östlund (“Triangle of Sadness”)

“The Daniels feel like an exciting, 21st century choice that reflects the changing demographics of the academy. But we’ve seen so many Best Picture/Best Director splits in the last few years (including last year) that I’m inclined to say that Steven Spielberg will win his third trophy in this category for his ultra-personal ‘The Fabelmans.’ ”

Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
2. Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
3. Todd Field (“Tár”)
4. Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”)
5. Ruben Östlund (“Triangle of Sadness”)

“The sentimental favorite is Steven Spielberg, who was nominated last year for ‘West Side Story,’ but didn’t win. He has won best director twice before for ‘Schindler’s List’ in 1994 and ‘Saving Private Ryan’ in 1999. It’s possible that the award will go to him again, nearly a quarter-century later, for his autobiographical film ‘The Fabelmans.’ However, I’m betting on the duo popularly known as ‘Daniels’— ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ directors Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, for their deft helming of the year’s most inventive movie.”

Anne Thompson
IndieWire

1. Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”)
2. Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
3. Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
4. Todd Field (“Tár”)
5. Ruben Östlund (“Triangle of Sadness”)

“For early best-picture frontrunner ‘Fabelmans,’ not getting an editing nod was a blow; it’s rare for a movie to win best picture without it. Only 10 have accomplished that feat. It may have to settle for a directing win for Spielberg, who is tied with Martin Scorsese with nine noms. It would be his third after ‘Schindler’s List’ and ‘Saving Private Ryan,’ which also lost best picture.”

Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times

1. Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”)
2. Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
3. Todd Field (“Tár”)
4. Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
5. Ruben Östlund (“Triangle of Sadness”)

“ ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ led the field with 11 nominations, so it’s possible that voters go all in on the movie and sweep directors Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert to victory. But there might be some desire to give Steven Spielberg a third directing Oscar for a movie tracing his artistic impulses. Whoever takes the Directors Guild honor probably takes the Oscar.”

online polls

A female conductor (played by Cate Blanchett) passionately leads an orchestra in the movie "Tár."

In the BuzzMeter’s closest race, Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh remain locked into the top two spots, separated by only one point.

Blanchett has won the head-to-head matchup more often than not during this awards season and sits atop the Round-3 list ... barely. Should she pull off the win, she’d rise into the rarefied air of Ingrid Bergman, Walter Brennan, Daniel Day-Lewis, Frances McDormand, Jack Nicholson and Meryl Streep as the only performers to collect three acting Oscars — all staring up at Katharine Hepburn, who won four.

Glenn Whipp says Blanchett “feels undeniable” and Anne Thompson points out that “Everything Everywhere” “is expected to score other Oscars, while this could be the only win for ‘Tár.’ ”

Yeoh, meanwhile, is only the second Asian woman to be nominated in the category and the first since Merle Oberon for 1935’s “The Dark Angel.”

Claudia Puig says Yeoh “is widely admired and this feels like her year.” Tim Cogshell, not a fan of either ‘Tár’ or ‘The Fabelmans,’ says, “Of the two Michelles nominated, the one in the excellent movie should win.”

In a tie for third place are that other Michelle, Williams, and Andrea Riseborough, who each have half as many points as Yeoh collected in our voting. Riseborough, however, boasts some very powerful friends, apparently (the Hollywood version of a grass-roots campaign, with big-name celebs touting her performance in “To Leslie,” landing her the dark-horse nom).

Dave Karger says, “God bless Andrea Riseborough for adding some genuine excitement to this category,” but adds, “I’m so glad she’s in here, but I don’t think she can win.”

The race has been marked by controversy over the campaign’s success, with some voters and notables such as Christina Ricci expressing disdain for the academy’s decision to investigate Riseborough’s effort, and by disgruntled comments from the likes of Chinonye Chukwu. The “Till” director reacted to the nominations and snubs (her film received no noms in any category, though lead Danielle Deadwyler had been widely praised) by posting on Instagram that “We live in a world and work in industries that are so aggressively committed to upholding whiteness and perpetuating an unabashed misogyny towards Black women.”

Notably, other artists of color did receive nominations and other non-Black artists of color could legitimately be counted among those snubbed, and Angela Bassett, for instance, is the BuzzMeter’s consensus pick to win the supporting-actress Oscar this year.

Just as those situations seemed to cool, nominee De Armas’s former costar, Lil Rel Howery questioned the validity of her pick on Vulture’s “Into It” podcast, noting the film had been nominated for Razzies and saying, “It’s just very unfortunate that we keep — and just being honest, especially as Black people, we want to be recognized by the Academy so bad because we know what it does for our bag ... Are we ever going to get that due?”

For the record, though one might read in the vaguest of negative correlations between the Golden Raspberries and the Oscars, there has never been a causal link. Many films have been nominated for both, including “Blonde” and “Elvis” this year and Oscar winners “Joker,” “Wall Street” and “Purple Rain” in the past.

As to the subject of snubs in the category, Justin Chang, decrying how “many superb actors” — then listing a host of them — “never really had a shot,” says, “In a year this stacked with great female performances and a system this fundamentally broken, it’s an honor even not to be nominated.”

Among the acclaimed lead performances not among the nominees: Olivia Colman (“Empire of Light”); Emma Corrin (“Lady Chatterley’s Lover”); Viola Davis (“The Woman King”); Danielle Deadwyler (“Till”); Zoe Kazan (“She Said”); Jennifer Lawrence (“Causeway”); Rooney Mara (“Women Talking”); Keke Palmer (“Nope” — won the NYFCC award for supporting performance); Ji-Min Park (“Return to Seoul”); Margot Robbie (“Babylon”); Taylor Russell (“Bones and All”); Léa Seydoux (“One Fine Morning”); Tang Wei (“Decision to Leave”).

1. Cate Blanchett (“Tár”)
2. Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
3. (tie) Andrea Riseborough (“To Leslie”)
3. (tie) Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”)
5. Ana de Armas (“Blonde”)

Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times

1. Cate Blanchett (“Tár”)
2. Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
3. Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”)
4. Ana de Armas (“Blonde”)
5. Andrea Riseborough (“To Leslie”)

“In a category everyone assumes to be a Blanchett-Yeoh deathmatch, it’s remarkable that the presumed also-rans have become such a source of contention. The implications of De Armas (‘Blonde’) and Riseborough (‘To Leslie’) snagging surprise nominations, presumably at the expense of the more heralded Danielle Deadwyler (‘Till’) and Viola Davis (‘The Woman King’), will be debated for years to come. And what of the many superb actors — Tang Wei (‘Decision to Leave’), Tilda Swinton (‘The Eternal Daughter’), Regina Hall (‘Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.’), Mia Goth (‘Pearl’), Park Ji-Min (‘Return to Seoul’), Guslagie Malanda (‘Saint Omer’), for starters — who never had a shot? One thing’s for sure: In a year this stacked and a system this fundamentally broken, it’s an honor even not to be nominated.”

Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
2. Ana de Armas (“Blonde”)
3. Cate Blanchett (“Tár”)
4. Andrea Riseborough (“To Leslie”)
5. Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”)

“I fully understand the accolades following Blanchett for her performance in ‘Tár’ and the daring, physically and emotionally naked work of De Armas in ‘Blonde.’ What I cared for less were the movies they were in. Most audiences agreed. I saw Riseborough’s performance in the little-seen indie, ‘To Leslie’ when the film opened; I noted that she may get nominated at the time. And she did. Of course, I also said that Aubrey Plaza, who was great in the better indie ‘Emily the Criminal,’ may get nominated. She didn’t. I guess it wasn’t me who won the day for Riseborough. Of the two Michelles nominated, the one in the excellent movie should win.”

Dave Karger
TCM & Entertainment Weekly

1. Cate Blanchett (“Tár”)
2. Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
3. Andrea Riseborough (“To Leslie”)
4. Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”)
5. Ana de Armas (“Blonde”)

“God bless Andrea Riseborough for adding some genuine excitement to this category. I’m so glad she’s in, but I don’t think she can win. All the love for ‘EEAAO’ could sweep the fabulous Michelle Yeoh to a surprise win, but I defy anyone to experience Cate Blanchett’s spectacular work in ‘Tár’ and not check off her name.”

Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
2. Cate Blanchett (“Tár”)
3. Andrea Riseborough (“To Leslie”)
4. Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”)
5. Ana de Armas (“Blonde”)

“While most are betting on Blanchett, phenomenal as the compromised conductor in ‘Tár,’ I’m predicting the Oscar will go to Yeoh. Blanchett has been nominated five times, with the last two resulting in wins (for ‘The Aviator’ and ‘Blue Jasmine’). Yeoh has had a long, impressive career, but no Oscars. In fact, she made history for being the first Asian-identifying lead actress nominee (Merle Oberon was nominated for the 1935 “Dark Angel,” but obscured her Asian heritage). She is widely admired; this feels like her year.”

Anne Thompson
IndieWire

1. Cate Blanchett (“Tár”)
2. Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
3. Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”)
4. Ana de Armas (“Blonde”)
5. Andrea Riseborough (“To Leslie”)

“Playing the disturbed maestro conductor in ‘Tár’ should land Cate Blanchett her third Oscar (following wins for ‘The Aviator’ and ‘Blue Jasmine’). First-time nominee Michelle Yeoh is also a popular contender, but ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ is expected to score other Oscars, while this could be the only win for ‘Tár.’ ”

Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times

1. Cate Blanchett (“Tár”)
2. Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
3. Andrea Riseborough (“To Leslie”)
4. Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”)
5. Ana de Armas (“Blonde”)

“Michelle Yeoh dazzles across the multiverse in ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once,’ and, after earning her first Oscar nomination at the age of 60, she has become the category’s sentimental favorite. But Cate Blanchett feels undeniable. And her acceptance speech shout-outs to all the other great women in the race only makes me love her more.”

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Lead actor

A frustrated man (played by Colin Farrell) walks on a hilly Irish road in "The Banshees of Inisherin."

One of the biggest questions of this awards season was finally answered with the nominations announcement, and the answer was “ Paul Mescal.”

All awards season, the pundits broadly agreed on four of the five lead-actor slots: Austin Butler (“Elvis”), Colin Farrell (“Banshees”), Brendan Fraser (“Whale”) and Bill Nighy (“Living”). Would the fifth be Tom Cruise ? SAG nominee Adam Sandler ? Hugh Jackman? Tom Hanks? In the end, the academy shunned the big stars and went with the normal people — by topping the group with that shot of Mescal (“Aftersun”), it made the first time since 1934 that all five nominees in this category were first-timers.

All that aside, Farrell is the BuzzMeter’s consensus pick to win, with Fraser in second place, more than 10 points behind.

Adding Butler to that standoff, Dave Karger says, ““I can’t recall a more maddening three-way race in this category since Jack Nicholson, Daniel Day-Lewis and Adrien Brody ... I give the edge to Farrell for his varied career that has only gotten more impressive over the years.”

Anne Thompson notes “Banshees’ ” best-picture nom gives Farrell a leg up: “Fraser is at a disadvantage because ‘The Whale’ didn’t land a best picture slot. ‘Elvis’ did, and Austin Butler made that movie, but he is young, with more Oscar chances ahead.”

“Voters could go minimalist (Bill Nighy in ‘Living’), maximalist (Austin Butler in the electrifying ‘Elvis’) or naturalistic (Paul Mescal, ‘Aftersun’),” says Glenn Whipp. “But I think they’ll opt for the combo platter and reward Colin Farrell.”

Bookmakers notably disagree with the panel here, several (including vegasinsider.com) placing Fraser comfortably ahead of Farrell.

1. Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
2. Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”)
3. (tie) Austin Butler (“Elvis”)
3. (tie) Bill Nighy (“Living”)
5. Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”)

Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times

1. Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
2. Austin Butler (“Elvis”)
3. Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”)
4. Bill Nighy (“Living”)
5. Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”)

“A fascinating showdown between the well-liked star of a best-picture frontrunner (Colin Farrell, ‘Banshees’) and the well-liked actor with a killer comeback narrative (Brendan Fraser, ‘The Whale’), standing out in a rare level playing field of all first-time nominees. It’s too early to call this one — even Austin Butler, the star of best-picture-nominated ‘Elvis,’ can’t be counted out — but I’ll just note that nominating Paul Mescal for ‘Aftersun’ is one of the smartest, most discerning choices the actors branch made this year.”

Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
2. Bill Nighy (“Living”)
3. Austin Butler (“Elvis”)
4. Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”)
5. Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”)

“My favorite performance is in my favorite film, ‘Living.’ The film is not nominated, but the performance of Bill Nighy is. I dearly hope this fully deserving veteran actor gets the nod. More likely, the academy will recognize the mid-career, excellent work of Colin Farrell for ‘The Banshees of Inisherin’ or the comeback moment for Brendan Fraser in ‘The Whale.’ Butler is too young and fresh to the scene, though all his ‘Elvises’ are Vegas-ready. Paul Mescal – well – it is a beautiful performance he gives in ‘Aftersun,’ but he does not have a chance.”

Dave Karger
TCM & Entertainment Weekly

1. Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
2. Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”)
3. Austin Butler (“Elvis”)
4. Bill Nighy (“Living”)
5. Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”)

“I can’t recall a more maddening three-way race in this category since Jack Nicholson, Daniel Day-Lewis and Adrien Brody. But here we are. Brendan Fraser remains a sentimental favorite amongst so many people in the industry. But I’m focusing on Colin Farrell and Austin Butler, whose films did better overall. I give the edge to Farrell for his varied career that has only gotten more impressive over the years.”

Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
2. Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”)
3. Bill Nighy (“Living”)
4. Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”)
5. Austin Butler (“Elvis”)

“The contest is between Colin Farrell for his soulful turn in ‘The Banshees of Inisherin’ and Brendan Fraser in ‘The Whale,’ whose dramatic comeback seemed like an Oscar shoo-in at the start of awards season. The tide has turned and it looks like Farrell has the edge now, especially given his wonderful performances in ‘Thirteen Lives,’ ‘The Batman’ and ‘After Yang’ this year. Paul Mescal was also terrific in ‘Aftersun.’ Both Farrell and Mescal are Irish-born, and the luck of the Irish may win out in this category.”

Anne Thompson
IndieWire

1. Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
2. Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”)
3. Bill Nighy (“Living”)
4. Austin Butler (“Elvis”)
5. Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”)

“Because ‘Banshees’ is nominated for best picture, long-overdue Colin Farrell should follow up his Globe win with the Oscar. Weepy Critics Choice winner Brendan Fraser is at a disadvantage because ‘The Whale’ didn’t land a best picture slot. ‘Elvis’ did, and Austin Butler made that movie, but he is young, with more chances ahead.”

Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times

1. Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
2. Austin Butler (“Elvis”)
3. Bill Nighy (“Living”)
4. Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”)
5. Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”)

“Voters could go minimalist (Nighy in ‘Living’), maximalist (Butler in the electrifying ‘Elvis’) or naturalistic (Mescal, ‘Aftersun’). But I think they’ll opt for the combo platter and reward Farrell, whose wry, melancholic turn in ‘The Banshees of Inisherin’ displays an expert level of craft in moments big and small.”

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Supporting actress

A regal Black woman (Angela Bassett as Queen Ramonda) gazes at the ocean in mourning in "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever."

What a difference a couple of weeks make.

Angela Bassett, previously nominated nearly 30 years ago for her portrayal of double Rock and Roll Hall of Famer Tina Turner in “What’s Love Got to Do With It,” is not only nominated now for playing another queen (Ramonda of Wakanda) in “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” but is the BuzzMeter’s consensus pick to win the Oscar this time, after building a groundswell, picking up major critics’ groups for the prize.

Dave Karger says, “Call it a lifetime achievement prize, but it seems inevitable. And ‘Oscar winner Angela Bassett’ is long overdue.”

However, when the peer groups voted, perception shifted. Kerry Condon of “The Banshees of Inisherin” collected the BAFTA and Jamie Lee Curtis managed to avoid a vote split (with “Everything Everywhere costar Stephanie Hsu) to win the SAG. Now, in a race Bassett had recently been perceived to dominate, there’s no clear favorite. For instance, several betting concerns have no contender in “minus money” (in which it takes a larger bet than $100 to earn back $100, an indication of confidence in the winning result) — a typical betting line, such as the one at OddsChecker.com, has Bassett at +135 (bet $100 to win $135), Curtis +175, Condon +240.

There’s love among the panelists for the “Everything Everywhere” duo, but more than one expect them to split the vote. Nevertheless, Tim Cogshell says, “In my heart, I’m rooting for Jamie Lee Curtis, whose work in the same movie is a rip-roaring hoot and deserves the little statue.”

Meanwhile, in the Snubs Department, one of the year’s finest acting ensembles, “Women Talking” (includng Jessie Buckley, Claire Foy, Judith Ivey, Rooney Mara and Sheila McCarthy), was shut out. Some would argue it was as surprising to see “The Woman King,” with Viola Davis and Lashana Lynch turning in such memorable work, also shut out.

Several other crtics’ favorites — Dolly de Leon (“Triangle of Sadness”); Nina Hoss (“Tár”); Janelle Monáe (“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”); Gabrielle Union (“The Inspection”) among them — also didn’t make the cut.

1. Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”)

2. Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

3. Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)

4. Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

5. Hong Chau (“The Whale”)

Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times

1. Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
2. Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
3. Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
4. Hong Chau (“The Whale”)
5. Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

“With her wins at the Golden Globes and the Critics’ Choice Awards — plus her own overdue status, nearly 30 years after her lead-actress nomination for ‘What’s Love Got to Do With It’ — Angela Bassett has slipped firmly into pole position. It would take a lot to dislodge her at this point, though upsets in this acting race in particular are not unheard of, and enthusiasm for ‘Banshees’ could well put Kerry Condon’s superb work over the top, especially if Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu wind up splitting votes among the ‘Everything Everywhere’ fanbase.”

Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
2. Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
3. Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
4. Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
5. Hong Chau (“The Whale”)

“Angela Bassett is perhaps the favorite for her moving portrayal of a strong but devasted mother who has lost her heroic son in ‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.’ Kerry Condon stands out for her performance in ‘The Banshees of Inisherin’ (though so did all the women in ‘Women Talking,’ none of whom are nominated), as did Stephanie Hsu in ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once,’ but in my heart, I’m rooting for Jamie Lee Curtis, whose work in the same movie is a rip-roaring hoot and deserves the little statue.”

Dave Karger
TCM & Entertainment Weekly

1. Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
2. Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
3. Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
4. Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
5. Hong Chau (“The Whale”)

“Is there anyone who can upset Angela Bassett? Possibly Jamie Lee Curtis, another beloved veteran who has never won an Academy Award. But fans of ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ have two worthy performances to choose between here, whereas Bassett stands on her own. Call it a lifetime achievement prize, but it seems inevitable. And ‘Oscar winner Angela Bassett’ is long overdue.”

Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
2. Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
3. Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
4. Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
5. Hong Chau (“The Whale”)

“It’s Angela Bassett’s year. She’s overdue for an Oscar. And while she has some stiff competition. particularly from Kerry Condon and Stephanie Hsu, her power and gravitas are undeniable in ‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.’ She has already won a Golden Globe and Critics Choice for the role, but she hasn’t been nominated for an Oscar since 1994 for ‘What’s Love Got to Do With It.’ She should and will win that coveted statuette.”

Anne Thompson
IndieWire

1. Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
2. Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
3. Hong Chau (“The Whale”)
4. Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
5. Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

“Golden Globe and Critics Choice winner Angela Bassett (‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’) leads the supporting actress field, followed by two from ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ – Stephanie Hsu and her veteran costar Jamie Lee Curtis – who will likely split the vote for a movie with so many other nominations.”

Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times

1. Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
2. Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
3. Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
4. Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
5. Hong Chau (“The Whale”)

“I wrote some time back that this would turn into a race between Bassett and Curtis, two talented actors who haven’t been feted enough over their long, illustrious careers. After winning the Globe, the momentum appears to be with Bassett, who aced two emotionally charged speeches in ‘Wakanda Forever.’ ”

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Supporting actor

A suave Asian man (Ke Huy Quan) smokes in an alley in "Everything Everywhere All At Once."

One of the unlikeliest stories of awards season continues to play out in the final round of the 2023 BuzzMeter: Longtime acting exile Ke Huy Quan is the panel’s consensus pick to win the Oscar for supporting actor for his versatile work in “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”

Glenn Whipp highlighted the many versions of the same character Quan plays, “from dorky husband to a martial arts master to a suave romantic straight out of a Wong Kar-Wai film,” adding, “He’s terrific in each iteration.”

In previous rounds, Quan had been tied or a point away from Brendan Gleeson of “The Banshees of Inisherin.” But probably due to Quan’s merciless rampage (accompanied by the sweetest, humblest possible acceptance speeches) through the awards circuit, in which he has won a staggering 52 prizes so far, including the LAFCA and Critics Choice, our panel has placed him alone at the top. And he’s still up for about 20 other awards, including two SAGs.

“I was stubbornly hanging on to my early prediction of Brendan Gleeson,” says Dave Karger, “but after Ke Huy Quan’s sweep so far, plus his film’s dominance in the nominations, I see no way how he loses in the homestretch.”

Praising the field, Claudia Puig says, “Quan’s tenderhearted performance and trajectory from child star will most appeal to Oscar voters.”

Bookmakers see this as a runaway for Quan, with huge gaps in the potential winnings for betting on him (-1000) vs. runner-up Gleeson (+550).

Among the notables left out: Pascal Greggory (“One Fine Morning”); Tom Hanks (“Elvis”), Woody Harrelson (“Triangle of Sadness”); Anthony Hopkins (“Armageddon Time”); Nicholas Hoult (“The Menu”); Val Kilmer (“Top Gun: Maverick”); Eddie Redmayne (don’t get panelist Justin Chang started on whether Redmayne is lead or supporting in “The Good Nurse”); Zen McGrath (“The Son”); the late Michael K. Williams (“Breaking”).

1. Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
2. Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
3. (tie) Brian Tyree Henry (“Causeway”)
3. (tie) Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
5. Judd Hirsch (“The Fabelmans”)

Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times

1. Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
2. Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
3. Brian Tyree Henry (“Causeway”)
4. Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
5. Judd Hirsch (“The Fabelmans”)

“This is quite clearly Ke Huy Quan’s to lose, and I don’t think he will, given his roundly acclaimed performance in ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once,’ the poignancy of his long-overdue return to screen acting and the consistently moving quality of his speeches. Still, hats off to the actors branch for giving the great Brian Tyree Henry (‘Causeway’) his first Oscar nomination, and surely not his last.”

Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
2. Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
3. Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
4. Brian Tyree Henry (“Causeway”)
5. Judd Hirsch (“The Fabelmans”)

“Quan should win because he is both good and deeply engaging in a role that requires a measure of energy that actors half his age — while wearing superhero costumes — seldom muster. And his intricate and subtle nuances work perfectly in a film that really is about everything, everywhere, all at once. Keoghan and Gleeson are good, but they will cancel each other out. Henry was lovely in ‘Causeway,’ and I love Hirsch. However, even if the nomination were for Best Jewish Grandfather in director’s biopic, I’d still have nominated Anthony Hopkins for ‘Armageddon Time’ over Hirsch. And yes, I know Sir Anthony is not Jewish, and Judd Hirsch is —nevertheless.”

Dave Karger
TCM & Entertainment Weekly

1. Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
2. Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
3. Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
4. Brian Tyree Henry (“Causeway”)
5. Judd Hirsch (“The Fabelmans”)

“I was stubbornly hanging on to my early prediction of Brendan Gleeson. But after Ke Huy Quan’s sweep so far, plus his film’s dominance in the nominations, I see no way how he loses in the homestretch. He’s been gracious and grateful, and the performance is one that rewards repeat viewings.”

Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
2. Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
3. Brian Tyree Henry (“Causeway”)
4. Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
5. Judd Hirsch (“The Fabelmans”)

“Quan is the front runner in a category that’s pretty tough to call. Gleeson and Keoghan, both fantastic in ‘Banshees,’ may cancel each other out. Henry was great and nuanced as a grieving mechanic in ‘Causeway.’ Hirsch’s near-cameo in ‘Fabelmans’ was memorable. But Quan’s tenderhearted performance and trajectory from child star will most appeal to Oscar voters.”

Anne Thompson
IndieWire

1. Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
2. Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
3. Judd Hirsch (“The Fabelmans”)
4. Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
5. Brian Tyree Henry (“Causeway”)

“‘Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom’ and ‘Goonies’ child star Ke Huy Quan has been sweeping the precursors for his comedic and dramatic tour-de-force performance as the beleaguered father in ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once.’ Nothing will take the win away from him on Oscar night.”

Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times

1. Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
2. Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
3. Brian Tyree Henry (“Causeway”)
4. Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
5. Judd Hirsch (“The Fabelmans”)

“Quan played several versions of his character in ‘Everything Everywhere,’ bopping from dorky husband to a martial arts master to a suave romantic straight out of a Wong Kar-Wai film. He’s terrific in each iteration. Add in all those heartfelt acceptance speeches that have left us in puddles and you have a surefire Oscar winner.”

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Original screenplay

A man (Brendan Gleeson) sits in his modest Irish house as his former best friend (Colin Farrell) looks in through the window.

The four original screenplays the panel felt confident about in Round 2 — “The Banshees of Inisherin,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” “The Fabelmans” and ” Tár” — all made the cut, “Triangle of Sadness” filling out the last corner of the pentagon of happiness.

“Banshees” and “Everything” are very close at the top, McDonagh’s comedy-turned-tragedy ahead by only three points in the final voting. Then it’s a large dropoff to the rest of the field.

While panelist Dave Karger thinks “Everything” “seems to own the momentum now” following its many wins on the awards circuit, Anne Thompson likes “Banshees’ ” chances to change that up, come Oscar time, saying it “should have some BAFTA wins behind it when votes come in.”

Vegas has this as a dead heat, with covers.com listing both “Banshees” and “Everything” at -110, with ” Tár” a distant third (+1,000).

A couple of panelists wonder if the nasty humor of “Triangle” might prove too pointed for some voters, “especially in the way it skewers the elite, a group many Oscar voters fall into,” says Claudia Puig.

Notable omissions: “Aftersun”; “Armageddon Time”; “Babylon”; “Bardo”; “Broker”; “Causeway”; “Close”; “Decision to Leave”; “Elvis”; “Empire of Light”; “The Menu”; “Nope”; “Saint Omer”; “Three Thousand Years of Longing”; “Till”; “The Woman King.”

1. “The Banshees of Inisherin”
2. “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
3. “Tár”
4. “The Fabelmans”
5. “Triangle of Sadness”

Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times

1. “The Banshees of Inisherin”
2. “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
3. “The Fabelmans”
4. “Tár”
5. “Triangle of Sadness”

“Since voters often think in terms of ‘most’ rather than ‘best,’ ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ could prevail simply for coming off as the most original, wildly out-there story of the bunch. Still, Daniels are going up against some excellent competition from past-nominated writers perceived as overdue: Tony Kushner (who co-wrote ‘The Fabelmans’ with Steven Spielberg), Todd Field (‘Tár’) and likely their strongest challenger, Martin McDonagh (‘The Banshees of Inisherin’).”

Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
2. “The Banshees of Inisherin”
3. “Triangle of Sadness”
4. “Tár”
5. “The Fabelmans”

“ ‘The Fabelmans,’ Steven Spielberg’s light autobiography penned with Tony Kushner, is predictably nominated, though not notable in any way. While I understand why a certain kind of academy member might find a project like ‘Triangle of Sadness’ pointed and self-deprecating, I suspect most of the academy (many of whom might as well have been in the cast of ‘TOS’) won’t. And it’s mean-spirited. ‘Tár’ is an interesting film until it’s not, and its slippage is in the screenplay. ‘Banshees’ is excellent, powerful and the best writing word-for-word, idea-to-idea of all the nominated scripts – but it’s dark. ‘Everything Everywhere’ is also excellent writing word-for-word, idea-to-idea – and it’s not dark. It wins.”

Dave Karger
TCM & Entertainment Weekly

1. “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
2. “The Banshees of Inisherin”
3. “The Fabelmans”
4. “Tár”
5. “Triangle of Sadness”

“Jam-packed with strong best-picture nominees, this category remains one of the toughest to predict. A past short-film winner, Martin McDonagh could earn his first major-category win here thanks to his multi-layered work on ‘The Banshees of Inisherin.’ But Daniels’ ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ seems to own the momentum right now.”

Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. “The Banshees of Inisherin”
2. “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
3. “Tár”
4. “Triangle of Sadness”
5. “The Fabelmans”

“ ‘The Banshees of Inisherin’ is the most cleverly written of the lot, closely followed by ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once,’ with its inventive plotting. The main contest will be between these two, but Martin McDonagh’s ‘Banshees’ screenplay will likely edge out the competition given its dark humor. ‘Triangle of Sadness’ is also a wickedly funny storyline, but the pointedness of its humor may read as too nasty for some, especially in the way it skewers the elite, a group many Oscar voters fall into. ‘Tár’ is deftly written as well, but is lauded more for its performances. ‘Banshees’ will out.”

Anne Thompson
IndieWire

1. “The Banshees of Inisherin”
2. “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
3. “Tár”
4. “The Fabelmans”
5. “Triangle of Sadness”

“The third time could be the charm for Martin McDonagh and ‘The Banshees of Inisherin,’ after two writing nods for ‘In Bruges’ and ‘Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.’ With nine nominations including best picture, director, editing, actor, supporting actress, and two supporting actors, ‘Banshees’ is a mighty contender in this category and should have some BAFTA wins behind it when votes come in.“

Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times

1. “The Banshees of Inisherin”
2. “Tár”
3. “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
4. “The Fabelmans”
5. “Triangle of Sadness”

“With ‘The Banshees of Inisherin,’ Martin McDonagh muses on what makes life worth living as well as all the petty squabbles that men (and, yes, this primarily pertains to all the old and young dudes) let fester and become beefs that blow up into outsized feuds and, sure, global conflicts. It’s horrifying, heartbreaking and, on occasion, very, very funny.“

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International feature

A young German soldier (played by Felix Kammerer) earns his thousand-yard stare in "All Quiet on the Western Front."

In perhaps the most surprising turn in any of the categories followed by the BuzzMeter, season-long favorite “Decision to Leave” failed to earn a nomination in any Oscar category, including international feature.

Instead, the film that ranked fourth in Round 2, Germany’s “All Quiet on the Western Front,” loudly leaps to No. 1 after earning a stunning nine Oscar nominations, including making noise in the adapted screenplay and best picture categories. It’s tied with “The Banshees of Inisherin” for the second-largest number of nominations overall (behind “Everything Everywhere All at Once”). It dusted favorites such as “Avatar: The Way of Water,” “Tár” and “The Fabelmans” in the nom count. And its best-picture shout-out marks the fourth year in a row that a film not primarily in the English language has been nominated for the big one.

Naturally, “All Quiet” is a BuzzMeter consensus pick to win the international-feature Oscar. Its momentum is only confirmed by its success at the BAFTAs, where its seven wins (including best film) made it the most-honored non-English-language film in the British Academy’s history.

Dave Karger says, “Amongst a group of powerfully emotional films, ‘All Quiet on the Western Front’ stands out as an example of brutally effective filmmaking.”

The panelists may regard its win as a foregone conclusion, but that doesn’t mean they’re entirely happy about it.

Justin Chang says its best-picture nom alone would seal it as the winner, but that “doesn’t make it any less ludicrous that the superior ‘Decision to Leave’ and ‘Saint Omer,’ two of the strongest titles on the academy’s shortlist, failed to make the final five, or that Jerzy Skolimowski’s marvelous ‘EO’ will have to content itself with the nomination.”

Glenn Whipp acknowledges its win is seemingly assured, but says, ““Of the five nominees, I’d rank ‘All Quiet on the Western Front’ last ... Its terrifying battle scenes pack an undeniable visceral punch, but a parallel storyline centered on armistice negotiations is heavy-handed and hollow.”

The panelists aren’t the only ones not sold on Edward Berger’s revisionist take on Erich Maria Remarque’s classic anti-war novel: Despite the huzzahs from awards-giving bodies such as the Oscars and BAFTAs, critics’ groups have been less=than enthusiastic. LAFCA’s equivalent winner was “EO,” as was the New York Film Critics Circle’s and the National Society of Film Critics’; the National Board of Review selected “Close”; the Critics’ Choice Association went with “RRR”; even the Golden Globes selected “Argentina, 1985.” And the film’s reception has been, to put it politely, mixed in its home country of Germany.

Of the other four nominees, only “The Quiet Girl,” Ireland’s first-ever nominee in the category, is considered a surprise. It makes the list ahead of more ballyhooed titles such as “Decision,” “ Bardo” (Mexico), “ Saint Omer” (France) and “ Corsage” (Austria).

1. “All Quiet on the Western Front” (Germany)
2. “Argentina 1985” (Argentina, US)
3. “EO” (Poland)
4. “Close” (Belgium)
5. “The Quiet Girl” (Ireland)

Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times

1. “All Quiet on the Western Front” (Germany)
2. “EO” (Poland)
3. “Close” (Belgium)
4. “Argentina 1985” (Argentina, US)
5. “The Quiet Girl” (Ireland)

“Even if ‘All Quiet’ didn’t boast a staggering nine Oscar nominations total, its status as a best-picture nominee would give it an insurmountable lead here. Which doesn’t make it any less ludicrous that the superior ‘Decision to Leave’ and ‘Saint Omer,’ two of the strongest titles on the academy’s shortlist, failed to make the final five, or that Jerzy Skolimowski’s marvelous ‘EO’ will have to content itself with the nomination.”

Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. “All Quiet on the Western Front” (Germany)
2. “EO” (Poland)
3. “Argentina 1985” (Argentina, US)
4. “Close” (Belgium)
5. “The Quiet Girl” (Ireland)

“‘The entry from Germany, ‘All Quiet on the Western Front,’ is a powerful film that may resonate with the academy given the present circumstances in Europe, and it’s very well made. The movie everyone has been touting in this category all season is the Polish ‘EO,’ which to me, is like a fancy Benji movie with a donkey instead of a doggy. I’m a fan of ‘Argentina, 1985.’ ”

Dave Karger
TCM & Entertainment Weekly

1. “All Quiet on the Western Front” (Germany)
2. “Argentina 1985” (Argentina, US)
3. “The Quiet Girl” (Ireland)
4. “Close” (Belgium)
5. “EO” (Poland)

“When one of the five entries here has also been nominated for best picture, screenplay and no fewer than six technical categories, it’s a foregone conclusion as to what will win. Amongst a group of powerfully emotional films, ‘All Quiet on the Western Front’ stands out as an example of brutally effective filmmaking.”

Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. “All Quiet on the Western Front” (Germany)
2. “Argentina 1985” (Argentina, US)
3. “The Quiet Girl” (Ireland)
4. “EO” (Poland)
5. “Close” (Belgium)

“It seems clear that ‘All Quiet’ will win, given it was also nominated for best picture. But there’s also a chance that other, more intimate and emotionally resonant films like ‘The Quiet Girl’ or ‘EO’ could take the award. I would love to see that happen, but the safest bet is on this German interpretation of the classic WWI novel.”

Anne Thompson
IndieWire

1. “All Quiet on the Western Front” (Germany)
2. “Argentina 1985” (Argentina, US)
3. “Close” (Belgium)
4. “EO” (Poland)
5. “The Quiet Girl” (Ireland)

“This year the increasingly international Oscar voters nominated (for the eighth time) a non-English language film for both international feature and best picture. Germany’s Oscar entry ‘All Quiet on the Western Front’ (nine nods) should take the category along with some craft wins on Oscar night.”

Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times

1. “All Quiet on the Western Front” (Germany)
2. “EO” (Poland)
3. “Close” (Belgium)
4. “Argentina 1985” (Argentina, US)
5. “The Quiet Girl” (Ireland)

“Of the five nominees, I’d rank ‘All Quiet on the Western Front’ last, but with nine nominations, it would seem to be the overwhelming favorite to prevail. (This is also the only Oscar it’s likely to win.) Its terrifying battle scenes pack an undeniable visceral punch, but a parallel storyline centered on armistice negotiations is heavy-handed and hollow.”

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Animated feature

A still from "Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio" in which the main character performs in a stage show.

“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” continues to be the runaway favorite, a consensus pick in Round 3 of the BuzzMeter.

Claudia Puig says it’s “Guillermo del Toro’s year. His visually stunning stop-motion take on the classic tale brings newfound depth, as well as an endearingly whimsical quality, to an old story.”

Justin Chang agrees the film has “a significant edge in this category. Still, keep your eye on ‘Marcel the Shell With Shoes On,’ whose fans are legion.”

But Dave Karger, long agitating for “Marcel” to be recognized, says, “Kudos to the animation branch for recognizing the brilliance that is ‘Marcel the Shell With Shoes On’ ... but there’s one film in the bunch that’s on another level of ambition, complexity and artistry. This win belongs to Guillermo del Toro in a cakewalk.”

Among the prominent animated features not making the cut: “Apollo 10 1/2: A Space Age Childhood”; “The Bob’s Burgers Movie”; “Charlotte”; “ Inu-Oh”; “ Minions: The Rise of Gru” and “Strange World.”

1. “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”
2. “Turning Red”
3. “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On”
4. “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish”
5. “The Sea Beast”

Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times

1. “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”
2. “Turning Red”
3. “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On”
4. “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish”
5. “The Sea Beast”

“The industry’s warm regard for Guillermo del Toro — an Oscar nominee again for the first time since his multiple wins for ‘The Shape of Water’ — gives his visually inventive reworking of ‘‘Pinocchio’’ a significant edge in this category. Still, keep your eye on ‘Marcel the Shell With Shoes On,’ whose fans are legion.”

Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”
2. “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On”
3. “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish”
4. “Turning Red”
5. “The Sea Beast”

“The title of Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio is literally ‘Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio,’ not just ‘Pinocchio,’ which tells you something about the film. It’s not your grandfather’s (or great-grandfather’s) ‘Pinocchio.’ It will dominate the category; nothing else has a shot. Though I suspect that over time it will be Walt Disney’s ‘Pinocchio,’ better known as ‘Pinocchio,’ that we will remember best.”

Dave Karger
TCM & Entertainment Weekly

1. “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”
2. “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On”
3. “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish”
4. “Turning Red”
5. “The Sea Beast”

“Kudos to the animation branch for recognizing the brilliance that is ‘Marcel the Shell With Shoes On’ alongside entries from powerhouses such as Pixar and DreamWorks. But there’s one film in the bunch that’s on another level of ambition, complexity and artistry. This win belongs to Del Toro in a cakewalk.”

Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek

1. “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”
2. “Turning Red”
3. “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish”
4. “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On”
5. “The Sea Beast”

“Despite the lilting charm of ‘Turning Red,’ it’s ‘‘Pinocchio’’ and Del Toro’s year. His visually stunning stop-motion take on the classic tale brings newfound depth, as well as an endearingly whimsical quality, to an old story. Academy members loved Del Toro’s ‘The Shape of Water’ (best picture in 2018) and the masterpiece that is ‘Pan’s Labyrinth’ (three Oscars in 2006), so it’s already way out ahead of the animated competition.”

Anne Thompson
IndieWire

1. “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”
2. “Turning Red”
3. “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish”
4. “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On”
5. “The Sea Beast”

“Netflix celebrated 16 nominations, including ‘‘Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio,’’ which didn’t land nominations outside the category (despite being a contender for production design, a score by two-time winner Alexandre Desplat and making the original-song shortlist for ‘Ciao Papa’), and should handily win for its delightful, immersive, detailed stop-motion animation.”

Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times

1. “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”
2. “Turning Red”
3. “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On”
4. “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish”
5. “The Sea Beast”

“Del Toro put a wildly inventive spin on ‘Pinocchio,’ making the classic folk tale darker, weirder and, in many ways, more wonderful than the Disney movie you remember. This one hews closer to more grotesque elements found in Carlo Collodi’s 19th century story, adding its own eccentric ideas about parenting, morality and authority.”

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