Limping to the Finish Line

Assaulted and unsettled, millions of Californians head to the polls today to pick a governor, decide whether Los Angeles will cleave itself into parts and express their views on issues ranging from local growth to statewide transportation.

The two leading candidates for governor -- Democratic incumbent Gray Davis and Republican challenger Bill Simon Jr. -- led a small army of candidates who swarmed the state Monday to rally their most fervent followers -- and perhaps sway a fence-sitter here or there.

“We’ve got a water crisis,” Simon said at a stop in the Imperial Valley. “We’ve got an electricity crisis. We have a road crisis. We have a health-care crisis.”

Davis, who touched down in San Francisco, Fresno and Los Angeles, assailed Simon as too extreme for live-and-let-live Californians. “We are moving this state forward,” Davis exclaimed at a midday appearance at San Francisco’s Union Square. “And with your help, we’ll continue to move it forward, not backwards, as Mr. Simon wants to do.”

In Los Angeles, the two sides in the secession battle pressed their respective cases by hitting neighborhoods in Hollywood and the San Fernando Valley with precinct-walkers and a final wave of targeted phone calls.

Statewide, the television airwaves crackled with round-the-clock advertising, much of it negative, capping a relentless barrage that has left many Californians feeling more weary than inspired.

The eight-month general election campaign, which started with the moved-up primary, is the longest California has endured and could end in a record-low turnout.

Polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m., and voters can find their polling place by visiting www.smartvoter.org..

The secretary of state forecast a 58% turnout, with roughly 9 million of the registered voters casting ballots. That would match the low four years ago.

Other analysts were predicting an even lower turnout, given widespread distaste for the gubernatorial hopefuls -- polls found up to two-thirds of voters wanting other choices -- and anxieties over the economy, terrorism and scandals tainting everything from corporate America to the Catholic Church.

Many candidates helped contribute to that malaise with the bludgeoning tone of their campaigns, analysts said. “This election has never been about solving problems,” said Darry Sragow, a Democratic strategist involved in more than a half dozen Assembly races. “It’s all about who’s the lesser of the evils.”

Apart from the contest for governor, Californians will vote on seven other statewide offices, including open seats for controller, insurance commissioner, secretary of state and superintendent of public instruction. All 80 seats in the state Assembly are up for grabs -- at least in theory -- along with half the 40 seats in the state Senate.

Democrats were virtually certain to keep control of the Legislature, thanks to the status quo plan worked out by state lawmakers when they redrew California’s political boundaries. As a result of that deal, fewer than 10 of the 100 legislative races on today’s ballot are competitive.

The dynamic is similar in races for the House of Representatives. The state will gain a seat in Congress thanks to population growth through the 1990s, bringing California’s biggest-in-the-nation delegation to 53.

But only one of those contests is considered close: the race to replace Rep. Gary Condit in the Central Valley. Democrat Dennis Cardoza of Atwater is favored over Republican Dick Monteith of Modesto.

Both parties were hoping for upsets in House races elsewhere in the state, but the most likely outcome is a single-seat gain for Democrats, boosting their partisan advantage in Washington to 33-20.

Voters also will decide on seven statewide ballot measures, dealing with issues ranging from housing to water quality to the physical condition of California’s public schools.

Two of the measures would circumscribe state spending, continuing a trend of budgeting via the ballot box. The first, guaranteeing a portion of funds for after-school programs, is widely seen as a political test run for actor Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican who is leading the campaign for Proposition 49 while eyeing a bid for governor.

The second, Proposition 51, would permanently shift some motor vehicle sales taxes from the state’s general fund to pay for transportation projects.

Voters also will face local issues, from measures putting more cops on the streets of Oakland to a Berkeley initiative mandating the sale of earth-friendly coffee beans.

Topping it all is the race for governor, a contest that has consumed tens of millions of dollars and hundreds of hours of TV air time without ever seeming to capture the imagination of Californians.

Davis has struggled for more than a year with mediocre approval ratings stemming from his widely criticized handling of the electricity crisis and his aggressive fund-raising practices.

Even before he took office, Davis set a goal of $50 million for his reelection, and he easily surpassed that by raising close to $70 million. He sunk the biggest chunk into negative TV ads, starting in last winter’s GOP primary when he intervened to undermine the front-running Richard Riordan and boost Simon, his preferred opponent.

Once Simon prevailed, Davis launched a brutal series of ads attacking the businessman and rookie candidate as ethically shady and ideologically extreme. The negative assault did little to endear voters to Davis. But it scuffed Simon’s image so much that polls at the end of the campaign found him even less popular than the incumbent.

Today, Davis’ biggest concern is low voter turnout, and he exhorted his supporters to defy the forecasts of rampant disengagement. “We Democrats understand that voting is an act of patriotism,” Davis said Monday to a crowd of several hundred San Francisco supporters. “We turn out the vote!”

The governor, traveling the state with a full complement of Democratic office-seekers, forecast a party sweep of the statewide ticket, for the first time in more than 50 years. Among those hoping to make it happen was Gary Donnelly, who showed up for the governor’s San Francisco rally.

The 45-year-old welder from Michigan, who is homeless and unemployed, said he came to the rally in one of 14 vans of people recruited from homeless shelters, soup kitchens and other aid centers. “I’ve been Democrat all my life,” said Donnelly, wearing a pair of Davis campaign signs on his head to shield the bright autumn sun.

Others in the crowd said they, too, were promised $200 -- or $50 a day -- by the state Democratic Party to distribute campaign fliers and knock on doors from Saturday through today.

Stanley Marshall, 51, who had the weathered look of a life lived on the streets, said he was receiving free meals in addition to his $50 stipend.

The governor’s handpicked opponent, Simon, was something of an accidental aspirant. His strategists expected him to lose the March primary to Riordan, building name recognition along the way for some future campaign. Instead, he seized the GOP nomination with no general election strategy and little support from his own party establishment.

Simon’s problems were compounded by a general election campaign team racked with internal disputes and continued tensions with the White House.

He struggled with controversies over his taxes, a fraud verdict against his family investment firm -- later overturned -- and a flip-flop over his gay-rights position. Perhaps most damaging was a false attack on Davis’ fund-raising practices, which undercut Simon’s credibility.

Still, for all his many missteps, Simon remained within hailing distance at the end.

Campaigning Monday from the Imperial Valley to the Los Angeles suburbs, Simon predicted a late election night, as he repeatedly urged his backers to the polls.

“We are on the verge of victory,” Simon told about 100 cheering supporters at the Ontario Mills outlet mall. “We are confident we are going to put it across, but we need you to get out and vote.”

With polls finding many undecided voters, Simon scheduled an unusual pair of election day events, a stop in Fullerton and a final rally in San Diego. “We’re going to campaign until the last minute,” he said.

Whatever happens, both candidates will end up limping past the finish line. In addition to a low turnout, opinion surveys suggested there could be a record showing for minor-party candidates.

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Times staff writers Gregg Jones and Jeffrey L. Rabin contributed to this report.

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