Report: Central Valley home prices to slip further in coming year

Home prices will appreciate in Phoenix and Colorado over the next 12 months, according to a leading private forecaster for the mortgage industry, but the long slide will continue in California’s Central Valley.

In a quarterly forecast to be released as early as Monday, Veros Real Estate Solutions projects that Fresno, Bakersfield, Modesto and Stockton will see price declines of more than 4%. Only the Reno-Sparks-area in Nevada was expected to experience a greater decline, with prices down a full 5%.

The predictions bolster a rule of thumb that every housing market is moved by its own specific economic forces. The maxim was proved wrong by the national downturn during the Great Recession, but now seems to have reasserted itself strongly.

Prices in Southern California coastal counties are expected to change little over the coming 12 months, Veros economist Eric Fox said in an interview.

That would parallel the national average, Fox said, which Veros projects will fall by about a quarter of a percentage point. (By contrast, the National Assn. of Realtors says it expects appreciation of 3% to 5%.)

Even California’s better-off regions are still troubled by relatively high rates of unemployment, foreclosure and mortgage delinquencies, Fox said. The supply of housing in the area is down “a little but not a lot,” he said, compared with a 75% decline in the supply in Phoenix.

Veros, based in Santa Ana, provides automated data for mortgage originators and buyers of their loans and securities, with clients including big lenders, institutional investors and hedge fund managers.

More detailed forecasts for California and other areas were expected along with release of the report this week.

A look at Veros’ forecasts of the top and bottom five major U.S. metropolitan housing markets in the coming year:

Strongest:
1. Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz., 6.4%
2. Boise City-Nampa, Idaho, 3.8%
3. Boulder, Colo., 3.6%
4. Bismark, N.D., 3.5%
5. Denver-Aurora, Colo., 3.3%

Weakest:
1. Reno-Sparks, 5.0%
2. Fresno, 4.9%
3. Bakersfield, 4.7%
4. Modesto, 4.6%
5. Stockton, 4.3%

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