Crime in L.A. Drops for 3rd Year in a Row

The city of Los Angeles is set to close out the year with a drop in crime of roughly 10% -- meeting a goal set by Police Chief William J. Bratton and solidifying a trend that has brought change to parts of the city once scarred by violence.

If the numbers hold up over the next week and a half, it would mark the third year in a row that Los Angeles has seen a significant drop in crime. The fact -- and its impact -- can be seen in neighborhoods across the city. The reasons, however, remain elusive.

Bratton has long credited his department’s assertive policing -- using computers to break down crime patterns, moving extra detectives and officers into high-crime areas, focusing on the small number of criminals who commit the majority of offenses -- for bringing about the declines. In a recent interview, he said he probably will set another 10% decrease as a goal for the department in 2006.

“I am a believer in setting goals and holding people accountable,� he said.

Other experts point to a variety of reasons, from Los Angeles’ relatively strong economy to the dramatic gentrification of many once-tough neighborhoods.

Los Angeles’ crime drop this year is slightly better than those recorded by other big cities. In New York, crime is down roughly 5% this year. Chicago has seen a 7% drop as of the end of November.

“A lot of cities are continuing to see a decline in crime. That doesn’t mean it’s because of the police. There are other factors,� said James Alan Fox, professor of criminal justice at Northeastern University in Boston. “Demographics, for instance. We have a growing population over the age of 50. And every day as they grow older, the crime rate benefits.�

Assistant Chief George Gascon, who oversees the LAPD’s daily operations, disagrees with those assessments. He said that Los Angeles is not benefiting from an aging population and that while some areas are gentrifying, other areas that have seen crime declines are not, such as the San Fernando Valley and South Los Angeles.

Malcolm Klein, criminologist and professor emeritus of sociology at USC, said, “Crime is a function of so many different things. And in making such goals, Bratton is assuming his department is a major factor. Unemployment, population shifts, racial tensions all are important.�

Take the Hollywood area: It recorded 25 homicides in 2004. So far this year, there have been 11.

The turnaround coincided with a major revitalization effort that has brought new businesses and vigor to the once-struggling neighborhood. But it also came as the LAPD focused considerable resources there, including installing surveillance cameras along Hollywood Boulevard that officials said have resulted in dozens of arrests.

Leron Gubler, president of the Hollywood Chamber of Commerce, said he believes the influx of residents and businesses began Hollywood’s crime turnaround but that increased police efforts clearly helped.

“It’s definitely not the same Hollywood,� Gubler said. “People who haven’t been here for years tell me they can’t believe the change. It’s dramatic. Thirteen years ago, a lot of people wouldn’t admit they lived in Hollywood.�

The northeast San Fernando Valley has also seen a sizable decrease in crime, with homicides down 17%, burglaries down 19% and robberies down 30%.

Longtime Sylmar resident and community activist Bart Reed said he has noticed a change in just the last few years -- and gives the most credit to the improving economy in the working-class neighborhood and rising property values. Homes that a few years ago sold for $150,000 now go for $450,000.

“There seems to be less gang activity, less graffiti, less people just hanging around on the street,� Reed said. “I think it’s because the economy is finding these people jobs.�

But Reed also said he has noticed far more of a police presence, especially since the LAPD opened a station on San Fernando Road.

“I never used to see police drive by my house,� he said. “Maybe just once a month. But since the station was built, I see them sometimes two or three times a day go by in a car.�

Those successes have not been duplicated everywhere. Some neighborhoods of Los Angeles are still struggling with rising crime. Homicides are up in the Rampart area west of downtown (33 compared with 24 in 2004) and on the Eastside (35 compared with 29 last year).

But falling crime rates can be seen in many disparate areas, notably the divisions covering Watts, the Crenshaw district, Baldwin Village and Jefferson Park. The city might record fewer than 500 homicides for the first time in six years. This last weekend there was not a single killing.

Fox and other experts are particularly interested in the 4% citywide drop in homicides, because that category had already decreased so much in the last three years that some had wondered how low it could go. By contrast, homicides are up in some areas patrolled by the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department.

The city had more than 647 homicides in 2002. So far this year, there have been 476.

“Continuing kudos to Chief Bratton. But it is more than just Chief Bratton that is bringing down crime in L.A.,� Fox said.

Soon after he took office, Bratton raised eyebrows by setting crime-reduction goals for his officers. He exceeded his target in 2003. But in 2004, he predicted a 20% drop in homicides and ended up with a slight increase. Still, overall violent crime dropped by 14% that year.

LAPD officials said they are confident that the trend of lower crime rates can continue into 2006 because of several new initiatives now underway and the hiring of 200 additional officers (bringing the total force to about 9,500).

The department plans to establish a new entity called the Realtime Analysis Critical Response Division, which will perform around-the-clock criminal analysis and provide support to help solve major crimes in the first hours after they are committed.

Bratton said he would also step up enforcement efforts in the downtown area, where about 20% of the city’s drug crimes occur.

“Next year we’ll be ready to begin tipping that essential area of skid row,� he said.

Determining the exact size of this year’s crime decrease is tricky. LAPD statistics as of midnight Saturday show a 14% drop in major crimes. But numbers are somewhat skewed because the LAPD uses a new way of tallying aggravated assault cases this year. The department changed its procedures to better conform with federal guidelines.

Factoring in that change, a Times estimate of this year’s crime data places the drop at about 10%. Bratton acknowledged that the total drop is about 10%.

Crime is also down in South Los Angeles, although the crime rate there remains much higher than in the rest of the city. According to the LAPD, the number of major crimes for every 1,000 residents is running at about 51 in the South Bureau, compared with a citywide average of 34 crimes. That bureau has accounted for 42% of the city’s homicides so far this year.

And even in Hollywood, residents are quick to point out that crime is still a major problem.

Robert Nudelman, director for preservation issues for the preservation group Hollywood Heritage, said his neighborhood’s gentrification has brought new problems, mainly involving intoxicated people who come into Hollywood on the weekends to party.

“I don’t know if it’s scarier watching a homeless person or a bunch of drunks getting into a car,� Nudelman said.

Still, the 28-year resident of Hollywood said he used to avoid Wilcox Avenue and Yucca Street because of crack dealers, but now feels no danger.

“Sure,� he said, police are “doing a better job than eight years ago.�

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Homicides decline

The year-to-date total of homicides in the city of Los Angeles stands at 476. In both 2003 and 2004, there were 498 as of the same date.

How the bureaus measure up

The LAPD’s South Bureau has recorded the most homicides so far this year.

*--* 2003 2004 2005 South 216 229 201 Central 147 127 151 Valley 81 79 75 West 54 63 49

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Source: LAPD