The battle for Congress could be decided by two Orange County districts

By Defne KarabaturAudience Engagement Editor

Oct. 24, 2024 6:30 AM PT

Good morning. Here’s what you need to know to start your day.

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The battle for Congress could be decided by Asian and Latino voters in two Orange County districts

Known as the epitome of a “blue” state, California is home to countless Democratic cul-de-sacs where voters often feel like the outcome of the election is preordained. But as my colleague Ryan Fonseca wrote in this newsletter this month, California is a battleground state (if you know where to look).

The Golden State is home to some of the most highly competitive congressional races in the country. 15 Republicans, five in California, are defending their seats in costly and harsh reelection battles.

The battle for control of the House of Representatives will be decided by voters in less than two weeks. Republicans will look to hold a razor-thin majority in the House, while Democrats will need to pick up four seats nationwide to regain control.

How did California become a crucial player in helping determine which party controls the House, and thus Congress, and what can we learn from these hypercompetitive districts? My colleagues Sandhya Kambhampati and Sean Greene looked into two of these contested races, both in Orange County.

In two Orange County districts, undecided voters can tip House control.

One of California’s highly competitive districts is the newly formed 45th District, which spans much of northern Orange County — including Garden Grove, Buena Park and Brea — and parts of Los Angeles — including Cerritos and Artesia. The district’s incumbent, Rep. Michelle Steel, a Republican, is running for a third term against Democrat Derek Tran.

Another hotly contested race is in coastal Orange County’s District 47, which has been left with no incumbent after Rep. Katie Porter launched an unsuccessful bid for the Senate instead of seeking reelection to the House.

Democrats are hoping they can defend Porter’s seat with their candidate, state Sen. Dave Min, who is running against Republican Scott Baugh, while also flipping Steel’s seat in their favor.

In District 47 — which includes wealthy coastal Orange County cities, such as Huntington and Newport beaches, and reaches inland to Irvine and Costa Mesa — the number of registered Democrats and Republicans is almost evenly split, according to the latest reports from the secretary of state.

And in District 45, the number of registered Democrats is larger than that of Republicans. In both districts, a decent minority of voters are registered without party affiliation. They could end up being vital to winning both seats.

Asians and Latinos are key voting blocs in Districts 45 and 47.

Districts 45 and 47 are home to over 458,000 Asians, about 30% of the area’s 1.5 million residents. Asians make up the largest minority in District 47: One fourth of the district’s 755,000 residents are Asian. One of the largest Vietnamese communities outside of Vietnam resides in District 45, where about 36% of residents are Asian.

Democrats have targeted voters in these two key districts with ads in Vietnamese, Korean and Chinese. In District 45, where roughly 31% of the district’s residents identify as Hispanic or Latino, voters were also targeted with mailers in Spanish. In both districts, the Republican candidate was the leading vote-getter in the primaries.

In District 47, Baugh won 32% of the votes compared with Min’s 25.9%. The Republican did well in areas where the median age is older than 40, except for Costa Mesa, while the Democrat’s votes came from areas that are predominantly younger than 40, like liberal Irvine.

Min, who is Korean American, had a trivial advantage over Baugh in precincts where Koreans make up much of the Asian population: Min won a quarter of such precincts, mainly in Irvine, while Baugh won 22% of these areas, mainly in conservative Newport Beach.

Steel, who became one of the first three Korean American women elected to the House in 2020, received widespread support across District 45 in the primary, winning 54.9% of the votes. The Democratic ticket was split among Tran, who is Vietnamese American, and three other candidates.

But many precincts saw low turnout in the primary, with about sixth of the district’s 748,000 residents casting ballots, Sandhya and Sean reported.

Republicans won the last election cycle. Could voter turnout change that?

These races — along with Riverside County’s 41st District, Antelope Valley’s 27th District, and the always-competitive Central Valley districts — will help decide which party will control Congress.

So many seats are in play in California this year because Republicans surpassed expectations in California two years ago, with voters’ frustration over how the state’s Democratic leaders dealt with crime and other issues playing a part in the races, Erin Covey, the House editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Times.

But, she said, because voter turnout is higher in a presidential election cycle, Democrats are expected to have a stronger shot at these districts.

To learn more about this race and more visit our voter guides.

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How can we make this newsletter more useful? Send comments to [email protected].

For your downtime

Going out

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Staying in

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A question for you: What’s something that recently made you smile?

Kathryn K. writes: “Watching my silly old dog roll in grass!”

Feel free to email us at [email protected], and your response might be included in the newsletter this week.

And finally ... your photo of the day

A man in a jacket towers over a group of small children.

Today’s photo is from The Times’ archives. Dodgers legend Fernando Valenzuela, who died this week at 63, was one of the greatest pitchers in the team’s history. He led the Dodgers to a World Series win in 1981 and vastly expanded Major League Baseball’s Latino fan base.

Have a great day, from the Essential California team

Ryan Fonseca, reporter
Defne Karabatur, fellow
Andrew Campa, Sunday reporter
Hunter Clauss, multiplatform editor
Christian Orozco, assistant editor
Stephanie Chavez, deputy metro editor
Karim Doumar, head of newsletters

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