The Times Film Report

This report is based on projections of total U.S. box-office gross from a consensus of industry sources and studio financial models. The U.S. and Canadian returns (about 55% of gross) represent only 20% of a film’s final revenue, which includes overseas theatrical, video and TV income. The industry marketing average of $30 million per film is factored into these profit equations, as is the relative strength of specific film genres in foreign markets. Results for the weekend of Nov. 9-11:

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Highlights:

* “Shallow Hal” should make a solid profit for Fox.

* “Heist” will lose some money, although most foreign rights have been pre-sold.

* “Life as a House” won’t quite make it into the black.

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$$ Mega-Moneymakers ($50 million or more in profit)

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Projected Box- Estimated U.S. box-office office cost, in receipts, Movie title Studio rank millions in millions Monsters, Inc. Disney/Pixar 1 $115 $210

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$ Moneymakers ($10 million or more in profit)

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Projected Box- Estimated U.S. box-office office cost, in receipts, Movie title Studio rank millions in millions Training Day Warner Bros. 10 $45 $78 Shallow Hal Fox 2 40 62 The One Sony/Revolution 3 49 55 Serendipity Miramax 12 28 50 Thirteen Ghosts WB/Sony 7 20 40

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? Tossups ($5 million or more in profit/loss)

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Box- Estimated office cost, in Movie title Studio rank millions K-Pax Universal/Intermedia 6 $48 Domestic Disturbance Paramount 4 53 From Hell Fox 11 35

Projected U.S. box-office receipts, Movie title in millions K-Pax $52 Domestic Disturbance 45 From Hell 33

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Losers (less than $5 million)

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Box- Estimated office cost, in Movie title Studio rank millions Riding in Cars With Boys Sony 9 $48 Heist WB/Franchise 5 35 Life as a House New Line 8 17

Projected U.S. box-office receipts, Movie title in millions Riding in Cars With Boys $32 Heist 24 Life as a House 11

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Notes: Cost estimates are for production only. Only half of box-office receipts come back to the studio.

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