GOP Campaign Strategists Turn Focus on Kerry

WASHINGTON —  For months, Republican strategists have talked with ill-concealed glee about the prospect that former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean might quickly win the Democratic presidential nomination -- a scenario they relished not only because they thought President Bush could defeat Dean in the fall, but also for the bare-knuckled ideological combat such a matchup would afford.

But this week, the GOP’s campaign planners were abruptly forced to turn their sights on the Democratic race’s new frontrunner, Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) -- and at least some of them suggested that he might be tougher for Bush to beat.

“He is a very competent leader,” one Bush campaign strategist said Friday, speaking on condition that he not be identified. “He has demonstrated that he can win elections. Obviously, he’s a seasoned politician.”

Dean “had assets and liabilities too,” the campaign official said. But he spoke pointedly of Dean in the past tense -- and of Kerry in the present. “I think it would be difficult [for Dean] to reemerge,” he said. “Once the public gets buyer’s remorse, it’s very difficult for them to go back.”

Officially, the Bush campaign says it does not much care who wins the Democratic nomination; in the GOP’s view, Bush will beat any of them.

“I don’t think who the Democrats nominate is going to make a lot of difference,” Bush campaign manager Ken Mehlman said. “They’re all for higher taxes.... And with the exception of Sen. [Joe] Lieberman, they all have taken a position in favor of cutting and running in Iraq.” (In fact, none of the leading Democratic candidates favors withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq immediately.)

Other Republican strategists, speaking unofficially, said some Democrats would likely pose bigger challenges than others.

“Looking at it right now, I’d worry about a Kerry-Clark ticket or a Kerry-Edwards ticket,” said GOP pollster Ed Goeas, referring to retired Army Gen. Wesley K. Clark and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards as potential vice presidential nominees. “I think Kerry-Edwards is about as tough as they could get. I still think Bush would win, but that might be the best in this field.”

In another symptom of incipient Kerrymania, Republican National Chairman Ed Gillespie devoted much of a speech Friday to a denunciation of the Massachusetts senator.

“Whether it’s economic policy, national security policy or social issues, John Kerry is out of sync with most voters,” Gillespie told the Conservative Political Action Conference. “Who would have guessed it? Ted Kennedy is the conservative senator from Massachusetts!”

Kerry’s campaign welcomed Gillespie’s attack as evidence that their candidate is on a roll. “These attacks make it pretty clear that they’re afraid of the thought of John Kerry standing on a stage debating George Bush,” said Kerry spokesman David Wade.

To be sure -- and perhaps to be careful, in case the Democratic race takes another twist -- Gillespie and Mehlman denounced several other candidates as well. Gillespie derided Edwards as a former trial lawyer; Mehlman said Clark, despite his military background, is just as liberal as the others.

But several Republicans said Kerry has become the Democrat they worry most about.

“I’d be more afraid of Kerry,” said Frank Luntz, who was an advisor to Newt Gingrich when the Georgia Republican served as House speaker. “They will say he’s more liberal than Ted Kennedy, but he doesn’t come across that way. His war record and the fact that he was a former prosecutor get a positive response.”

“He gets high numbers [of voters] saying he is someone they would trust in time of war,” Luntz said. “That’s Bush’s strength. And you don’t want an opponent who’s capable of coming at your strength.”

“Dean was clearly the desired candidate,” a Republican congressional aide said. “Republicans were all geared up for a McGovern-like blowout, and now it becomes more problematic.” He was referring to former Sen. George S. McGovern (D-S.D.), who lost the 1972 presidential election to incumbent President Richard M. Nixon by a landslide.

“A lot of Republicans are crying in their martinis,” the GOP aide said.

One reason Bush supporters were semi-rooting for Dean, in addition to their belief that he could be beaten, was the prospect of a campaign that would pit contrasting platforms against each other.

Such a campaign could accelerate the long-term growth of Republican ranks beyond the 2004 election, one official argued. But the tone of some GOP aides suggested that a zest for combat also made them relish the idea.

Several Republicans offered minority views. One GOP aide said he considered Edwards the most formidable potential nominee, because as a Southerner he might win more support in states that Bush had taken for granted. But a Bush campaign aide said Edwards had struck voters as too inexperienced.

Eddie Mahe Jr., a former deputy chairman of the Republican National Committee, said he thought Dean would be the toughest opponent.

“Dean could have been hard, because he would have motivated their base,” said Mahe, of the law firm Foley & Lardner, referring to the core Democratic vote. “It’s not clear that Kerry will be as successful at that.”

Mahe noted that Kerry and Dean share one important characteristic: They chose to refuse public funding for their primary-season campaigns, freeing them to raise as much money as they can. “If either Kerry or Dean wraps up the nomination early, the general election campaign [against Bush] will start immediately, because both sides will have the money to do it,” he said.

Any other Democratic candidate might face a long spring and summer without enough funds to counter early Bush campaign efforts effectively.

In any case, GOP aides said, they are already honing their critiques of Kerry as a Northeastern liberal -- “Dukakis with height,” said one, referring to former Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis, who lost the 1988 presidential election to George H.W. Bush, the current president’s father.

The Bush campaign will inevitably try to use Kerry’s Boston origins against him, the campaign strategist said.

“Massachusetts?” he said. “To somebody in Milwaukee, Wis., it signals things.”

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Times staff writers Jon Marino and Richard Simon contributed to this report.