McCain gains edge with win; Clinton prevails in Nevada

CHARLESTON, S.C. —  John McCain won a tight victory Saturday night over Mike Huckabee in South Carolina’s Republican primary, gaining precious velocity and bragging rights as the leader in the party’s presidential race.

McCain edged Huckabee, 33% to 30%, proving an ability to win in the conservative South and rebound in the state that crushed his presidential hopes eight years ago. Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney finished well below the two leaders, with Thompson eking a narrow third-place finish over Romney, 16% to 15%.

The Arizona senator’s South Carolina triumph marked another comeback milestone in a campaign that had appeared all but terminal last summer, sunk in dismal poll numbers and bereft of cash. Coupled with Saturday night’s performance, McCain’s primary win in New Hampshire and strong showing last week in Michigan now make him the likely candidate to beat in Florida -- and, his aides hope, will propel a crucial surge in campaign donations.

“There are some tough contests ahead,” McCain said during victory remarks at the Citadel in Charleston. But grinning after a long night of watching returns, he expressed confidence that “we are well on our way tonight. And I feel very good about our chances.”

McCain’s South Carolina showing exorcised his bitter loss here to George W. Bush in 2000 and showed how carefully McCain had laid groundwork to avoid a similar fate, tying into the state’s elected establishment and reacting swiftly to counter negative media and mail hits.

“It took us awhile,” McCain joked, betraying his long memory, “but what’s eight years among friends?”

In the final days of this year’s primary campaign, McCain again found himself targeted by political committees and direct-mail campaigns that questioned his opposition to abortion and even his ordeal as a prisoner during the Vietnam War.

But McCain was quick to parry the attacks with his own mailings and enlisted establishment surrogates like South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham and Vietnam War hero Orson Swindle to vouch for him. And the assaults on McCain were blurred by a flurry of similar hits on Huckabee and Thompson.

Since 1980, South Carolina has been considered a reliable predictor of the Republican presidential nominee. But Saturday night the state provided little in the way of consensus.

According to exit polling, McCain voters followed a similar pattern to those that emerged in New Hampshire and Michigan: He won strongly among moderate Republicans, independents and military-aligned voters. Former Arkansas Gov. Huckabee’s power base was among religious and social conservatives. The exit polls were conducted for the Associated Press and television networks by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International.

Under South Carolina’s primary system, independents and Democrats were allowed to vote in the GOP race -- just as independents and Republicans will be allowed to do in Saturday’s Democratic primary.

Normally, the Republican winner-take-all primary would have provided 44 delegates divided between the state winner and those who won each of the state’s six congressional districts. But the Republican National Committee voted to strip the state of half of its delegates because the primary was moved up before Feb. 5.

In one encouraging sign for the looming Florida contest Jan. 29, McCain scored well among South Carolina’s non-native voters, winning handily among 31%, compared with Huckabee’s 24%. That trend could be helpful to McCain in Florida, where there are large concentrations of GOP retirees and other transplants on the Gulf Coast and in the center of the state.

Graham, McCain’s campaign co-chair in the state, said the Arizona senator should now have “unstoppable momentum” heading into the Florida primary.

McCain acknowledged earlier Saturday that he was already looking ahead to Florida and beyond to the Feb. 5 Super Tuesday states. “Florida’s a big state,” he said. “The north is different from the south, even the middle on both coasts are different, so there’s a lot of work to be done.” He added: “So far we’re doing well in the polls in Florida -- I guess we have a slight lead, but it’s all bunched up.”

McCain acknowledged he was hoping to target retired military families in the northern part of Florida and woo a large cohort of East Coast transplants and retirees in the middle of the state -- populations also being relentlessly targeted by former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani.

“We’ll just do what we did in New Hampshire, and do what I hope we did here, and that’s out-campaign them,” McCain said.

Another sign of hope for McCain was his slightly improved performance among conservative voters in central South Carolina and in the hilly northern Piedmont region, where he was trounced by Bush in 2000.

“At least upstate he broke even,” said Clemson University political science professor J. David Woodard, who helps direct the school’s influential Palmetto Poll. “That’s all he had to do so he could win in other places.”

McCain’s victory in a “red state,” Woodard said, “shows that he can win the base of the Republican party,” adding: “I think he already had the respect of mainline GOP voters, but tonight he won their allegiance.”

Huckabee’s natural base in the north counties may have been depressed by former Tennessee Sen. Thompson, who spent much of his time campaigning nearby over the past several weeks, local observers said.

“Thompson was the other guy the conservatives were looking at,” said Mike Campbell, Huckabee’s state chairman. “Sure, he pulled some people away. He appealed to a segment of the population who wouldn’t go and vote for McCain but wanted another conservative.”

After telephoning McCain from his primary-night base in Columbia, Huckabee gave his concession speech from the stage in the ballroom of the Columbia convention center, wearing a red South Carolina tie. Huckabee hailed McCain for refraining from attacking him directly -- a favor that Huckabee said he was happy to return.

The two top finishers, Huckabee noted, “ran a campaign with a level of civility without attacking each other” -- but the Arkansas governor was less charitable about Thompson and former Massachusetts Gov. Romney, whose operations had weighed in with attack mailings.

“I would rather be where I am and do it with honor than do it with the dishonor of attacking somebody else,” he said.

Both Thompson and Romney once had high hopes in South Carolina. Romney earned paltry returns after spending as much as $280,000 a week on ads and organization but exited the state late last week after it became evident he would finish poorly. Romney trumpeted his win in the Nevada caucuses Saturday, trying to claim a bit of momentum after his Michigan primary victory last week as he headed into Florida.

Thompson’s laid-back campaign never caught on despite his Southern roots. “Thompson at least waged a real campaign,” said Rod Shealy Jr., a veteran GOP strategist who worked for legendary party operative Lee Atwater. “It was light on grass roots, but he was smart to concentrate on the north.”

Despite speculation that he would drop out of the race after another poor showing, Thompson did not concede defeat when he spoke to 100 supporters at an election-night party in Columbia. Instead, he joked: “It may be a little bit early to declare victory.”

But in one sign of uncertainty, Thompson planned to fly to Washington, D.C., and return to his home in nearby McLean, Va., instead of campaigning in Florida. He also had no public schedule for the days ahead. A senior advisor, Rich Galen, said Thompson had not made a decision on his next step.

Another low-scoring Republican did call it quits. Rep. Duncan Hunter of Alpine announced he was dropping out of the race.

For much of Saturday, South Carolina was swept by unseasonable wintry weather that depressed turnout. Rain pounded the coast where McCain had hoped for a large turnout of retirees and veterans, and a mix of snow and rain blanketed the Piedmont towns of Greenville and Spartansburg, where Huckabee and Thompson vied for religious and social conservatives.

His aides were more worried about reports of voting snags in the coastal GOP stronghold of Horry County, where McCain expected a big turnout among military families.

“Voters are being turned away from the polls” because of electronic breakdowns, McCain’s state director, Buzz Jacobs, complained.

McCain seemed clearly worried about the weather when he arrived at a Charleston polling place. He stayed in the parking lot for only a few minutes before hustling back to the bus, afraid he might spook voters with his enormous gaggle of reporters and television cameras.

The rain almost kept 78-year-old Doris Bruce at home, but she wanted her vote to make a difference for McCain. “I came out in spite of the weather to do this. I’m after McCain and Thompson -- I’d like to see one president and one vice president,” she said.

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Reston reported from Charleston, Roug from Columbia, and Braun from Washington, D.C. Times staff writer Michael Finnegan also contributed from Columbia and researcher Nona Yates from Los Angeles.