Gov.’s popularity alone won’t sell voters on bonds

SACRAMENTO â€”  Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger may be closing in on the most lopsided reelection victory of any California governor in 20 years. But his voter appeal is not helping the huge public works bond package that he’s promoting.

Whether he has “coattails� strong enough to pull “down ticket� Republican candidates to victory in tight races is questionable. The answer won’t be known for sure until Nov. 7.

But there’s no current evidence the governor is selling voters on the record $37 billion in bonds that he and the Legislature negotiated, according to a new poll by the Public Policy Institute of California.

“Schwarzenegger has created a separate brand and identity for himself and it is working very effectively,� says the PPIC pollster, Mark Baldassare. “But people are not going along with him for his policies, per se. They find him a likable character.

“He does not have coattails in the sense of bringing along support for the bonds. His endorsements haven’t meant that much.�

To put this in perspective, Schwarzenegger is leading his Democratic rival, Treasurer Phil Angelides, by an 18-point margin among likely voters: 48% to 30%, with 9% supporting minor party candidates and 13% undecided. The governor has gradually been extending his lead for months.

By comparison, Gov. Gray Davis was reelected by only five percentage points in 2002, provoking his recall the next year. In contrast, Republican Gov. George Deukmejian won a second term in 1986 with a 23-point landslide over L.A. Mayor Tom Bradley.

It’s highly unlikely Schwarzenegger can top Republican Gov. Earl Warren’s 30-point, third-term romp in 1950, let alone his 84-point cakewalk with virtually no opposition in 1946.

But Schwarzenegger has made a stunning political comeback in the past year, in large part because of his style shift to a more cooperative, pragmatic governor. That’s what produced his most important legislative triumph this year: the bipartisan bond package.

Many voters are impressed with Schwarzenegger’s attitude adjustment. But his core supporters -- Republicans -- aren’t buying the bonds. The bonds are running ahead, propelled by Democrats, but are on shaky ground, based on the theory that any ballot proposition hovering around 50% is in jeopardy.

This is how the PPIC poll finds the bonds faring:

* Prop. 1B, $19.9 billion for transportation: Yes 51%, no 38%, undecided 11%.

* Prop. 1C, $2.9 billion for housing: Yes 56%, no 34%, undecided 10%.

* Prop. 1D, $10.4 billion for schools: Yes 51%, no 39%, undecided 10%.

* Prop. 1E, $4.1 billion for flood control: Yes 53%, no 36%, undecided 11%.

Here’s the evidence that Schwarzenegger’s coattails are flimsy at best: Of his supporters, fewer than half also back the bonds. They’re the least enthusiastic about the school bond, with only 40% supporting it and 51% against.

Voters are swayed by their ideologies and instincts much more than by politicians.

The vast majority of Angelides’ supporters, for example, favor the infrastructure proposals, with 68% backing the school bond and only 25% against. That’s certainly not because the treasurer has coattails.

Schwarzenegger has been pushing the props, but mainly as a tool to promote his own candidacy -- using the measures as evidence that he’s loosening the Capitol gridlock and being productive. That’s why Democratic legislative leaders haven’t been stumping with him at every pro-prop stop.

Already, Schwarzenegger spinners are laying the blame for any bond failures on the legislators. “When those guys started playing partisan games, it hurt the bonds,� says one campaign official, insisting on anonymity.

There’s a lot of speculation that Angelides’ disappointing race will depress Democratic voter turnout. But Baldassare doubts it.

“I don’t see any evidence of Democrats being less likely to turn out than Republicans,� the pollster says. “Both Democrats and Republicans have issues about bringing out the vote. For Democrats it’s lack of enthusiasm for Angelides. For Republicans it’s lack of enthusiasm for Bush. I think they cancel each other out.�

Of course, President Bush isn’t on the ballot. Schwarzenegger is. And 86% of GOP voters support his candidacy, based on the PPIC poll. Only 57% of Democrats back Angelides -- at least 25% short of what he needs to win.

Angelides bombed out trying to energize Democrats by linking the governor to the president.

Of the Democrats who disapprove of Bush’s job performance, only 62% intend to vote for Angelides. In fact, of all Schwarzenegger’s voters, 38% disapprove of Bush.

Allan Hoffenblum, publisher of the California Target Book, which charts legislative and congressional races, says “people really have separated out how they’re going to vote on offices in Sacramento and Washington. Angelides tried, but voters just didn’t buy it.

“Believe it or not, voters are sophisticated.�

Republican strategists say that Schwarzenegger’s biggest boost for GOP candidates will not be his coattails -- his public embracings -- but his driving of a healthy party turnout to vote for him and the entire ticket.

That’s a potential problem for the bonds, however, because many Republican’s aren’t buying and Schwarzenegger can’t sell. A hefty GOP turnout for

the governor could doom his bonds.

Schwarzenegger already has scored big with the bonds, whether they pass or not. But if voters reject them, it will take some luster off any landslide.

George Skelton writes Monday and Thursday. Reach him at [email protected].