Chill Factor

Roll through the nation’s radio dials these days and listen closely--you just might hear the sound of the youth-pop wave beginning to ebb. You won’t be hearing it in what the Top 40 stations play, but in what they’re not playing.

The bonanza of boy bands and teen queens--led by Britney Spears, the Backstreet Boys and ‘N Sync--has been the dominant success story in pop the past two years, but for months industry leaders at record companies, retail and radio have whispered: “How long can this last?�

At radio, the groundswell opinion now says the end is near.

“It’s as if there’s a sense by a lot of radio programmers that now is the time that they’re supposed to end the cycle,� says Sky Daniels, general manager of Radio & Records, an industry trade publication. “It’s definitely out there, you can see it in the numbers.�

Take Spears’ new song, “Stronger,� which has been one of the best-selling singles in the country for weeks and reached No. 1 last month. On the newest Billboard magazine airplay chart, though, it’s nowhere to be found among the 100 top songs at pop radio.

The newest songs from ‘N Sync and the Backstreet Boys have fared better at Top 40 radio, but neither is dominating the playlists as their hits did just a few months ago. And it’s not just the old familiar faces getting the chilly treatment--the new youth-pop squad O-Town is No. 5 on the album chart, and its song “Liquid Dreams� has been a fixture at the top of the sales chart for a month. But you won’t find that song among the top airplay songs either.

All of this prompted Billboard to write recently that radio has “turned up its nose� at the pop stars and that “times, they are a-changin’ in the world of youth-oriented pop music, even for seemingly untouchable heroes.�

Considering the still-strong album sales of the genre, the radio trend may not be a response to any fan fatigue among those loyal to the acts, says Jeff Pollack, a consultant to more than 100 radio stations across the country.

“It’s hard to say it’s cooling off because it’s still so enormously successful: the tours, the album sales, everything else. But if it’s leveling off at radio, I think the reason is some Top 40 stations want to show more of a multidimensional sound so listeners aren’t hearing the same thing every time they turn the radio on.�

All this is creating headaches for Joe Riccitelli, the vice president of pop promotion at Jive Records, the powerhouse label in the youth-pop movement with Spears, ‘N Sync and the Backstreeters on the roster.

Riccitelli spends much of his time lobbying pop radio leaders to play Jive acts, and that job has gotten harder, not easier, as Spears and ‘N Sync have reached superstar saturation levels.

“The way I learned it, pop radio was supposed to reflect pop culture,� Riccitelli said. “But I think sometimes programmers over-think things and lose their way. That’s where we are with Britney. I don’t see anyone questioning the [youth-pop] trend right now except for pop radio.�

Riccitelli says radio programmers at pop stations are not as fervent about youth pop as their listeners are, which leads them to tire more quickly of individual songs. In addition, many programmers have watched the cycles of music fads through the years and assume that the current craze is short-lived. “That may be part of it,� he says.

Riccitelli isn’t the only one who sees an over-eagerness among radio programmers to prove their prowess as forecasters.

“Programmers are saying, ‘At any moment this is going to go, and I want to be the first one to proclaim it,’ � Daniels said. “They want to be trend-setting. They don’t want to be the last one to pull out. . . . Sometime the cycles change because there is a backlash from the fans, but you have to ask yourself: Do you see any backlash from the fans right now toward Britney Spears? The answer is no.�

Radio programmers, however, place much of their taste-making trust in “call-out research,� their ongoing surveys of listeners, Pollack says. While the most ardent fans will barrage a station with requests for their favorite acts and scoop up all their albums, it’s these surveys that the radio industry has found to be the most accurate antennae of their general audience’s opinion.

“Sometimes records that sell don’t research well, and that’s the barometer,� Pollack said. “What’s happening with the Spears song, clearly, is it’s not working. So radio decided to bail on it even though it’s selling. . . . The research shows that while fans are buying it, they’re super-young fans. If you want 18- to 34-year-olds and it’s only teens, you don’t play it. But that’s the reason, not the personal feelings of programming people. These people are not in the business of avoiding things that are popular.�

This apparent disconnect and the assorted theories about its cause have been a much-discussed topic in the music industry in recent weeks, says Jay Marose, a partner in the music management company Cherry Miller Kane. Marose had the vantage point of a front-row seat during the youth-pop explosion in his former job as publicity director for Trans Continental Records, the Florida hit factory that first delivered ‘N Sync, the Backstreet Boys, O-Town and Aaron Carter to the pop scene.

Will Less Radio Play Hurt Album Sales?

“The people who program these stations are older and they are largely fans of rock, and I think they have some resentment toward these pop stars and their success,� Marose said. “You have this situation now where the most passionate fans of music, the people that are buying the most records, aren’t hearing the music on the radio.�

Though Daniels predicts the radio flight from teen pop will prematurely end the genre’s life, Marose sees the biggest stars chugging along on their own power.

“Established acts don’t necessarily need radio to drive their album sales,� Marose said. “But radio is vital to break new acts. O-Town isn’t getting radio airplay, but they had their own TV show. How do you launch the next group that doesn’t have that?�

MTV has not followed the radio reduction of teen pop, according to Tom Calderone, senior vice president of music and talent for the powerful music channel. Part of that is due to the increased variety of forums afforded to a video channel. Besides videos, MTV can present Spears and others in concert footage, talk shows, award galas, etc., which means artists don’t “burn out� with the audience as quickly as they do from a radio station repeating the same single over and over.

Calderone, a former radio programmer and consultant, says an even more important distinction is audience goal: MTV is thrilled to tap a young audience while most radio stations aspire to get an older demographic.

“I think where Top 40 radio is right now is that Britney, Backstreet Boys and ‘N Sync are still part of the fabric of those stations, but they have to look at the Lenny Kravitzes, the Jennifer Lopezes, the Matchbox Twenties of the world because they will bring that older audience to the radio station. . . . Our audience feedback is still extremely strong, and the economics of television as far as demographics go are different than what radio has to deliver.�

But do these pop heroes even need Top 40 radio? Spears’ name was the most-searched-for among music stars on the Internet, and she’s about to begin work on a new film. Spears, ‘N Sync and the Backstreet Boys are still staples on youth-embracing Disney Radio and Nickelodeon, and all three acts had a global stage last weekend as part of the Super Bowl.

“We still view pop radio as a big part of the plans for all of these artists, a very important part,� Jive Records’ Riccitelli said. “It’s not the only thing, certainly, but I don’t want to know if we can do without it.�