The Smart Money Will Be on Stanford

Stanford and Connecticut are seeded Nos. 1 and 2 for good reason. They are clearly better than anyone else in the region and it would take a monumental effort by any other team to make the Elite Eight.

North Carolina State must regain its footing after blowing a huge lead to Maryland in an ACC tournament semifinal. Meanwhile, the Terrapins could be spent from the comeback against the Wolfpack and beating Duke in overtime.

Syracuse is defending national champion in name only and none of the lower-seeded teams appear to have the firepower or intangibles to make a serious run.

A Stanford vs. Connecticut showdown could be the highlight of the Elite Eight.

Best first-round game: No. 8 Alabama vs. No. 9 Southern Illinois. Don’t be fooled by Alabama’s 12 losses. The Crimson Tide played a brutal schedule and won’t flinch at facing the four-loss Salukis, who have lost two of three since winning 16 in a row.

Upset in the making: No. 10 Dayton over No. 7 DePaul. The Blue Demons appear vulnerable, especially if they get off to the same somnolent start they did against Cincinnati in the Conference USA final. Dayton’s Keith Waleskowski must match the production DePaul’s do-everything forward Delonte Holland and allow Flyer guard Ramod Marshall to make the difference.

Impact coach: Maryland’s Gary Williams. He led the Terrapins to the NCAA title two years ago and last week took a team with nine freshmen and sophomores to Maryland’s first Atlantic Coast Conference championship in 20 years with a stunning four-day run that included overcoming a 19-point halftime deficit against North Carolina State in the semifinal and beating Duke in the final.

Impact player: Emeka Okafor of Connecticut. When healthy, he could be the dominant player in America. With a stress fracture in his back, he was good enough to be the leading rebounder in the Huskies’ victory over Pittsburgh in the Big East tournament final.

The pick: Stanford has been as close to unbeatable as any team in many years. With a variety of weapons, a coach in his prime and a fairly easy path to the Elite Eight, the Cardinal gets the nod.

*--* No. 1 STANFORD (29-1)

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First-round opponent: No. 16 Texas San Antonio, Thursday.

Impressive victories: Dec. 6, Kansas, 64-58; Dec. 20, Gonzaga, 87-80; Jan. 10, at Arizona, 82-72.

Disturbing loss: March 6, at Washington, 75-62.

Top players: Jr. Josh Childress, F, 15.2 ppg, 7.4 rpg; Sr. Matt Lottich, G, 12.3 ppg, 85.5% FT; So. Chris Hernandez, G, 10.6 ppg, 4.7 apg.

Skinny: As Stanford’s winning streak grew, so did the pressure of entering the NCAA tournament unbeaten. Dropping the regular-season finale may have shaken the Cardinal’s tree, but the pressure is gone and Stanford, which never beats itself and is looking to the return of a healthy Justin Davis at power forward, can go about its business of getting to the Final Four for the first time since 1998.

*--* No. 2 CONNECTICUT (27-6)

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First-round opponent: No. 15 Vermont, Thursday.

Impressive victories: Jan. 11, Oklahoma, 86-59; Jan. 19, Pittsburgh, 68-65; Feb. 2, Syracuse, 84-56.

Disturbing losses: Nov. 26, Georgia Tech, 77-61; Feb. 9, at Notre Dame, 80-74.

Top players: Jr. Emeka Okafor, C, 18.7 ppg, 11.5 rpg, 4.5 bpg; Jr. Ben Gordon, G, 17.2 ppg, 5.0 apg; Fr. Charlie Villanueva, F, 10.0 ppg, 5.3 rpg.

Skinny: Loaded with talent, the Huskies were preseason favorites, but they enter the tournament with Okafor slowed by a bad back and their offense not having always clicked as they had hoped. Still, they remain as deep and athletic as any team, led by an unforgiving defense that held opponents to 36.9% shooting in the regular season.

*--* No. 3 NORTH CAROLINA STATE (20-9)

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First-round opponent: No. 14 Louisiana Lafayette, Friday.

Impressive victories: Jan. 24, Georgia Tech, 76-72; Feb. 15, Duke, 78-74; March 6, at Wake Forest, 81-70.

Disturbing losses: Dec. 2, at Michigan, 68-61; Feb. 18, at Clemson, 60-55.

Top players: Jr. Julius Hodge, F, 18.6 ppg, 6.3 rpg; Sr. Marcus Melvin, F, 14.2 ppg, 8.2 rpg; Sr. Scooter Sherrill, G, 10.8 ppg

Skinny: N.C. State’s versatility makes it one of the most difficult teams in the country to match up with. Hodge, Melvin and Ilian Evtimov can all shoot three-pointers, and each can also score from inside. Coach Herb Sendek did an outstanding job of keeping N.C. State near the top of the ACC, and though the Wolfpack hasn’t been to the Sweet 16 since 1990, it could easily make it this year. If the game comes down to free throws, N.C. State is a good bet to advance. The Wolfpack shoots 79.8% from the line, best in the country.

*--* No. 4 MARYLAND (19-11)

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First-round opponent: No. 13 Texas El Paso, Thursday.

Impressive victories: Dec. 10, at Florida, 69-68; Jan. 14, North Carolina, 90-84; March 3, at N.C. State, 70-69. March 13, N.C. State, March 14, Duke, 95-87 in ACC final.

Disturbing loss: Dec. 7, at West Virginia, 78-77.

Top players: So. John Gilchrist, G, 14.6 ppg, 4.8 apg; So. Nik Caner-Medley, F, 13.0 ppg, 4.9 rpg; Sr. Jamar Smith, C, 12.2 ppg, 9.0 rpg

Skinny: The Terrapins struggled during the regular season as Coach Gary Williams tried to figure out his young team, but down the stretch, Maryland has been as good as any team in the country. The Terrapins, who won the ACC tournament for the first time since 1984, earned an NCAA bid for the 11th straight season; only four other schools -- Arizona, Cincinnati, Kansas and Kentucky -- have current streaks that long. Gilchrist, the ACC tournament MVP, scored 72 points in the Terrapins’ last three games, and is going to be a nightmare matchup in the tournament. He led the Terrapins back from a 19-point deficit against N.C. State and a 12-point hole against Duke in the ACC final. Still, Maryland was the worst free-throw shooting team in the ACC this year, and the Terrapins need more production from forward Caner-Medley if they’re going to advance to the Sweet 16 or beyond.

*--* No. 5 SYRACUSE (21-7)

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First-round opponent: No. 12 Brigham Young, Thursday.

Impressive victories: Jan. 10, Boston College, 96-73; Feb. 27, at Pittsburgh, 49-46; March 7, Connecticut, 67-56.

Disturbing losses: Nov. 26, Charlotte, 96-92; Feb. 16, Notre Dame, 82-74.

Top players: Jr. Hakim Warrick, F, 19.6 ppg, 8.8 rpg; So. Gerry McNamara, G, 16.2 ppg, 3.9 apg.

Skinny: The defending national champions, struggling without Carmelo Anthony, were on the NCAA bubble as late as February. But as the season wound down, players such as McNamara and Warrick wound up, giving Syracuse the look of a team that could pose problems for opponents -- even deep into the bracket.

*--* No. 6 VANDERBILT (21-9)

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First-round opponent: No. 11 Western Michigan, Friday.

Impressive victories: Dec. 6, Michigan, 83-63; Jan. 31, Kentucky, 66-60; Feb. 18, at Alabama, 70-67.

Disturbing losses: Jan. 14, at Tennessee, 74-64; Jan. 24, at Arkansas, 70-62; Jan. 28, South Carolina, 57-55.

Top Players: Sr. Matt Freije, F, 18.5 ppg, 5.4 rpg; So. Mario Moore, G, 10.6 ppg; Jr. David Przybyszewski, F, 8.2 ppg, 44.7 three-point FG%.

Skinny: Vanderbilt started 12-0, then proceeded to drop four of its first five SEC contests. But the Commodores righted themselves in February. Freije is a legitimate star; he is 6 feet 9, but he can handle the ball, has good range (he has made 51 three-pointers) and runs the court well. But he must be productive if the Commodores are to win any NCAA games. Vanderbilt has nine players who average at least 10 minutes and eight who average at least 17, but outside of Freije, no one on this team really scares anybody. Przybyszewski, from Poland, is 7-1, but he hangs around the perimeter and rarely ventures inside on offense.

*--* No. 7 DePAUL (21-9)

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First-round opponent: No. 10 Dayton, Thursday.

Impressive victories: Jan. 13, Memphis, 82-73; Feb. 25, at Louisville, 60-58, OT; March 4, Cincinnati, 68-65.

Disturbing losses: Dec. 20, Toledo, 93-81; Jan. 10, at Cincinnati, 90-65; Feb. 21, St. Louis, 69-62.

Top players: Sr. Andre Brown, F, 14.4 ppg., 4.7 rpg.; Sr. Delonte Holland, F, 16.8 ppg., Jr. Drake Diener, G, 12.2 ppg. 50.6% fgp.

Skinny: DePaul won 12 of its last 14 regular-season games. Its defense has improved in the second half of season.

*--* No. 8 ALABAMA (17-12)

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First-round opponent: No. 9 Southern Illinois, Thursday.

Impressive victories: Dec. 3, Charlotte, 79-72; Dec. 30, Wisconsin, 71-56; Feb. 21, at Mississippi State 77-73.

Disturbing losses: Jan. 3, at Xavier, 68-47; Jan. 24, at Mississippi, 71-60.

Top players: So. Kennedy Winston, F, 16.9 ppg, 5.5 rpg; Jr. Earnest Shelton, G, 15.8 ppg; Sr. Emmett Thomas, F/G, 8.9 ppg, 45.0 three-point FG%.

Skinny: The Tide doesn’t have a gaudy record, but it has played the toughest schedule in the nation and has some nice wins. Winston is a star on the rise; he can score down low and from the perimeter, and is a tough matchup for most teams. But he is the only frontcourt player with reliable offensive skills. There also are some good three-point shooters who can be effective in a half-court set. Still, if Winston struggles offensively, the Tide is in trouble.

*--* No. 9 SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (25-4)

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First-round opponent: No. 8 Alabama, Thursday.

Impressive victories: Nov. 29, at UW-Milwaukee, 81-77; Jan. 31, Northern Iowa, 63-53; Feb. 2, at Creighton, 61-60.

Disturbing loss: March 7, Southwest Missouri State, 80-74.

Top players: Jr. Darren Brooks, G, 16.2 ppg., 5.9 rpg.; Jr. Stetson Hairston, G, 9.4 ppg., 4.4 rpg.

Skinny: The Salukis didn’t miss a beat when Bruce Weber went to Illinois and Matt Painter took over as coach. Three starters are under 6-4 but SIU lives up to Saluki hunting-dog image.

*--* No. 10 DAYTON (24-8)

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First-round opponent: No. 7 DePaul, Thursday.

Impressive victories: Nov. 21, at Pepperdine, 90-77; Jan. 10, Temple, 60-56; Jan. 31, Xavier, 74-67.

Disturbing losses: Dec. 23, at Cincinnati, 82-53; Jan. 3, at Wyoming, 61-59; Feb. 18, at George Washington, 66-64.

Top players: Sr. Raymond Marshall, G, 14.5 ppg, 5.2 apg; Sr. Keith Waleskowski, C, 13.2 ppg, 9.7 rpg; Sr. Sean Finn, C, 13.0 ppg, 7.2 rpg.

Skinny: The Flyers are a physical team with the ability to also run and gun with the best of teams, especially when they play at the University of Dayton Arena, where they went 14-2 this season.

*--* No. 11 WESTERN MICHIGAN (26-4)

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First-round opponent: No. 6 Vanderbilt, Friday.

Impressive victory: Dec. 15, at Alabama-Birmingham, 69-62.

Disturbing losses: Nov. 24, at Detroit, 64-43; Feb. 15, at Marshall, 82-76; Feb. 28, at Toledo, 93-84.

Top players: Sr. Mike Williams, F, 18.8 ppg, 7.2 rpg; Jr. Ben Reed, G, 16.2 ppg, 4.8 rpg

Skinny: Williams, the MAC player of the year, led Western Michigan to its first regular-season league title since 1981. The senior forward shot 54% from the field and also ranked fourth in steals and sixth in blocked shots in the conference. It’s hard to gauge how far the Broncos can go in the NCAA tournament, since they didn’t play a ranked team this year, and defeated two weak Pac-10 teams (USC and Arizona State) during nonconference play. Still, mid-majors have had tremendous success in the tournament in recent years, and every year, someone has to play the role of Cinderella. If Reed and Williams play well, the Broncos are a good candidate.

*--* No. 12 BRIGHAM YOUNG (21-8)

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First-round opponent: No. 5 Syracuse, Thursday.

Impressive victories: Dec. 6, Oklahoma State, 76-71; Feb. 23, Air Force, 67-61; March 2, Utah, 70-57.

Disturbing losses: Nov. 26, at California, 47-46; Jan. 12, at San Diego State, 65-61; Jan. 27, at New Mexico, 65-63.

Top players: Sr. Rafael Araujo, C, 18.2 ppg, 10 rpg; Sr. Mark Bigelow, F, 13.3 ppg, 44.4% FG; Sr. Luiz Lemes, G, 8.6 ppg, 4.4 apg.

Skinny: BYU was the league’s overwhelming preseason favorite and though the Cougars finished behind Air Force, they are the hottest, and most complete, team in the league. Araujo is a beast down low with a nice shooting touch and three-point range and Bigelow, who loves to go bombs-away from beyond the arc, keeps opponents honest.

*--* No. 13 TEXAS EL PASO (24-7)

*--*

First-round opponent: No. 4 Maryland, Thursday.

Impressive victories: Dec. 6, at New Mexico State, 83-74; Feb. 5, Rice, 105-62.

Disturbing losses: Feb. 14, at Nevada, 92-63; March 6, at Boise State, 59-45.

Top players: Jr. Omar Thomas, G, 15.5 ppg, 4.8 rpg; Jr. Filiberto Rivera, G, 11.2 ppg, 4.7 apg; Sr. Chris Craig, G, 9.0 ppg, 42.9% three-point shooting.

Skinny: If Rivera is less than 100% because of an ankle injury, the Miners will be in trouble because he’s the team floor leader.

*--* No. 14 LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE (20-8)

*--*

First-round opponent: No. 3 North Carolina State, Friday.

Impressive victory: Dec. 28, at Valparaiso, 95-71.

Disturbing losses: Nov. 18, at Georgia Tech, 79-45; Feb. 21, at Rice, 81-76.

Top players: Sr., Antoine Landry, G, 13.1 ppg.; Sr., Brian Boyd, G, 12.0 ppg.; Sr. Brian Hamilton, F, 12.0 ppg.

Skinny: The Ragin’ Cajuns, in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2000, are the Sun Belt’s highest-scoring team but are weak on defense.

*--* No. 15 VERMONT (22-8)

*--*

First-round opponent: No. 2 Connecticut, Thursday.

Impressive victories: Jan. 11, at Maine, 71-62; Jan. 17, at Boston University, 59-57; Feb. 8, at Northeastern, 67-65.

Disturbing losses: Dec. 2, at Massachusetts, 76-64; Dec. 30, at Rhode Island, 94-56; Feb. 21, at New Hampshire, 78-57.

Top players: Jr. T.J. Sorrentine, G, 14.6 ppg, 4.6 apg; Sr. Scotty Jones, C, 6.0 ppg, 6.4 rpg; Jr. Germain Njila, G/F, 6.2 ppg, 6.1 rpg.

Skinny: The Catamounts were strengthened by the earlier-than-expected return of junior forward Taylor Coppenrath from a broken wrist. He scored 43 points Saturday in Vermont’s 72-53 victory over Maine in the America East Conference tournament title game, his first game back. Coppenrath was the nation’s fourth-leading scorer (23.8) before he was hurt. Without the two-time America East player of the year, Vermont was led by Sorrentine, the 2002 America East player of the year.

*--* No. 16 TEXAS SAN ANTONIO (19-13)

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First-round opponent: No. 1 Stanford, Thursday.

Impressive victories: Dec. 13, at Baylor, 53-45; March 5, SE Louisiana, 106-86.

Disturbing loss: Nov. 20, Alaska-Fairbanks, 66-48

Top players: Sr., LeRoy Hurd, F, 19.2 ppg; Jr., Raphael Perry, G, 11.6 ppg; Sr., Justin Harbert, G, 10.5 ppg.

Skinny: The Roadrunners started the season with eight players and were 5-10 before an impressive second half that culminated in their first NCAA berth since 1989.

Team capsules compiled by writers from Tribune Co. newspapers.