So Far, Southern California Eludes the Flu

In a year of rising health-care costs and faltering HMOs, here’s a bright spot: So far, we’ve had an easy flu season.

For the last few years, Southern California emergency rooms have overflowed with flu patients at Christmas and New Year’s, prompting doctors to urge all but the sickest people to stay home lest they wait hours for medical attention.

Not this year.

“We might actually make it through this entire holiday season without having a flu crisis, which I think is unheard of,� said Dr. David Dassey, deputy chief of the acute communicable disease control unit at the L.A. County health department.

This year the county increased to 20 the number of doctors who voluntarily submit weekly reports on flu cases and perform cultures to confirm them, part of a program that gives health officials a snapshot of local influenza activity. “We have more people looking for it and finding less this year� compared with last year, Dassey said.

During the week ending Dec. 7, these doctors had confirmed only three cases of Type A influenza, all among children. By that time last year, they had confirmed 41 cases; by the first week of December 1999, they had found 91 cases, Dassey said. The number of flu cases is typically much higher than that because these doctors are only a fraction of those treating patients. The special monitoring program has since confirmed a fourth case in L.A. County, but Dassey acknowledged that may represent just a portion of what’s being seen among private doctors and ERs.

Dassey said that what’s happening--or not happening--in Los Angeles County is being mirrored statewide. In fact, it’s pretty quiet nationwide too. As of Dec. 22, the most recent date for which the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has released data, flu activity was running below epidemic level. Only Alaska had widespread flu. Colorado and Vermont had regional outbreaks, while 39 states (including California) had only sporadic activity, five had no flu and three did not report.

But it’s not yet time to let down your guard.

Flu season continues through March. With vaccine still available, it’s not too late to get protection. A flu vaccination may keep you from spending a week in bed. Because the vaccine takes 10 days to two weeks to reach peak effectiveness, it’s likely to protect you if and when the 2001-02 season hits.