Both Gambling Measures Failing

With television advertising campaigns intensifying, California voters currently favor two closely watched ballot initiatives -- one authorizing $3 billion in bonds for research using stem cells taken from embryos, and another that would ratify a state law requiring small- and medium-sized businesses to provide health coverage for workers, according to a new Times poll.

By contrast, two initiatives on Indian gambling are trailing by large margins, despite being backed by tens of millions of dollars from Indian tribes and other gambling interests.

Those four are among the highest-profile of 16 measures that voters will be asked to decide Nov. 2.

The poll also found that U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer, a Democrat, continues to enjoy a strong lead over her Republican challenger, Bill Jones, among all voters likely to cast ballots in November, 52% to 34% with 11% undecided.

In a measure of the hurdle Jones faces, 42% said they did not know enough about him to have either a favorable or an unfavorable view. About a third of likely voters said they viewed him favorably while about a fifth viewed him unfavorably.

By contrast, Boxer, who is running for her third six-year term, had her highest approval ratings to date in a Times poll, with nearly six in 10 voters saying they approved of the job she was doing.

Among the minor party candidates for the Senate seat -- Libertarian James P. Gray, an Orange County Superior Court judge; Peace and Freedom candidate Marsha Feinland, an Oakland schoolteacher; and American Independent candidate Don J. Grundmann, a chiropractor from San Leandro -- none received more than 1% support. No Green Party candidate is running.

Boxer may be benefiting from a more positive feeling that voters appear to have about the direction of the state and the job performance of elected officials. The voter mood is a sharp contrast to a year ago when then-Gov. Gray Davis faced a recall and more than three-quarters of registered voters said they believed the state was headed in the wrong direction.

Now, 46% of registered voters surveyed said they think the state is headed in the right direction, with 44% saying the state is on the wrong track. Reflecting economic figures that have shown improvement statewide, more than half of those surveyed, 52%, said they believed the state’s economy was doing well, compared with 45% who said it was doing somewhat badly or very badly. The finding marked the first time since 2002 that a majority said the economy was doing well.

Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger continues to enjoy high ratings, with 66% of registered voters saying they approve of his performance in office and 61% saying he is “working hard to bring real change.� Only 27% disapprove of his performance, and 33% said he has mostly brought “business as usual.�

Even the Legislature, a perennial target of voter dismay, has improved its ratings a little, with 38% of voters saying they approved of the body’s work, compared with 34% this spring. Almost half of registered voters surveyed, 48%, said they disapproved.

The survey, supervised by Times polling director Susan Pinkus, interviewed 1,320 registered voters, of whom 861 were considered likely to vote in November. It was conducted statewide Sept. 17 to 21. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points

Schwarzenegger’s popularity could be one factor in how the ballot measure campaigns will play out between now and the election.

The governor has actively campaigned against both gambling propositions. He also opposes the health coverage measure, but has not been active against it. He has not taken a position on the stem cell measure but has voiced some concern about its cost.

Another major factor could be the advertising campaigns. So far, voters have reported low awareness of the measures. Before being read the ballot descriptions of the propositions, the share of those who said they knew enough to make up their minds about any of the four included in the poll was less than half -- far less on some measures.

Stem Cell Research

After being read the ballot descriptions, those registered voters who are most likely to vote in November said by 54% to 32% that they planned to support Proposition 71, which would provide a 10-year, $3-billion state fund for embryonic stem cell research. Another 14% said they remained undecided.

Supporters of the initiative have raised more than $13 million and plan to kick off an intensive television campaign today. Opponents have raised less than $200,000 and say they will rely on news coverage and less-expensive efforts to get their message across. A statement opposing the measure, for example, was distributed in some Catholic churches recently, reflecting the position of the state’s bishops.

In follow-up interviews, comments from some of the respondents surveyed reflected both the politics and the emotions surrounding the stem cell issue.

Linda Manning, a commercial real estate appraiser from Walnut Creek, said she planned to vote for the initiative and believed its passage would make “an incredible statement at the federal level, as well� by repudiating President Bush’s decision three years ago to strictly limit federal funding for such research.

Manning, 58, added that she was not bothered by the initiative’s costs because, “I know that we’re broke anyway.�

But Anne Nicholson, a Catholic elementary school teacher from Encino, said she was troubled by the implications of research using human embryos.

“We have a great need to cure these diseases and handicaps,� she said, “but that doesn’t mean we have the right to take away someone else’s basic right to life.�

The poll also asked respondents to choose between two arguments on embryonic stem cell research: one that says the research “crosses an ethical line� because of its use of embryos and the other that says the work could lead to breakthrough cures.

Given those contrasting views, the registered voters surveyed said by 71% to 21% that they favor the research.

Indian Gambling

On the Indian gambling measures, the advertising campaigns, which already have been on the air for several weeks, do not appear to have helped supporters.

Poll respondents in follow-up interviews repeatedly said they found the two gambling initiatives confusing and said that both the advertising and the explanations they had seen of the propositions had raised more questions.

The measures both trail by margins that in the past have doomed initiatives.

Proposition 68, which would break the monopoly that Indian tribes have on slot machines and allow card clubs and racetracks to install 30,000 slots, was supported by 33% of likely voters surveyed, with 46% opposed and 21% undecided.

Proposition 70, a competing measure, was also trailing badly. It would require the governor to allow unlimited Indian gambling for all federally recognized tribes and require the tribes, in turn, to pay taxes on their net gambling income at the rate set for corporations.

Under the measure, that tax would disappear if any non-Indian gambling facilities were allowed to have slot machines.

Among likely voters, 28% said they supported Proposition 70, 48% said they were opposed and 24% said they were undecided.

Belinda Ostertag, 44, one of the respondents interviewed, said she opposed both gambling initiatives and did not believe the state should have allowed Indian gaming in the first place.

She said she viewed Proposition 68 as an “under-table political move� that was trying to disguise the intent of the backers: to expand casino-style slot machine gambling to non-Indian locations.

“The biggest problem I have is that it’s really a loophole,� said Ostertag, a stay-at-home mother who lives about 60 miles west of Lake Tahoe. “If the Indian tribes don’t all agree to pay 25% of profits, then [card clubs and racetracks] get slot machines, and they know the Indians will never renegotiate all the contracts.�

By contrast, Jean Geritz, 57, of Twain Harte said that what she had heard about Proposition 70 seemed reasonable.

“If people want to gamble, my feeling is why send it to Nevada?� said Geritz, who has been a schoolteacher for 25 years. “But any gaming should be taxed to help the state.�

Health Coverage

On the healthcare coverage referendum, 51% of likely voters said after hearing the ballot description that they would support it, while 29% said they were opposed and 20% undecided.

Business groups, including the California Chamber of Commerce and the restaurant industry, placed the referendum on the ballot hoping to overturn a law passed last year that would require businesses with more than 50 workers to provide healthcare coverage or pay into a state fund created for the same purpose.

Because the measure is a referendum, a “yes� vote would keep the law in place and a “no� vote would repeal it.

Ten percent of registered voters surveyed said they were without health insurance.

Several respondents said in follow-up interviews that they believed healthcare should be more widely available, but differed on how an expansion should be accomplished.

“I believe everybody should be offered health insurance,� said Patty English, 43, a stay-at-home mother of two children, who plans to vote for Proposition 72. “I’m not sure what’s a higher priority to me -- education or healthcare -- but I believe healthcare is our right.�

But Fred Bauer, a llama rancher outside Petaluma, said he would vote to overturn the law because he believed the country should go to a universal healthcare system.

“This is another Band-Aid approach that seems particularly unfair to small business,� Bauer said.

More generally, Bauer expressed concern about the initiative process shared by other voters interviewed.

“The process of how you get an initiative on the ballot has nothing to with the merits,� said Bauer, 65.

“It has to do with who has money and what their little pet projects are, and I’m not sure it’s a good way to make law.�

Times staff writer Scott Martelle contributed to this report.

* (BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

Propositions

How four closely watched ballot measures are faring among likely voters:

Proposition 68 (slot machines at racetracks and card clubs) Yes: 33% No: 46%

Proposition 70 (Indian casinos expansion) Yes: 28% No: 48%

Proposition 71 (fund stem cell research) Yes: 54% No: 32%

Proposition 72 (employers provide health coverage) Yes: 51% No: 29%

Source: Times Poll

** U.S. Senate race, key ballot measures

Q. Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or are they seriously off on the wrong track? Right direction Oct. ‘00: 54% Now: 46% Off on the wrong track Oct. ‘00: 38% Now: 44% Don’t know Oct. ‘00: 8% Now: 10% * Q. Generally speaking, do you think CaliforniaÕs economy these days is doing very well, or fairly well, or fairly badly, or very badly? Well Oct. ‘00: 87% Now: 52% Badly Oct. ‘00: 11% Now: 45% Don’t know Oct. ‘00: 2% Now: 3% * Q. Do you approve or disapprove of...

Source: Times Poll