SCOUTING REPORT
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STARTERS
He doesn’t talk much about them, but Shaquille O’Neal appears to be gaining on all of his injured parts. He removed the stitches from his finger this week, which meant he was feeling much better or was very bored. Either way, the Lakers expect O’Neal’s turn-around jumpers to start falling soon. The headline matchups among starters are Vlade Divac and/or Scot Pollard against O’Neal, Doug Christie against Kobe Bryant, and the Laker power forward of the day--Robert Horry, probably--against Chris Webber. The Kings give up too much in two of the three, and Webber, who is reticent on the inside to start with, is intimidated by O’Neal. In last year’s conference semifinals, Webber often opted for jump shots rather than test O’Neal or Horace Grant near the rim. The Kings will be without small forward Peja Stojakovic, who has a sprained ankle, for at least a game or two. He averaged 18.3 points in three regular-season games against the Lakers.
Edge: Lakers.
BENCH
Because of Stojakovic’s injury, the Kings have the option to start Hedo Turkoglu at small forward or Bobby Jackson at shooting guard, moving Christie to small forward. King Coach Rick Adelman tried both against the Dallas Mavericks. While the Lakers are vulnerable to quick backcourts, a fact that would tempt Adelman to try Jackson, the Lakers are too big and physical. So Adelman loses Turkoglu, who averaged 11.3 points in short minutes against the Lakers, from his bench for the short term. That leaves Jackson, Pollard, Gerald Wallace and Lawrence Funderburke. Jackson could become Lindsey Hunter’s defensive assignment, just as Tony Parker was late in the last series, particularly if Derek Fisher’s three-pointers aren’t falling. The Laker bench got a little deeper in the final two games of the San Antonio series, when Hunter made a big three-pointer late in Game 5 and stayed with Parker. Against the Spurs, Samaki Walker scored on put-backs and from the elbows, played gamely on defense and took a few rebounds. Brian Shaw has made five of 12 three-pointers, but Devean George has missed 12 of 14. If George regained his midseason proficiency--both in shooting and decision-making--the Lakers would be better here. Otherwise, Jackson is the best bench player in the series.
Edge: Kings.
OFFENSE
What we know from the Kings’ last series, against the Mavericks: The Kings score at will against no defense. What we know from the Kings’ first-round series, against the Utah Jazz, which had some defensive conscience: They can be defended. Before they averaged 110.2 points against the Mavericks, the Kings didn’t score more than 91 in four games against the Jazz. Still, after running and scoring and having a good old time for 11 days in the conference semifinals, the Kings are in an offensive rhythm, even without Stojakovic, their No. 2 scorer in the regular season. The Kings averaged nearly 105 points in the regular season and will try to push the tempo against the Lakers, who prefer to run the offense through O’Neal. The Lakers have the best one-two scorers in the league in O’Neal and Bryant, but O’Neal isn’t entirely sound and Bryant had to do a lot on his own against the Spurs. The Kings can get a little from a lot of places, and Webber might have something to prove after appearing to pout through parts of last year’s series. After scoring 13.7 points a game in the regular season, Mike Bibby has averaged 18.3 points in nine playoff games. He has made 16 of 33 three-pointers. And, despite all of the new offense, even his assists are up.
Edge: Kings.
DEFENSE
Come playoff time, the Lakers not only believe in defense, they’re sure it is the reason they’ve won consecutive NBA titles. O’Neal became more active as the San Antonio series went on, even defending Tim Duncan straight-up and with reasonable success late in games. When O’Neal is moving and blocking shots and threatening harm, the Lakers defend the perimeter and Bryant is freed to patrol the passing lanes and help from the weak side. One of the themes of last year’s four-game sweep of the Kings was Rick Fox’s defense on Stojakovic and the Lakers’ team effort on Webber. The Kings are on the long list of teams that cannot stop O’Neal or Bryant. They try to defend O’Neal with the finesse of Divac and Pollard, both of whom fall down a lot to get the attention of the referees. The strategy is occasionally effective and annoys O’Neal. Christie, rangy and fast, tries hard but cannot stay with Bryant, who has already run through Ruben Patterson and Bruce Bowen with relative ease in the playoffs.
Edge: Lakers.
COACHING
Adelman doesn’t seem to approve of Phil Jackson. When the late-season conversations were about the Pacific Division race, and whether a March game in Sacramento was important to it, Adelman said it wasn’t. Jackson said it was. Adelman took it personally. “Really, well,” he said when told of the differing opinion. “He obviously knows a lot more than everybody else, me included. I think Phil’s just talking. But what amazes me is people keep listening and taking him seriously.” Something about the 10 championship rings, eight of them as a coach, apparently. For all of the under-coaching in the regular season, Jackson has the Lakers’ attention in the postseason. They play his defense and try to run his offense. Adelman deserves a lot of credit for taking the Kings to the division title, and for creating a strong chemistry after Webber nearly left for free agency after last season. His players clearly trust him.
Edge: Lakers.
KEY TO THE SERIES
The Lakers are without home-court advantage and the Kings believe in the momentum that started in the regular season, but the Lakers blink wearily and feel as if they’ve done this a thousand times. The Lakers won twice in Sacramento in last year’s playoffs and once during the regular season. They are resilient and tough, strengthened by their belief in Jackson. They’ve seen their teammates do critical things at the most critical times, both early in series and closing them out. When all fails, the Lakers have two offensive options in O’Neal and Bryant. The series will turn, eventually, on the experience gained in the past 21/2 postseasons, the last two concluding in Laker championships.
Edge: Lakers.
PICK
Lakers in 6.
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