Hard Road Awaits Kentucky, Gonzaga

So will it be reigning ‘Cats or ‘Dogs after the regional final is played March 28 in St. Louis?

The top-seeded Kentucky Wildcats and the No. 2 Gonzaga Bulldogs certainly are capable of earning a spot in the Final Four. But after first-round walkovers, the road to San Antonio won’t be easy for the front-runners. Standing in their way are a number of dangerous teams.

On Gonzaga’s side of the bracket, Georgia Tech looms as a threat after posting its best conference finish since 1996 and ending Duke’s 41-game home winning streak two weeks ago. A possible second-round matchup with battle-tested Michigan State also could prove troublesome for the Bulldogs, whose 20-game winning streak is the nation’s longest.

Kentucky, after dispatching the winner of the play-in game between Lehigh and Florida A&M;, could meet a hot Washington team in the second round. After that, the Wildcats could face a challenge from either Kansas or Providence in the Sweet 16.

But don’t count on Kentucky stumbling early. The Southeastern Conference champions have reached the Sweet 16 in five of the last six seasons.

Gonzaga, from Spokane, Wash., has the advantage of playing what amounts to home games in the first two rounds in Seattle. The Bulldogs are 14-0 this season in games played in Washington.

Best first-round game: Fifth-seeded Providence vs. No. 12 Pacific. If nothing else, Pacific should be inspired to gain some respect for the Big West Conference after regular-season champion Utah State (25-3) was snubbed by the NCAA selection committee. With a 15-game winning streak, Pacific is among the hottest teams in the nation and played Duke and Saint Joseph’s tough in early losses.

Upset in the making: Eleventh-seeded Utah over No. 6 Boston College. Utah could have fallen apart after longtime coach Rick Majerus resigned Jan. 28 because of health concerns. Instead, the Utes gelled under Kerry Rupp, going 9-3 and winning the Mountain West tournament. Utah’s strong front line and the three-point shooting of senior guard Nick Jacobson will be a tough combination for Boston College. Experience also favors the Utes. Boston College’s leading scorers are Craig Smith, a sophomore from Fairfax High, and freshman Jared Dudley.

Impact coach: Tubby Smith, Kentucky. Smith signed a contract after last season that pays him at least $2.5 million per season, and it’s easy to see why he gets the big bucks. In his seventh season at Kentucky, Smith has guided the Wildcats to a 190-51 record, one national championship, two Elite Eight appearances and two Sweet 16 appearances.

Impact player: Ronny Turiaf, Gonzaga. Even when he is having an off night, Turiaf finds ways to contribute. The 6-foot-10 junior made only one of his first 11 shots in the semifinals of the West Coast Conference tournament, but his two putback baskets in the final minute gave the Bulldogs a 63-62 victory over Santa Clara on March 7. He came back the next night by matching career highs with 29 points and 14 rebounds in an 84-71 victory over Saint Mary’s in the final. Senior guard Blake Stepp, a Wooden Award finalist, gets most of the publicity for Gonzaga, but it’s Turiaf, a future NBA player, who elevates the Bulldogs to a higher level.

The pick: Kentucky. The Wildcats have the best combination of balance, toughness, senior leadership, coaching and unrelenting defense.

*--* No. 1 KENTUCKY (26-4)

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First-round opponent: Winner of the play-in game between No. 16 Lehigh and Florida A&M;, Friday.

Impressive victories: Dec. 13, Michigan State, 79-74; Jan. 13, at Mississippi State, 67-66; Feb. 3, at Florida, 68-65; March 14, Florida, 89-73, in SEC final.

Disturbing losses: Jan. 17, Georgia, 65-57; Feb. 14, at Georgia, 74-68.

Top Players: Sr. Erik Daniels, F, 14.7 ppg, 6.0 rpg; Sr. Gerald Fitch, G, 15.4 ppg, 40.1 3-pt. FG%; Jr. Chuck Hayes, F, 10.7 ppg, 8.2 rpg;

Skinny: Kentucky plays smart, tough basketball. The Wildcats are especially strong on defense, holding foes to 39.9% shooting from the field. The ‘Cats also pound the boards despite not having a truly elite big man. Depth is severely lacking, but that may not matter in the NCAA tourney, when coaches shorten their rotations. Outside shooting is a potential trouble spot. But UK has the starting five, the toughness and the coaching to go a long way.

*--* No. 2 GONZAGA (27-2)

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First-round opponent: No.15 Valparaiso, Thursday.

Impressive victories: Nov. 29, Georgia, 82-76; Dec. 6, at Maryland, 82-68; Dec. 13, Missouri, 87-80.

Disturbing losses: None.

Top players: Jr. Ronny Turiaf, F, 15.6 ppg, 6.5 rpg; Sr. Blake Stepp, G, 14.7 ppg, 6.6 apg; Sr. Cory Violette, C, 14.1 ppg, 8.0 rpg.

Skinny: The West Coast Conference champions are making their sixth consecutive NCAA tournament appearance with arguably the best team in school history. Boasting talent, depth and senior leadership, the Bulldogs have a 20-game winning streak after posting a 16-0 record against teams in the overmatched WCC. Gonzaga’s success starts with a formidable front line.

*--* No. 3 GEORGIA TECH (22-8)

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First-round opponent: No. 14 Northern Iowa, Friday.

Impressive victories: Nov. 26, at Connecticut, 77-61; Feb. 10, North Carolina, 88-77; March 3, Duke, 76-68.

Disturbing losses: Jan. 3, at Georgia, 83-80.

Top players: Jr. B.J. Elder, G, 16.3 ppg; So. Jarrett Jack, G, 12.7 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 5.8 apg; Sr. Marvin Lewis, G, 11.4 ppg

Skinny: If you’re looking for a dark horse Final Four pick, this might be the team. Georgia Tech had its best conference finish since 1995-96, and Paul Hewitt’s team is athletic and explosive. The Yellow Jackets knocked off Duke in Cameron Indoor Stadium two weeks ago, ending a 41-game home-winning streak for the Blue Devils. Elder and Jack have carried Georgia Tech this season.

*--* No. 4 KANSAS (21-8)

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First-round opponent: No. 13 Illinois Chicago, Friday.

Impressive victories: Feb. 7, Texas Tech, 96-77; March 7, at Missouri, 84-82.

Disturbing losses: Dec. 21, at Nevada, 75-61; Jan. 22, 69-68; Feb. 15, at Nebraska, 74-55. Big 12 tournament.

Top players: Jr. Wayne Simien, F, 17.6 ppg, 9 rpg; Jr. Keith Langford, G, 16.1 ppg, 4.7 rpg; Fr. J.R. Giddens, G, 10.7 ppg, 3.6 rpg.

Skinny: Had lost four straight on the road before winning at Missouri in the last game of the regular season. Gets 79.1% of their scoring from starters, so bench is weak. Simien a force all season, but outside shooting the key. When Jayhawks get it, their offense works. When they don’t, opponents pack it down low and shut down Simien and that offense.

Famous grad: Dean Smith, former North Carolina coach

Little-known fact: Dr. James Naismith, who invented the game, was Kansas’ first basketball coach. He was hired in 1898 at $1,300 per year and, in his first season, the Jayhawks finished 7-4.

*--* No. 5 PROVIDENCE (20-8)

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First-round opponent: No. 12 Pacific, Friday.

Impressive victories: Nov. 29 Alabama, 76-61; Jan. 24, at Connecticut, 66-56; Feb. 7, Syracuse, 74-61.

Disturbing losses: Dec. 6, at Rhode Island, 89-79; Feb. 4, at Virginia Tech, 69-57.

Top players: Jr. Ryan Gomes, F, 18.6 ppg, 9.3 rpg; Jr. Rob Sanders, F, 11.0 ppg, 4.4 rpg.

Skinny: Gomes has grown two inches and dropped about 25 pounds in becoming one of the best post players in the nation. The Friars did not look good in closing the regular season with losses to Pittsburgh and Boston College, particularly on offense.

*--* No. 6 BOSTON COLLEGE (23-9)

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First-round opponent: No. 11 Utah, Friday.

Impressive victories: Feb. 16, at Seton Hall, 67-63; March 6, at Providence, 63-54.

Disturbing defeats: Dec. 30, at Clemson, 72-62; Jan. 14, Villanova, 92-89.

Top players: So. Craig Smith, F, 17.3 ppg, 8.4 rpg; Fr. Jared Dudley, F, 12.2 ppg, 6.7 rpg; Sr. Uka Agbai, F, 10.8 ppg, 5.2 rpg.

Skinny: The Eagles could have been written off after an NIT season with the losses of Troy Bell, one of the best players in school history, and Ryan Sidney, another solid contributor. But thanks to Smith and Dudley, and the rest of a scrappy roster, the Eagles only got better, closing the regular season with five victories to ensure an NCAA bid.

*--* No. 7 MICHIGAN STATE (18-11)

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First-round opponent: No.10 Nevada, Thursday.

Impressive victory: Nov. 30, DePaul, 89-81.

Disturbing losses: Jan. 10, at Purdue, 76-70; Feb. 10, at Illinois, 75-51; March 2, Wisconsin, 68-64.

Top players: So. Paul Davis, C, 15.8 ppg, 6.2 rpg; Jr. Chris Hill, G, 14.1 ppg, 3.9 apg; Jr. Kelvin Torbert, G, 10.7 ppg, FG% 53.4%.

Skinny: The Spartans played a difficult non-conference schedule, started 5-6 and never fully recovered in Big Ten play.

*--* No. 8 WASHINGTON (19-11)

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First-round opponent: No. 9 Alabama Birmingham, Friday.

Impressive victories: Jan. 29, Arizona, 96-83; Feb. 26, at Arizona, 89-84; March 6, Stanford, 75-62.

Disturbing losses: Dec. 6, at Wyoming, 92-76; Dec. 20, at Houston, 79-64; Jan. 10, UCLA, 86-84.

Top players: So. Brandon Roy, G, 13.4 ppg, 5.4 rpg; So. Nate Robinson, G, 12.4 ppg, 87.1% FT; Jr. Will Conroy, G, 12.3 ppg, 4.6 apg.

Skinny: Washington began the Pac-10 season by dropping its first five games and ended it by winning 12 of 13, including its first sweep of Arizona since 1984 and handing then-No. 1 Stanford its first loss.

*--* No. 9 ALABAMA BIRMINGHAM (20-9)

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First-round opponent: No. 8 Washington, Friday.

Impressive victories: Feb. 7, at Louisville, 73-55; Feb. 18, Cincinnati, 80-69; Feb. 25, Tulane 74-69.

Disturbing loss: Feb. 7 at Louisville 73-55

Top players: Sr. Morris Finley G, 13.5 ppg., 2.0 rpg.; Sr. Gabe Kennedy F, 11.5 ppg., 5.5 rpg.

Skinny: Relatively easy C-USA schedule and late loss to Tulane leave questions

*--* No. 10 NEVADA (23-8)

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First-round opponent: No. 7 Michigan State, Thursday

Impressive victories: Nov. 24, at Nevada Las Vegas, 75-61; Feb. 12, Boise State, 92-78.

Disturbing losses: Feb. 5, at Southern Methodist, 71-70; Feb. 18, at Rice, 85-78.

Top players: Jr. Kirk Snyder, F, 18.7 ppg, 5.8 rpg; Fr. Nick Fazekas, C, 12.7 ppg, 7.6 rpg; Sr. Garry Hill-Thomas, G, 9.8 ppg.

Skinny: The Wolf Pack has enough offensive talent to be a sleeper in the NCAA tournament, but the defense is too inconsistent to advance far.

*--* No. 11 UTAH (24-8)

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First-round opponent: No. 6 Boston College, Friday.

Impressive victories: Dec. 3, Utah State, 56-45; Dec. 23, at Colorado, 77-57; Jan. 31, BYU, 64-56.

Disturbing losses: Jan. 24, at New Mexico, 70-54; Feb. 16, at Wyoming, 74-65; March 2, at BYU, 70-57.

Top players: Sr. Nick Jacobson, G, 16.8 ppg, 45.3% 3PT; Fr. Andrew Bogut, C, 12.3 ppg, 9.9 rpg; So. Tim Drisdom, G, 5.9 ppg, 3.7 apg.

Skinny: The Utes’ dominant front line allows Jacobson to fire away from three-point territory.

*--* No. 12 PACIFIC (24-7)

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First-round opponent: No. 5 Providence, Friday.

Impressive victories: Dec. 6, Nevada, 82-76; Feb. 14, Utah State, 64-60; Feb. 19, at UC Santa Barbara, 61-58.

Disturbing losses: Nov. 28, Canisius, 62-59; Dec. 10, Fresno State, 66-51; Dec. 13, at Santa Clara, 72-61.

Top players: Sr. Miah Davis, G, 14.7 ppg, 3.0 apg, 85.5% FT; So. Christian Maraker, F, 13.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg; Jr. Guilluame Yango, 10.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 32 blocks

Skinny: The Tigers are one of the hottest teams in the nation with a 13-game winning streak.

*--* No. 13 ILLINOIS CHICAGO (24-7)

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First-round opponent: No. 4 Kansas, Friday.

Impressive victories: Dec. 20, Northwestern, 90-71; Jan. 31, at Butler, 74-71; Feb. 5, at Wisconsin-Milwaukee, 86-82..

Disturbing losses: Nov. 16, at Oakland (Mich.), 79-66; Dec. 5, Northern Illinois, 54-53.

Top players: Sr. Cedrick Banks , G, 18.5 ppg; Sr. Martell Bailey, G, 7.9 apg; Sr. Armond Williams, F, 11.8 ppg, 5.9 rpg

Skinny: In four years at Westinghouse High, Banks and Bailey played on teams that had a collective record of 132-3.

*--* No. 14 NORTHERN IOWA (21-9)

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First-round opponent: No. 3 Georgia Tech, Friday.

Impressive victories: Feb. 21, at UW Green Bay, 82-75; March 1, Southern Illinois, 68-52.

Disturbing losses: Jan. 28, Illinois State, 68-60; Feb. 14, at Bradley, 72-64.

Top players: So. Ben Jacobson, G,14.1 ppg., 39.8% 3-pts., Sr. David Gruber, C, 11.9 ppg., 6.9 rebounds; Sr. Matt Schneiderman, F, 10.9 ppg., 47.1 FG%; Jr. Erik Crawford, G, 83.3 FT%, 2.7 apg.

Skinny: The Panthers were 11-9 after losing at Bradley on Feb. 14. They haven’t lost since, sweeping the remainder of their Missouri Valley Conference schedule and through the MVC tournament.

*--* No. 15 VALPARAISO (18-12)

*--*

First-round opponent: No. 2 Gonzaga, Thursday.

Impressive victories: Dec. 30, Liberty, 72-54.

Disturbing losses: Jan. 8, at Missouri-Kansas City, 60-59; Feb. 21, at Southern Utah, 75-58.

Top players: Sr. Joaquim Gomes, F, 13.1 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 1.8 bpg. So. Dan Oppland, F, 15.9 ppg, 7.2 rpg. Jr. Ali Berdiel, G, 11.5 ppg, 6.1 apg.

Skinny: Team leader Greg Tonagel is a six-year senior due to five operations for ankle and knee injuries.

*--* No. 16 LEHIGH (19-10)

*--*

Play-in game opponent: No. 16 Florida A&M;, Tuesday.

Impressive victories: Jan. 17, at American, 63-58; Jan. 30, Holy Cross, 63-53; Feb. 22, Lafayette, 78-73.

Disturbing losses: Dec. 29, at Sacred Heart, 58-56; Jan. 6, at Cornell, 69-76; Feb. 27, Colgate, 54-48.

Top Players: Sr. Austen Rowland, G, 15.8 ppg, 4.1 rpg; Fr. Jose Olivero, G, 11.9 ppg, 2.2 rpg; Fr. Jason Mgebroff, C, 6.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg; Jr. Earl Nurse, F, 6.4 ppg, 5.1 rpg.

Skinny: The Mountain Hawks are an up-tempo team that rely heavily on the 1-2 punch of Rowland, the Patriot League Player of the Year, and Olivero, an all-rookie team member. They also full-court press a lot.

*--* No. 16 FLORIDA A&M; (14-16)

*--*

Impressive victories: Feb. 14, at Hampton, 77-59; March 13, Coppin State, 58-51.

Disturbing losses: Jan. 26, at South Carolina State, 86-62; March 5, at Bethune-Cookman, 85-83.

Top Players: Sr. Terrence Woods, G, 20.4 ppg; Sr. Demarcus Wilkins, G, 14.4 ppg, 4.5 rpg.

Skinny: The Rattlers led the MEAC in three-pointers (8.54 per game), and will live or die by the long ball in the NCAA tournament. Woods leads Division I in three-pointers made per game and recorded six or more in 12 games this season. Wilkins and point guard Tony Tate are capable of hitting from behind the arc.

Team capsules compiled by writers from Tribune Co. newspapers.