'Dark Knight' poised to rule the weekend

By Josh Friedman

July 25, 2008 12 AM PT

Times Staff Writer

Batman has only begun.

Warner Bros. and Legendary Pictures’ “The Dark Knight,” which opened last weekend to a record $158.4 million and piled up big numbers all week, could add on $75 million or more this weekend.

“The Dark Knight,” produced for about $180 million, has two box-office marks squarely in sight. “Shrek 2” has the record for second-weekend gross, at $72.2 million. And “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” is the film that topped $300 million the fastest, but it won’t be for much longer: It took 16 days to get there, whereas “The Dark Knight” should do the trick by its 10th day, thanks to strong word of mouth and repeat business.

Christopher Nolan’s sequel to “Batman Begins” will easily repeat at No. 1 this weekend, even with two high-profile films opening today.

Sony Pictures’ “Step Brothers,” an R-rated comedy pairing Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly as immature, foul-mouthed adults who bunk together when one’s mother marries the other’s father, could open to $30 million-plus, consumer tracking shows.

Twentieth Century Fox’s “The X-Files: I Want to Believe,” a PG-13-rated mystery thriller based on the TV series, has been tracking softly and figures to be overshadowed by “The Dark Knight,” which appeals to the same adult crowd. A launch of $15 million or less appears likely.

“Everyone’s playing for No. 2 this weekend,” said Jeff Blake, Sony’s chairman of marketing and distribution. “We’ve got a great advantage in that we’re a pure comedy and there hasn’t been one since ‘Get Smart’ and ‘The Love Guru.’ ”

“Step Brothers,” the first Judd Apatow-produced comedy in a full three months, was made for about $65 million with Sony’s partner, Relativity Media. It has the jump on two other R-rated comedies -- “Pineapple Express,” a stoner adventure starring Seth Rogen and James Franco, coming Aug. 6; and “Tropic Thunder,” a Hollywood send-up starring Robert Downey Jr., Jack Black and Ben Stiller, due Aug. 13.

Awareness and wanna-see totals for “Step Brothers” are similar to those for last summer’s “Superbad,” which opened to $33.1 million. As of Thursday, 61% of reviews were positive, according to movie site Rotten Tomatoes.

“X-Files,” produced for about $30 million, could be suffering from been-there-done-that syndrome. The TV series, created by Chris Carter and starring David Duchovny and Gillian Anderson as FBI agents investigating the paranormal, had a loyal following in the 1990s and spawned a successful spinoff movie, titled simply “The X Files,” in 1998, before ending its run in 2002.

The new film was co-written and directed by Carter and reunites Duchovny and Anderson as Sculder and Mully, or whatever they’re called. With a secrecy-shrouded plot that takes the relationship between the two heroes in a new direction, it figures to attract the franchise’s fans, Batman or no Batman in the market.

The film’s overall tracking numbers, however, are similar to those for “The Invasion,” last summer’s sci-fi thriller starring Nicole Kidman and Daniel Craig, which opened to a dismal $6 million, and only 29% of early reviews were positive.

For Fox, coming off the Eddie Murphy comedy “Meet Dave” and last weekend’s “Space Chimps” (which the studio distributed for Starz Animation), “The X-Files: I Want to Believe” could be a third straight box-office dud. That would be about as pleasant as an alien probe.

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Weekend Forecast

“The Dark Knight” will top the charts again after its record-setting opening, while the comedy “Step Brothers” is expected to outperform this weekend’s other major new film, “The X-Files: I Want to Believe.” These figures are The Times’ predictions. Along with the films listed below, “Get Smart” is also a contender to make the top 10. Studios will issue weekend estimates Sunday and actual results Monday.

*--* Movie (studio) 3-day Through the weekend Weeks predi ction (mill ions)

1 The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) $78.3 $318.9 2

2 Step Brothers (Sony) 30.0 30.0 1

3 Mamma Mia! (Universal) 16.5 61.4 2

4 The X-Files: I Want to 12.5 12.5 1 Believe (20th Century Fox)

5 Journey to the Center of the 7.8 58.6 3 Earth (Warner Bros.)

6 Hancock (Sony) 7.5 205.7 4

7 Wall-E (Disney) 5.8 194.7 5

8 Hellboy II: The Golden Army 5.5 66.5 3 (Universal)

9 Space Chimps (20th Century 4.3 15.9 2 Fox)

10 Wanted (Universal) 2.5 128.4 5 *--*

Source: Times research