Penguins Need to Analyze This

The Pittsburgh Penguins looked like a beaten team during a 5-0 loss Saturday in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference finals against the New Jersey Devils. They sounded like a beaten team Sunday. Monday’s day off only delayed their inevitable exit from the playoffs.

A New Jersey victory tonight in Game 5 at the Meadowlands will propel the Devils into the Stanley Cup finals for the second consecutive season. The Devils, with fewer injuries and better rounded than the Colorado Avalanche, will be favored by many to win their second consecutive championship.

Pittsburgh’s future is uncertain.

Like officials of the Detroit Red Wings (a first-round loser to the Kings) and the Dallas Stars (a second-round loser to the St. Louis Blues), Pittsburgh’s are poised to move a wrecking ball into position.

Unlike the Red Wings and Stars, however, the Penguins aren’t too old or too stale to contend. Pittsburgh’s impending roster demolition has nothing to do with the inability of its players to compete. It has everything to do with the franchise’s inability to pay its top players, especially Jaromir Jagr.

So, stick a fresh videotape into the VCR tonight if you want to preserve Jagr’s final game as a Penguin for posterity.

Chances are better than good that he soon will be traded.

Neither the Kings nor the Mighty Ducks are expected to be interested in acquiring Jagr. Each team traded a high-priced player this season to add depth while reducing their respective payrolls. The Kings sent defenseman Rob Blake to Colorado for defenseman Aaron Miller and winger Adam Deadmarsh. The Ducks traded winger Teemu Selanne to the San Jose Sharks for goalie Steve Shields and winger Jeff Friesen.

Both local teams are trying to keep their 2001-02 payrolls below the $40-million mark. Adding Jagr would be a payroll-busting move.

The grim reality is that Pittsburgh is a small-market club with an outdated arena and limited revenue streams. A remarkable playoff run notwithstanding, the Penguins don’t have the money to pay Jagr beyond this season. His contract calls for about $20 million over the next two seasons, and the Penguins can’t afford it.

The key to the Penguins’ survival in Pittsburgh is a new rink to replace Mellon Arena, the league’s oldest. Estimates run $175-$215 million for a new 19,500-seat arena adjacent to Mellon in downtown Pittsburgh.

The Penguins don’t have the money for that either, however, and it’s unlikely that the city or the state will fork it over the way they did for new stadiums for baseball’s Pirates and football’s Steelers.

Jagr has set himself up to be a martyr, asking for a trade to be made soon after the season ends. But neither he nor Mario Lemieux, his linemate and owner, has put up much of a fight against the Devils. Jagr seems resigned to the end of the series and his tenure in Pittsburgh.

After Saturday’s loss, he said: “I’ve never been that embarrassed in my hockey life. . . . You know, if we’re going to play the same way [tonight], we’re going to lose the series. There’s no question about it. Whatever we do, it’s not working. Whatever they do, it’s working against us. That’s why they scored eight goals in the last two games and we scored none.”

Medical Center

Fredrik Olausson, a former Duck defenseman, knows what Colorado’s Peter Forsberg is going through. Forsberg had his spleen removed mere hours after the Avalanche had defeated the Kings in Game 7 of their second-round playoff series.

Olausson underwent emergency surgery to remove his spleen after a Swiss League game in March.

Two months have passed, and Olausson has been cleared to participate only in light exercise. But Olausson recently told Swedish reporters that he expects Forsberg to make a full recovery.

“If Peter wants to, he’ll be back on the ice this coming season,” Olausson said. “Peter is young and strong. He will definitely recover from this. The first week is not fun at all. You can feel that someone has been inside your stomach. It gets a little better after a while, but it takes time.”

Mr. Secretive

Pierre Gauthier, Duck president and general manager, continues to speak to coaching candidates. Naturally, he won’t identify them, or say when he’ll pick one to replace Guy Charron.

Among those said to be on Gauthier’s list are former Montreal coach Alain Vigneault, former Boston coach Pat Burns, Colorado assistant Bryan Trottier, King assistant Dave Tippett and Detroit assistants Dave Lewis and Barry Smith.

“I’m well into the process,” Gauthier said. “You’ve got to find the right fit. I’ve spoken to a lot of people. It’s interesting to hear what people think of your team. I’m hearing a lot of good things.”

The new coach will be the team’s fourth in five seasons since Ron Wilson was sacked May 20, 1997. Wilson will begin his fifth season with the Washington Capitals this fall.

Slap Shots

Scotty Bowman is expected to meet this week with Ken Holland, Detroit Red Wing general manager, to discuss his future as the team’s coach. Bet on Bowman, who will be 68 in September, returning for his ninth season behind the Red Wing bench.

It’s uncertain what the departure of Dave Checketts as president of Madison Square Garden and its tenants, the Knicks and Rangers, means for the hockey club. Glen Sather, the Rangers’ general manager, hopes to sign such free agents as Rob Blake and Joe Sakic if they become available July 1. Despite Checketts’ willingness to pay top dollar for free agents, the Rangers have missed the playoffs four consecutive seasons.

Parting shot: Why would anybody be surprised that Colorado goalie Patrick Roy outplayed St. Louis’ Roman Turek in the Western Conference finals? Roy is headed for the Hall of Fame. Turek hasn’t yet proved himself worthy of the Hall of Pretty Good.