Bush Holds Slim Lead as Nomination Is at Hand

PHILADELPHIA —  As the Republican National Convention opens today, George W. Bush holds a narrow lead over Vice President Al Gore as voters increasingly see sharply contrasting strengths in the two candidates, a Times Poll has found.

Bush leads Gore by 44% to 39% among all registered voters, with his margin based on overwhelming support from Republicans and a slim advantage among independents, the survey found. But all signs in the poll point toward a competitive and closely fought race through the fall.

Each man has established clear advantages on some of the personal characteristics and issues at the campaign’s core: Far more voters, for instance, consider Bush a strong leader--but Gore has a greater advantage on experience. Similarly, Bush holds a large advantage on defense policy and has neutralized the traditional Democratic edge on education, but voters continue to prefer Gore on health care and Social Security. And on perhaps the most important measure--which candidate can best keep the economy prosperous--the two battle to a virtual dead-heat, with Gore holding a razor-thin edge.

The survey also measured which voters appear most likely to cast a ballot in November. Among that smaller group of probable voters, Bush’s lead expanded to 51% to 42%. That’s mostly because his lead among men considered likely to vote is considerably larger than his lead among all male voters.

The poll found that Dick Cheney, Bush’s choice as vice president, appears to be giving the ticket a modest lift. Overall, one-fifth of all the registered voters said they were more likely to support Bush because of Cheney, while just one-tenth said they would be less likely. Still, there were signs that the Democratic offensive against his voting record was taking a toll: One-third of voters say they consider Cheney more conservative than themselves. And those voters were more likely to say Cheney’s selection would reduce their support for Bush.

The Times Poll, supervised by Poll Director Susan Pinkus, surveyed 1,058 registered voters Thursday through Saturday; it has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Bush’s lead over Gore among all registered voters in the poll is smaller than in some other surveys taken in the middle of last week, following Cheney’s selection. But the new Times Poll is comparable to the findings of an NBC-Wall Street Journal poll, also taken the latter part of last week.

“Polls are snapshots in time, and opinions about this campaign are still very fluid,” Pinkus said.

Though the poll found receptivity to third-party candidates in principle, it found little support in practice for Green Party nominee Ralph Nader and Pat Buchanan, the likely Reform Party candidate.

Just over one-third surveyed said they would consider voting for a third-party candidate. But with attention increasingly focusing on the major-party candidates, Nader drew just 5% among all voters, while Buchanan attracted only 2%. (Among likely voters, Nader falls to 4%, Buchanan to 1%.)

Bush’s 5-point lead among all voters represents a gain for Gore since the last Times survey in June, when the Republican held a 10-point advantage. (The two surveys aren’t exactly comparable because the earlier one measured sentiments about just Bush and Gore, not Nader and Buchanan.) Gore improved his position most among voters in the East and the Midwest, the survey found.

In the new poll, it appears Gore has caught an updraft in public sentiment about the economy and the nation’s overall direction. In the new survey, 80% of voters describe their finances as secure. That’s the highest number in a Times Poll for the past decade. Nearly 9 in 10 say the economy is doing well--also among the highest figures the survey has recorded in recent years.

On the broadest measure, 49% of those polled say the country is moving in the right direction, while 42% say it’s on the wrong track. That’s an improvement since June, when just 43% said the country was on the right track and 46% put it on the wrong track. When asked why they consider the country’s direction positive, voters overwhelmingly cite the strong economy.

Gore continues to underperform with those contented voters: He leads Bush by only 16 percentage points among those who say the country is on the right track. That’s a much smaller advantage than the incumbent party usually enjoys among voters happy with the country’s direction. But Gore still benefits as the total pool of satisfied voters grows. Typical is the sentiment of Daniel Riordan, a retired teacher and independent from Chicago who finds the good times reason enough to support Gore: “He’s been part of a team that has done a lot for the country.”

Still, the poll measures the continuing challenges facing Gore and the breadth of appeal Bush has established in the race’s early stages. At the most fundamental level, Gore’s overall share of the vote remains static at 40% or less. And though Gore has reduced the disadvantage, Bush continues to enjoy more unified support from his own party. Gore wins just under 8 in 10 Democrats, while Bush continues to draw support from 9 in 10 Republicans--an extremely high level by historic standards.

Bush also continues to challenge effectively for ground Democrats like to consider their own. He draws more than one-third of union households and runs better than usual for a Republican among blacks. Bush is maintaining his lead among women: 44% prefer him in the poll, while 39% back Gore.

Strong support from women was crucial to Bill Clinton in his two presidential victories. For now, Bush has reversed that pattern by reestablishing an advantage Republicans enjoyed in the 1980s: Married women prefer the Texas governor by 13 percentage points, enough to offset Gore’s 15-point lead among single women. (Married women are a larger share of the electorate than single women.)

Bush’s strong showing in the poll on the education issue may partly explain his strength among women. In both 1992 and 1996, Clinton held huge leads over his GOP rivals when voters were asked which candidate could best improve schools; in this survey, Bush and Gore run even.

Voters also divide almost evenly between the two on three other issues: gun control, naming Supreme Court justices and maintaining the strong economy. (Forty-three percent say Gore would do a better job with the economy, while 39% say Bush.) Voters give a slight edge to Gore when asked who would better handle the abortion issue.

Each candidate has a clear advantage on some issues that have traditionally benefited their party. Voters strongly prefer Bush on military policy and handling the death penalty; Gore holds comparable advantages on health care (on which he leads 51% to 31%) and Social Security.

When read descriptions of the two men’s competing Social Security reform plans--Bush has called for allowing workers to divert part of their payroll tax into accounts they could invest for their own retirement, while Gore wants to pour trillions of dollars from the federal budget surplus into bolstering the existing system--voters preferred the vice president’s plan by 54% to 33%. Even more emphatically, voters by nearly 5 to 1 said they would prefer to use the budget surplus primarily to pay down the national debt and stabilize Medicare and Social Security (as Gore has urged), rather than primarily for a large tax cut, as Bush is proposing.

The initial reaction to Cheney, the former Defense chief, as Bush’s vice presidential pick has been largely positive, the poll suggests. By 53% to 15%, voters say they have a favorable impression of him. And 3 in 5 say they consider him qualified to be president; just 1 in 7 don’t.

“Cheney represents more than a second guy who doesn’t do anything--he is someone who can really contribute,” says Paul Braswell of Madera, Calif., who responded to the survey.

It’s on personal characteristics that Bush shows his greatest strength. Gore holds a significant lead on only one measure: by 51% to 29%, voters are more likely to say he has the experience to serve as president. But Bush, with his “compassionate conservative” message, has wiped out another usual Democratic advantage: Voters are almost as likely to say Bush “cares about people like me” as they do of Gore.

And on other key personal measures, Bush towers over Gore. By significant pluralities, voters are more likely to say they consider Bush than Gore both likable and a strong leader.

Bush holds a 10-percentage-point lead when voters were asked which candidate better shares their moral values and a six-point lead on the question of which candidate has the honesty and integrity for the presidency. Bush’s narrow lead on that latter measure, though, doesn’t reflect the vehemence of the distrust for Gore that comes through among his critics in the survey.

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Presidential Matchup

In the latest Los Angeles Times Poll, George W. Bush has a slight lead over Al Gore as the Republican convention begins.

(Among registered voters)

Al Gore: 39%

George W. Bush: 44%

Ralph Nader: 5%

Pat Buchanan: 2%

Don’t know/someone else: 10%

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Are you certain you’re going to vote for that candidate, or is it possible that you might end up voting for somebody else?

(Among registered voters who chose a candidate)

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Bush voters Gore viters Certain 72% 70% Might vote for somebody else 27% 27 Don’t know 1% 3

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Does George W. Bushs selection of Dick Cheney to be his vice presidential running mate make you more or less likely to vote for Bush, or does it have no effect on your vote?

(Among registered voters)

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All voters Dems GOP More likely 20% 8% 34% Less likely 10 14 3 No effect 68 76 62 Don’t know 2 2 1

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HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

The Times Poll contacted 1,058 registered voters nationwide, including 627 voters most likely to vote, by telephone July 27-29. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and region. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for likely voters it is 4 points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors, such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.

Times Poll results are also available at http://ukobiw.net./timespoll. (BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Issues Index

* Would George W. Bush or Al Gore do a better job of... (among registered voters)

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Bush Gore Providing a strong military defense 61% 24% Improving education 41 42 Keeping the economy prosperous 39 43 Strengthening Social Security/Medicare 35 49 Handling health care 31 51

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Source: L.A. Times Poll