Brother, What a Dilemma

We can all relax going into Friday’s announcement of this year’s Grammy nominations, right?

After the furor surrounding the nomination of X-rated rapper Eminem for best album in the 2000 balloting, this round in the annual competition should be a relatively calm affair.

How outraged can anyone get over a best album field built around two of the most acclaimed attractions in rock history, Bob Dylan and U2? The only uproar would be if either was snubbed by the recording academy.

So why am I starting to get tense?

I thought Dylan and U2 were both cinches to be among the five picks in this category, until I started talking with some Grammy voters and other industry observers who pride themselves on handicapping the race each year.

The prevailing winds: Although U2’s “All That You Can’t Leave Behind� seems safe, Dylan’s “Love and Theft� could be problematic, despite the overwhelming critical acclaim it has received.

The unconventional opus is harder to get a handle on than 1997’s more cohesive “Time Out of Mind,� which earned Dylan a best album trophy. Even though one Grammy win traditionally begets more, it’s conceivable that the voters could return to their old wariness of Dylan.

That would be a big mistake.

The only thing the academy should consider is the quality of the record. But that’s a measurement that has eluded the voters before.

Here’s what to expect Friday in three of the most high-profile of the 99 Grammy categories, an exhausting system touching on everything from pop and rock to classical and jazz to bluegrass and polka.

Best Album

U2 still appears to have a nomination wrapped up. The only thing that Grammy voters favor more than mainstream best sellers is past winners--and U2 scores high in both categories.

The thoughtful and inspiring “All That You Can’t Leave Behind� has sold more than 3.2 million copies in the U.S., and the band has won an armload of Grammys over the years, including best album in 1988 for “The Joshua Tree� and best record for “Beautiful Day� earlier this year. (“Beautiful Day,� a track from “Can’t Leave Behind,� was eligible in the best record category because it was released before the Sept. 30, 2000, cutoff date. The album was released after the deadline, which makes it and other U2 singles from the album eligible in the current voting.)

Dylan, the most respected songwriter of the modern pop era, has long been a thorn in the Grammys’ side.

For years, academy voters were ridiculed as being out of touch because of their tendency to honor conservative bestsellers rather than the bold, independent new forces reshaping pop music.

There is no greater evidence than the academy’s failure to honor Dylan’s legendary ‘60s albums, which helped establish rock ‘n’ roll as an art form.

Uncomfortable with its history of omissions, the Grammy brain trust changed the nomination process in 1995 to help upgrade the standards used to select entries in the key categories.

The new system, in which a screening committee, rather than the full Grammy membership, selects the final nominees, has done a commendable job of recognizing creative new forces.

Thanks in large part to the committee system, adventurous artists such as Beck, the Smashing Pumpkins and Radiohead have been nominated in the best album category.

But a failure to nominate “Love and Theft� would not only hurt the credibility of the committee, but also would raise suspicions that the “Time Out of Mind� nomination wasn’t so much a recognition of a great work as it was an opportunity to make up for years of ignoring Dylan.

“Love and Theft� is a more radical album than “Time Out of Mind,� but one of equal imagination and passion. Clearly the most commanding album of 2001, the collection celebrates both the sheer joy of music-making and Dylan’s unique ability to provoke us with his soulful poetry.

“Love and Theft� may still make the cut, but don’t take it for granted.

After U2, the most likely best album nominee is the “O Brother, Where Art Thou?� soundtrack, a feel-good salute to American roots music that has already been named album of the year by the Country Music Assn. (Like the U2 album, the soundtrack came out in 2000, but after the Sept. 30 deadline for last year’s eligibility list.)

Alicia Keys, the 20-year-old pop-R&B; sensation whose “Fallin’� was one of the year’s most engaging singles, seemed like a certainty in this category, but a backlash has been developing in recent months among those who feel her debut album, “Songs in A Minor,� doesn’t justify all the media acclaim and more than 3 million in sales.

Keys’ moving performance of Donny Hathaway’s “Someday We’ll All Be Together� on the Sept. 21 telethon should have erased any doubts about her talent, but remaining questions could leave the door open for another impressive R&B-pop; arrival, India.Arie.

The latter’s “Acoustic Soul� was another solid work, highlighted by “Video,� which recalls the confident grace of Lauryn Hill.

Because the committee tends to strive for a balance of genres in its best album choices, it’s helpful to look at specific pop areas when searching for other potential nominees.

If Dylan doesn’t make the cut, the second rock slot could go to Radiohead’s “Amnesiac.� The respected, artful British rock band’s last two albums were both nominated in this category. Jazz artists rarely get nominated for best album, but singer Diana Krall has won a best album nomination and “The Look of Love� could return her to the finals.

Rap is not the first place you look for nominees in this category either, but OutKast’s “Stankonia� is a strong contender because it is a dynamic work and is free of the offensive language of Eminem. This would be a bold and welcome choice, because rap continues to be undervalued as an art form.

In the mainstream pop-rock world, the Dave Matthews Band seems to be a favorite among Grammy voters, so he’s dangerous in this category even though the production on “Everyday� caused a feverish debate among the band’s fans.

Elton John’s “Songs From the West Coast� is the veteran artist’s strongest album in decades, and he is long overdue for major Grammy recognition. He should also be on Grammy voters’ minds because of his duet with Eminem during the last Grammy ceremony. The downside is that the album wasn’t a hit.

In the end, go with U2, “O Brother� and “OutKast�--leaving Dylan, Keys, India.Arie and everyone else battling for the remaining two spots.

Best Record

U2 is the odds-on favorite, unless its two eligible recordings--the anxious “Stuck in a Moment You Can’t Get Out Of� and the soaring “Walk On�--end up canceling out each other in the voting.

Keys and India.Arie also have strong selling points in their respective hit singles--�Fallin’,� a dramatic soul-pop tale of romantic turmoil, and “Video,� a winning statement of self-worth.

If OutKast picks up a best album nomination, its momentum could also lead to a nomination here for either of its two entries, the explosive “B.O.B.,� which features as intoxicating a sound as rap has produced since Dr. Dre and Tupac Shakur teamed up on “California Love� five years ago, and the more refined “Ms. Jackson.�

In an otherwise weak field, Dido’s “Thank You� could snare a nomination. The record seems dated now, but it was the melodic heart of Eminem’s “Stan,� the cautionary narrative that even the rapper’s critics acknowledge as a masterpiece of pop.

Five for Fighting’s “Superman� and Enya’s “Only Time� are both evocative works that the pop world turned to for comfort in the weeks after the Sept. 11 attacks, and they could both benefit in the voting from the sentiment.

Best bets: U2, Keys, India.Arie and then a roll of the dice to see which of the year’s hit singles caught the committee’s ear.

Along with those cited above, the possibilities stretch from the Christina Aguilera, Lil’ Kim, Mya and Pink rendition of “Lady Marmalade� to Staind’s “It’s Been Awhile� to Nelly Furtado’s “I’m Like a Bird� to ...

Best New Artist

You can put Keys and India.Arie on the final ballot now. The question is, who will challenge them?

On talent alone, the other nominees should be drawn from a stylish field that includes Ryan Adams, Coldplay, Furtado and Rufus Wainwright. But those hopefuls will have to battle David Gray, Five for Fighting, Pink, Lifehouse and rock-rap upstarts Linkin Park for ballot slots.

The 44th annual Grammy ceremony will be held Feb. 27 at Staples Center and televised by CBS.

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Robert Hilburn, The Times’ pop music critic, can be reached at [email protected].