Looking to ring up new year

Valentine’s Day lasts only 24 hours, but the music business is looking to the entire month of February as a big love-fest.

Thanks to a handful of potentially blockbuster releases, expectations are high for what frequently is a post-holidays doldrums period. On Feb. 3, rock and country fans are likely to flock to stores (and online sales sites) for new albums by Incubus and Kenny Chesney, respectively.

A week later, the music business and fans alike will get a giant, heart-shaped box of chocolates in the form of Norah Jones’ “Feels Like Home,” the follow-up to her nearly 8-million-selling, five-Grammy-Award-winning 2001 debut “Come Away With Me.”

And while the hip-hop and country crops seem a little thin, other areas of music are looking strong in the coming months with new albums from Janet Jackson, Kylie Minogue and Usher. A host of promising newcomers adds to a sense of cautious optimism in the much-plagued business -- with an extra boost from a Grammy Awards show (always a sales stimulant) that’s been moved up this year to Feb. 8 rather than the end of the month.

“We’re very encouraged by the release schedule in the early part of the year,” says Vince Szydlowski, senior director of product for the Virgin Entertainment Group, North America, which operates the Virgin Megastore outlets. “We’re very happy for having something when last year there was next to nothing.”

But can Jones repeat the phenomenal success of her debut, or will she join Alanis Morissette among those who only sold huge amounts of second albums rather than ridiculously huge amounts? Will Incubus (with 2.1 million U.S. sales of its last album) take its place at the top of the rock pile? Will Chesney (whose last album has sold more than 3 million) be this year’s Toby Keith? What newcomer might climb the charts?

Pop Eye turned to a panel of experts to predict the biggest new arrivals of the next few months, both overall and genre by genre. The participants: Billboard charts editor Geoff Mayfield; Virgin’s Szydlowski; MTV and MTV2 vice president of music programming Amy Doyle; pop station KIIS-FM (102.7) music director Julie Pilat; hip-hop radio KPWR-FM (105.9) assistant program director and music director E Man; rock outlet KROQ-FM (106.7) assistant program director Gene Sandbloom; and country station KZLA-FM (93.9) music director Tonya Campos.

Pop

Win: Norah Jones. The only question is how big.

“No matter what it does the first week people will say, ‘Gee, is that all there is?’ ” says Mayfield. “That’s a shame. She doesn’t have to match what she did last time to show she’s an artist we can count on for a long time.”

Place: Janet Jackson, title TBA (due in stores March 30). She seems untainted by her brother Michael’s scandals, and is booked to perform in the Super Bowl halftime show. “I think it could be a tossup between Janet and Norah,” says MTV’s Doyle.

Show: Kylie Minogue’s “Body Language” (Feb. 10).

Breakthrough: Robi Draco Rosa’s “Mad Love” (March 30). “I’d call him the Latin Lenny Kravitz -- very sexy, great songs, great lyrics, great performer,” says KIIS’s Pilat, of the singer who wrote and produced Ricky Martin’s biggest hits.

Worth watching: J.C. Chasez’s “Schizophrenic” (Jan. 27); “Queer Eye for the Straight Guy” soundtrack (Feb. 10).

Alternative rock

Win: Incubus’ “A Crow Left of Murder.” “The first single, ‘Megalomaniac,’ rocks hard,” says KROQ’s Sandbloom. “It’s been one of our most-requested songs since it debuted in December. The band raises the bar for itself on every release.”

Place: The Vines’ “Winning Days” (March 23). “It’s a great record, not all grungy, punky stuff, but some incredibly moving acoustic stuff as well,” says Szydlowski of the Australian band, whose 2002 debut, “Highly Evolved,” was part of the neo-garage wave’s first foray.

Show: Cypress Hill’s “Till Death to Us Part” (March 23). The hip-hop trio has long been part of the KROQ sphere.

Breakthrough: The Postal Service’s “Give Up.” Though released last year, the album is starting to take off, Sandbloom says.

Worth watching: Courtney Love’s “America’s Sweetheart” (Feb. 10).

Classic rock

Win: Aerosmith’s “Honkin’ on Bobo” (March 30). The Boston band plays the blues.

Place: Eric Clapton’s “Me & Mr. Johnson” (March 16).

Show: Melissa Etheridge’s “Lucky” (Feb. 10).

R&B;

Win: Usher’s “Confessions” (March 16). “The first single, ‘Yeah,’ featuring Lil Jon and Ludacris, has been huge,” says E Man. “This is more of a hip-hop sounding track for Usher.”

Place: Janet Jackson.

Show: Brandy, title TBA (May).

Worth watching: Babyface’s “A Love Story” (March 23)

Hip-hop

Win: Cypress Hill. “Members of the group are saying it’s going to be more hip-hop sounding, but going to incorporate reggae and alternative feels as well,” says E Man.

Place: Usher.

Show: D12 titleTBA (April). The Detroit group returns with help again from friend/mentor Eminem

Breakthrough: Knoc-turn’al, title TBA (Feb. 24) “He has a single out, ‘The Way I Am,’ featuring Snoop Dogg, and Dr. Dre’s on some tracks,” says E Man.

Worth watching: “Barbershop 2” soundtrack (Feb. 3); “The Good, the Bad and the Ugly” compilation from Violator management firm featuring clients 50 Cent, Missy Elliott, G Unit and others.

Country

Win: Chesney’s “When the Sun Goes Down.” “Could it be Toby Keith-sized?” says Szydlowski. “That’s what it feels like. But it’s up against Norah Jones that first week, which is a tough one.”

Overall

Win: Norah Jones.

Place: Usher.

Show: Janet Jackson.