Upgraded Missiles Found Less Accurate

By PETER PAE

Aug. 9, 2001 12 AM PT

TIMES STAFF WRITER

A $4.5-billion Air Force program to upgrade aging Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles has come under fire following tests showing the refurbished missiles are less accurate and have a shorter range than the ones they are replacing, according to interviews and internal Pentagon documents.

The test results come as the Bush administration is proposing to disarm all Peacekeeper MX ICBMs, which would leave the 1960s-vintage Minuteman III as the mainstay of the nation’s land-based nuclear arsenal.

Hoping to extend the life of the Minuteman, the Pentagon last year quietly began installing new guidance and propulsion systems on 500 missiles currently housed in hardened silos in Wyoming, Montana and North Dakota.

But according to internal assessments obtained by The Times, the upgraded models either had “miss distances” that were “considerably larger” than their predecessors or had “reduction in range” during several tests last year.

The assessments concluded the tests “did not decisively demonstrate that the accuracy key performance parameters had been achieved.”

Defense analysts said the problems are not severe enough to jeopardize the missile’s overall effectiveness. But it could mean added costs for taxpayers, as the Pentagon reports suggest the shortcomings stemmed from the Air Force’s decision to try to upgrade the missiles on the cheap, without a full-bore overhaul.

Air Force officials initially chalked up the problems to development jitters that could be corrected, but two follow-up tests in the last six months raised alarms within the Pentagon, according to one source familiar with the program. The most recent test in June showed once again that an upgraded missile was not as accurate.

“The Air Force now agrees there is a problem,” said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity because some of the information is classified.

The test assessments were written by the Pentagon’s Office for Test and Evaluation, which declined to comment on the results, saying the documents were classified.

The Air Force, which is running the program, also declined interviews but issued a statement Wednesday downplaying the test assessments. It said two test flights were conducted for the new propulsion system, one of which was prematurely terminated during flight after a booster failed to separate.

The separation problem was unrelated to the upgrade program, the statement said, adding that all test objectives for the new propulsion system “were successfully met in the two test flights.”

The Air Force also said it completed six flight tests of missiles with the new guidance system.

“Test results to date indicate a small accuracy bias that does not affect the overall weapon system effectiveness,” the statement said. “A software update is planned over the next year to correct the bias.”

The costs of that software upgrade and the actual performance record of the upgraded missiles were not addressed in the statement. It also was not clear by how much the refurbished missiles missed their mark. The current Minuteman can hit a target within a 360-foot radius.

A spokeswoman for TRW Inc., the main contractor for the upgrade, also declined to comment about the tests, saying they were classified. She did say that “we’re in the early stages of a flight test program” and described the problems as “routine.”

“We’re extremely confident that if you ask the Air Force, this program has their full support,” said spokeswoman Janis Lamar.

But the source familiar with the program said the problems are more severe, and Air Force officials have begun reviewing other options that could be costly, including a more comprehensive upgrade or scrapping the upgrades altogether.

“This has happened enough times now that the Air Force is agreeing it needs to do something,” the source said.

The $4.5-billion program was designed to make the 30-year-old Minuteman functional until 2020. The Pentagon already has spent $600 million upgrading computers in the control room where missile operators launch the missiles. Upgrading the propulsion system, which entails replacing the solid propellent in the rocket, is expected to cost $2.6 billion, while modernizing the guidance system is slated to cost $1.9 billion. About three dozen missiles have been upgraded so far under a program that is scheduled to last until 2008.

Defense analysts also said problems with the upgrades could hinder Bush’s plan to dismantle the Peacekeeper MX ICBM program, which the president is seeking in hopes of appeasing Russia’s concerns about his push to build a more robust national missile defense system.

“With the MX missiles being retired, the reliability and accuracy of the Minuteman will be all the more important,” said Philip E. Coyle, a senior advisor for the Center for Defense Information, a Washington-based think tank, and a former Pentagon chief for test and evaluation.

According to sources and Pentagon documents, the upgrades appear to have been doomed from the beginning.

Citing costs, the Air Force insisted on retaining the Minuteman’s old inertial measurement unit, the brains of the guidance system developed in the 1960s, while refurbishing only the electronics around it, such as the computer, signal converters and power units.

In replacing the propulsion system, the Air Force was confronted with having to use materials that are environmentally acceptable, while disregarding those that now are prohibited by the Environmental Protection Agency.

The Pentagon report said “the requirement to use environmentally acceptable materials has increased Propulsion Replacement Program stage weights and slightly reduced the total propellant volume. These factors indicate a reduced overall range performance.”

A Minuteman III has a range of about 6,000 miles, according to the Federation of American Scientists. It is unclear, however, how much of its range was diminished, because the information is classified.

Defense analysts, who were told of the test results Wednesday, said they were puzzled by the accuracy problems, because the requirements weren’t that onerous. In fact, the Pentagon just wanted the upgraded Minuteman to have the same capabilities as its older model.

“How they would allow it to go uncorrected, I’m at a loss to understand,” said John Pike, a defense policy analyst for GlobalSecurity.org, an Alexandria, Va.-based think thank. “It’s particularly puzzling, since Minuteman III has been around so long and what they’re trying to do doesn’t involve path- breaking technology.”

Moreover, the companies making the upgrades also helped develop the more modern guidance system on the Peacekeeper MX, a long-range missile capable of carrying 10 warheads in its nose. “With the fact that [the Minuteman] has been continuously modernized and maintained and overhauled, it certainly led me to believe that the latest upgrade was a low-risk undertaking and not the sort of thing that would have a shortfall in performance,” Pike said.

The Minuteman and Peacekeeper missiles represent the land-based leg of a nuclear triad that includes the Air Force’s B-52 and B-2 bombers and the Navy’s Trident nuclear submarines. Bush has proposed eliminating all 50 Peacekeeper missiles.

How the test shortfalls will play out politically is unclear, because the U.S. has been looking to reduce its stockpile of nuclear weapons with the collapse of the Soviet Union and Cold War tensions.

Under a 1994 U.S.-Russian pact, the two nations no longer aim their long-range nuclear missiles at each other. The missiles are set on a trajectory that ends in the ocean, although pre-programmed wartime targets are stored in the missile’s computer and can be switched on within 10 seconds.

Two Air Force officers sealed in a fortified capsule 100 feet below ground operate the control room where, with the turn of their keys in unison, they can start the sequence to launch a Minuteman III missile. The missiles each hold three nuclear warheads capable of wiping out several major cities.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Upgrading Minuteman Missiles

The Pentagon is upgrading the guidance system in the Cold War-era Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile. Here’s a look at the missile in action:

Guidance system keeps missile on correct trajectory for warheads to be launched. Guidance system points each bomb to a slightly different target. Once warheads are released, gravity guides them to their targets.

Post-boost control system

1. First stage motor fires and drops off.

2. Second stage drops off about two minutes after launch.

3. Third-stage nosecone drops off.

* Length: 59.9 feet

* Diameter: 5.5 feet

* Weight: 79,432 pounds

* Range: 6,000-plus miles

* Ceiling: 700 miles

* Payload: Three nuclear warheads

* Launch: From underground silos

* U.S. arsenal: 500